Colts have fought back into AFC playoff race; staying there might be hard part

INDIANAPOLIS — The Colts weren’t shying away from the implications last Sunday.

By beating two of the NFL’s worst teams back to back, by taking care of business on the road in Carolina and across the Atlantic Ocean against New England, Indianapolis made it back to .500.

The Colts have given themselves a chance under first-year head coach Shane Steichen.

Indianapolis already has one more win than the franchise had all of last season.

“Everything is in front of us,” defensive tackle DeForest Buckner said. “We have seven more games, and it's just a confidence factor knowing that we have a realistic push to make a playoff run.’

The primary goal of this Colts season changed the moment Anthony Richardson landed on his right shoulder against the Titans.

Before Richardson hit the turf, separated his shoulder and ended his rookie season, the 2023 season was all about the No. 4 pick’s development, about building and molding the offense to fit him perfectly.

How that goal might affect the team’s ability to contend for a playoff spot was already changing.

Richardson was better than almost anybody thought right away, prompting a subtle change in expectations. The primary goal in Indianapolis was still developing the quarterback; the Colts suddenly had a chance to see him develop with playoff stakes at hand.

When Richardson went down, those possibilities felt more remote, particularly as Indianapolis dropped three straight games to fall to 3-5 heading into a Carolina-New England stretch far more grueling because of the travel involved than the opponents.

If the Colts had dropped either game, their playoff chances would be remote.

The NFL has used a 17-game schedule since 2021. In the first two seasons, only one of the seven teams that started the season 4-6, the 2021 Philadelphia Eagles, made the playoffs; four of the 11 teams that started the season 5-5 ended up in a conference's seven-team playoff field.

“Being able to get two in a row, we put ourselves in a good position,” tight end Mo Alie-Cox said. “We are in the thick of the playoff race.”

Falling to 4-6 would have been even more costly in a deep 2023 AFC.

Eight AFC teams are above .500 as the Colts head into the bye week; three more, a list that includes Indianapolis, sit right at .500. Only seven teams make the playoffs, meaning there’s already a crowded field developing for the three wild card spots. That's where the Colts will likely have to earn a postseason spot for the first time since 2020.

Indianapolis has already lost both of its games to the Jaguars (6-3) this season, meaning that Jacksonville’s 1.5-game lead in the standings is more like 2.5, since the Colts have to finish a game ahead of the Jaguars to win the AFC South title.

“You look at the standings, but you’ve got to take it one week at a time and focus on what you can focus on,” Steichen said. “That’s winning one week at a time and being focused on being 1-0 every single week. Once you get towards the end — Week 15, Week 16, Week 17 — you see where it goes, and then it really turns into that playoff atmosphere.”

The Colts have some work to do to stay in the race.

Indianapolis has won the last two weeks despite dismal offensive performances behind backup quarterback Gardner Minshew, riding a defense that was able to take advantage of two of the NFL's worst offenses.

And the back seven games of the Indianapolis schedule suddenly look a little more formidable than they did a couple weeks ago. Four of the Colts’ seven opponents have records at .500 or above — Cincinnati (which just lost quarterback Joe Burros for the rest of the season due to injury), Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Houston — and although the Tennessee Titans seem to be a mess right now, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons are only a half-game and a game out of first place in the AFC South.

“I think you start playing your best football in November and December, and you start climbing,” Steichen said. “You kind of find out about teams late second half of the season.”

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If the Colts are going to make a playoff run, the offense must be better, and a secondary that has struggled recently against passing games that weren’t as moribund as Carolina or New England is going to have to build on the momentum of the past two weeks.

“Self-scout is huge in these bye weeks,” Steichen said. “You can take a lot away from it, get better.”

The Colts have to find ways to be better in the passing game, force teams to stop loading up against Jonathan Taylor, stick in coverage against good receiving corps and stop the run, although getting Grover Stewart back from suspension in early December should help fortify the line of scrimmage.

It’s a long list of things to fix.

But few expected the Colts to be here in the first place, sitting at 5-5 and a half-game out of the seventh seed.

“Let's get in the playoffs and give ourselves a chance,” Minshew said.

A chance only a few thought would be there.

AFC playoff standings through Week 10

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts are in thick of AFC playoff race; staying might be hard part