Daily Fantasy Football: Week 15 blueprint and picks
Whether you've played Daily Fantasy on Yahoo before or are giving it a try for the first time, this new weekly column will take an early look at the DFS landscape, revealing whom I like building lineups around, stars to fade, undervalued plays and bargain bin options to help you construct a better team.
Lineup building blocks
Davante Adams ($32) @ Baltimore Ravens
Adams is coming off a big game when he was fantasy’s WR1 last week and now gets a pass-funnel Ravens defense with a bunch of injuries to their secondary. Hopefully, Lamar Jackson (and Aaron Rodgers) is good to go for this game that could easily become higher scoring than the total suggests. The Ravens have allowed the second-most passing yards this season and the most fantasy points to outside receivers over the last month, and Adams’ salary is lower than three other pass catchers.
Kyler Murray ($40) @ Detroit Lions
Murray was outscored by Mike Glennon and Davis Mills last week, as he dealt with a tough Rams defense. Arizona will be traveling during a short week but is the biggest favorite (-14) on the board against a Detroit defense that just lost its top cover corner Jerry Jacobs and is allowing the second-most YPA (8.2) while recording the second-fewest sacks this season.
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Indoors against a beatable defense and coming off a shaky performance (and with James Conner banged up), expect a big rebound from Murray, who’s produced 16 touchdowns with just two turnovers over five games on the road this year.
James Robinson ($22) vs. Houston Texans
Robinson has totaled 39 yards over the last two games, so it’s unlikely his roster percentage is super high this week. But Sunday’s game script should be very different (Detective Davis Mills has gotten 5.0 YPA with a 1:8 TD:TO ratio on the road), with Jacksonville three-point favorites at home against a run-funnel Houston defense that’s allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Robinson leads all backs in rushing yards over expectation and has averaged 99.9 yards from scrimmage at home. He'll get his most favorable matchup of the year on Sunday.
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There are big names playing in the primetime games this week (including Saturday), thinning the pool and making Robinson a sneaky option coming off a couple of awful games and with a salary outside the top-10 RBs.
Stars to fade
Deebo Samuel ($34) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Samuel looked healthy during a TD run last week and will remain involved in San Francisco’s rushing attack (especially with Elijah Mitchell’s status up in the air), but Samuel’s usage as a receiver has been in major decline since George Kittle returned in Week 9; his target per route rate has dropped from No. 2 down to 44th. With Brandon Aiyuk back producing along with Kittle going nuts, Samuel’s targets should remain modest Sunday during a home matchup in which SF is more than touchdown favorites. Samuel’s salary is higher than Davante Adams’.
Aaron Jones ($27) @ Baltimore Ravens
Jones scored twice last week but saw just five carries compared to 15 by AJ Dillon. Jones played 45% of the snaps compared to 54% by Dillon; this looks like a full-blown timeshare. This week Green Bay faces a Ravens team whose lone strength right now is shutting down the run. Other than to be contrarian in tournaments, there’s no reason not to use teammate Davante Adams in DFS this week instead.
Undervalued options
Sony Michel ($19) vs. Seattle Seahawks
Michel’s salary is far too low as LA’s new feature back, something that looks increasingly likely to continue even when Darrell Henderson returns. This week the Rams get a home matchup versus a Seahawks defense allowing the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Michel looks healthy, led the NFL in yards per touch last season and is about to be a major fantasy difference-maker down the stretch in one of the most productive roles in the league.
Rashaad Penny ($15) @ Los Angeles Rams
Penny is one of the bigger injury risks, so he’s more of a tournament play than cash-game option. But Penny started last week and is now Seattle’s lead back as long as health allows. His 16 carries marked a career-high when he was fantasy’s No. 3 back last week, so Penny doesn’t need to be a workhorse to have a ton of fantasy value. In fact, he’s averaged 120+ yards from scrimmage and 1.5 TDs in games he’s been given 12+ touches during his career. The Rams aren’t a favorable matchup, but Penny’s salary is outside the top-25 RBs. Russell Wilson also looked like his old self last week, so Penny has real fantasy upside.
Kyle Pitts ($14) @ San Francisco 49ers
Pitts continues to underwhelm but that means his salary is now outside the top-12 TEs. Pitts ranks fourth in targets and sixth in yards per game among tight ends as a rookie, with low TD production the culprit for his disappointing season. The Falcons will have to pass more than usual this week as TD+ underdogs against an SF defense that shuts down the run but is dealing with injuries to its secondary, and Pitts is likely to have a lower roster percentage given his output since Calvin Ridley left.
Bargain Bin
Gabriel Davis ($12) vs. Carolina Panthers
Davis saw a season-high in usage last week and is set to be busy again Sunday with Emmanuel Sanders likely to miss the game. With a struggling run game (including Josh Allen now likely to run less while playing through a sprained foot) and Stephon Gilmore frequently lined up against Stefon Diggs, Davis is a highly intriguing DFS option at the near minimum.
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