Conviction Picks: Week 17 fantasy football predictions our analysts believe in most

Our analysts reveal the takes they have the most conviction for heading into fantasy football title games to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more start-sit advice, check out our Week 17 position-by-position rankings.

Chiefs air and ground game will help secure titles

It's been a disappointing season for Patrick Mahomes, particularly considering his absurdly high fantasy draft capital. Alas, Week 17 is finally the moment it all pays off! ... as long as you were able to survive the lows. The Kansas City Chiefs offense has been a mess as of late, but injuries to Jerick McKinnon (on IR with a groin injury) and Isiah Pacheco (in the concussion protocol) could be setting us up for a bounce-back performance from Mahomes up against a struggling Bengals defense. In the last eight weeks, the Bengals have ranked top-six in passing yards (2,377), passing plays of 15 or more yards (53) and finally, fantasy points per game (19.86) allowed to opposing quarterbacks. — Kate Magdziuk

The Chiefs offense has been tough to watch the past month, but one consistent bright spot has been rookie Rashee Rice. Travis Kelce has seen more double teams and shaded coverages recently, leading to increased usage for Rice. Over the past five games, Rice leads the Chiefs with a 28% target share and he’s coming off a team-high 12-target performance in Week 16.

Rice has been great in his rookie year. He ranks 13th among all receivers in yards per route run and has been strong against man coverage. This matters because he faces the Bengals this week, who play man coverage at an above-average rate. Rice earns 40% more yards against man defenses this season. He’s a must-start in Week 17. — Sal Vetri

With Jerick McKinnon on IR and Isiah Pacheco missing practice while in concussion protocol, Clyde Edwards-Helaire could lead Kansas City’s backfield Sunday. La’Mical Perine will also get touches, but CEH saw 30 with Pacheco out over the previous two games (and McKinnon was active then). The Chiefs have the fifth-highest implied team point total and are likely to bounce back after last week’s dud in a much more favorable matchup. Edwards-Helaire finishes as a top-10 RB this week if Pacheco sits. — Dalton Del Don

Stafford's hot streak to continue

Matthew Stafford is on a ridiculous run, throwing 14 touchdown passes and just one pick over the past five weeks while averaging 277.6 YPG. In the starts against Baltimore and Cleveland, when you were terrified to use him, he passed for six scores and 573 yards. He is undeniably cooking. No way is this streak of useful performances ending against the Giants, a team that recently gave up three scores to Derek Carr. Stafford is about to deliver a top-8 positional finish in the fantasy season’s most important week. — Andy Behrens

The waiver-wire hero at TE

Maybe you just lost T.J. Hockenson but still advanced to your title game. This is where Gerald Everett steps in and takes you home. Injuries have pushed Everett to a bigger role of late — he’s had eight targets in three straight games — and the Broncos are the worst team, by far, when it comes to tight-end coverage. I figure Everett already has 5-6 catches in his back pocket, and he’s also going to see red-zone targets. And let’s be fair, Everett hasn’t looked bad with backup quarterback Easton Stick. Everett is a plug-and-play option for Week 17. — Scott Pianowski

Diggs to put slump in rearview

It’s been an impossibly cold stretch for Stefon Diggs of late. One that cannot possibly continue. Over the last two games, he’s played on 46% and 60% of the snaps. That’s well below Diggs’ typical baseline and at least has my eyebrow raised at the possibility of an unreported injury. Still, the idea that he’s just not a factor in the offense right now isn’t true. Diggs had the highest target share and first-read target share among all pass catchers in Week 16, per Fantasy Points Data. The problem is he ran just 18 routes. That is mostly game flow and matchup-driven. Since Week 11, Diggs has the 10th-highest target share of any pass catcher. There’s been some misfires by Josh Allen, some drops by Diggs and just a load of bad variance. The underlying metrics that show this is a critical player to the Bills’ playoff push are still there, and when I chart his routes the last couple of games, I don’t see a player who has lost a step. Week 17’s matchup with a Patriots defense Diggs has a history of tormenting in man coverage provides a reasonable rebound spot. — Matt Harmon

Nico Collins ready to finish strong

With C.J. Stroud returning to practice after missing the past two games in the concussion protocol, it’s looking good for him to get back on the field with the Texans in a three-way tie atop the AFC South at 8-7. It’s also good news for Collins, who in his last full game with Stroud went off for 9-191-1 against the Broncos in Week 13. Now they get the Titans’ pass-funnel defense coming to Houston, where the Texans have been spectacular — Stroud has thrown 16 of his 20 touchdowns at home. Tennessee is allowing 177.1 yards to wide receivers, fifth most in the league. It’s all setting up like a big game is coming for Collins. — Jorge Martin