Conviction Picks: Week 13 fantasy football takes our analysts believe in the most
Our analysts reveal the fantasy football takes they have the most conviction for heading into Week 13 to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more sit-start advice, check out our rankings hub.
Isiah Pacheco will be a league-winner
This man just keeps improving. His glow up this season has been fun to watch. Pacheco is now a three-down back in one of the league’s best offenses. Pacheco saw a season-high 71% of the routes run in Week 12. This led to a strong five-catch performance and based on his routes run this type of production can remain consistent.
Pacheco also played a season-high 79% of the snaps and handled at least 75% of the carries for the third straight game. He’s earned 19 opportunities per game during this time. Pacheco is a six-point favorite or higher in five of his next six games. In similar spots in his career as the starter, Pacheco averages over 14 points. He’s set up to be a league-winner down the stretch. — Sal Vetri
Zack Moss is a top-10 RB this week
Welcome back to starting fantasy lineups, Zack Moss! After being relegated to backup duties in the return of Jonathan Taylor, Moss will officially be asked to resume his role atop the lineup in Week 13. As Taylor is out tending to a thumb injury, Moss is in a prime spot for another monster game against the Tennessee Titans. Though the Titans haven’t been a matchup to specifically target this year, you’d never guess it based on Moss’ first outing against them back in Week 5, when he posted a career-high 32.5 fantasy points. He totaled 195 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 25 touches in that game, primed to once again take on lead duties on a Colts offense with the 10th-highest run play percentage in the league. Moss has ranked top 12 among running backs this season with a 21% missed forced tackle rate, 3.1 yards after contact per attempt and a whopping 17 explosive runs; find a way to get him into your lineups. — Kate Magdziuk
Sit Drake London
Yes, it sure looked good for Drake London in Week 12. He saw seven targets — for the third time in four games — and caught five of them for 91 yards. No touchdowns, but that’s progress, right? RIGHT?
Wrong. Even in a week with six teams on bye, it’s hard to recommend London as anything more than a deep flex play. Yes, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Khalil Shakir went for 100 yards against the Jets the past two games, but they had Tua Tagovailoa and Josh Allen throwing it to them.
Desmond Ridder, well, he’s not even in the same paragraph as those two. Especially here.
London will get some extra Sauce (Gardner) poured on him. Even with the hiccups the past couple games, the Jets are still second in fewest fantasy points allowed and tops in fewest receiving yards allowed to wide receivers. It’s hard to do it, but if you hear London calling Sunday, don’t answer. Sit him. — Jorge Martin
Sam Howell in for another big game (and turnovers)
Howell hasn’t thrown fewer than 42 passes in any of his last six games and he’s averaging 306.5 yards per game during that stretch. It’s unimaginable that Washington’s offense won’t find itself in yet another pass-heavy, point-chasing game script this week against the Dolphins. At some point, Howell will probably relinquish the top spot on the 2023 passing yardage leaderboard, but it ain’t happening this week. We’re definitely getting another 300-plus yards along with multiple scores (and probably multiple giveaways) in Week 13. — Andy Behrens
Keep Taysom Hill in your fantasy plans
Trying to pick the right Taysom Hill week often feels like a fool’s errand, but the dots might connect for Week 13. The Lions defense is in a funk, and the Saints offense is looking for answers. We know Michael Thomas won’t play for New Orleans, and it’s possible Chris Olave (suffered a concussion in Week 12) and Rashid Shaheed (thing injury) will also have to sit. This should lead to an increased workload for Hill — acknowledging that his skill set is nothing like the receivers I listed — and we also know Hill carries plenty of goal-line equity. In a tight end pinch for Week 13? Taysom Hill, New Orleans unicorn, is here to help. — Scott Pianowski
Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris are must-starts
The Steelers rank second in the NFL with 852 rushing yards since Week 7, when the team returned from the bye. They had found a coherent, consistent and strong offensive identity prior to ousting Matt Canada. Jaylen Warren and even Najee Harris have been ripping off explosive runs. Remember when Harris wasn’t supposed to be able to create big plays? Warren lightening his workload and improvements on the line post-bye have helped matters.
The Steelers draw a matchup with the Cardinals this week, who were just torn to shreds by Kyren Williams. On the season, Arizona ranks 30th in EPA per rush allowed and 28th in success rate allowed. This is a getable matchup where both Steelers backs can give you usable fantasy days. If one or both finds their way into the end zone, they’ll moonwalk into the top 10 at the position in Week 13. — Matt Harmon
Courtland Sutton should see spike in targets
Sutton has the 38th-most overall targets this season but ranks top 15 in red-zone looks. He’s relied more on touchdowns than volume during his bounce-back season, but Sutton should see more work in Week 13. The Texans have one of this week’s highest implied team point totals and defend the run well, but just gave up 364 passing yards to Trevor Lawrence. Russell Wilson has been locked onto running backs this season, but game script should force double-digit targets to Sutton, when he finishes as a top-10 fantasy WR. — Dalton Del Don
