Colorado State football's 2024 win total line is 6.5. Will the Rams hit the over or under?
What's in store for the Colorado State football team in 2024?
Will the Rams finally make it back to a bowl game for the first time since 2017? Or will it be another letdown of a season?
The early betting lines suggest it will be a solid season for the Rams with postseason play likely.
Both Action Network and FanDuel have set CSU's over/under win total line at 6.5 for 2024.
Here's a pro-con argument for why the Rams will hit the over or the under on that mark:
Why CSU football will fall short of 6.5 wins
There's a bit of a "believe it when I see it" vibe from fans right now, and it's understandable after six losing seasons in a row. The Rams almost made a breakthrough last season but ended up 5-7 after going 1-3 in games decided on the final possession.
The 2024 squad is without a lot of talent that was key in the 2023 season. The defense, which allowed nearly 30 points per game, lost a couple of its best players to the NFL in defensive end Mohamed Kamara and cornerback Chigozie Anusiem. Freshman starting cornerback TJ Crandall also transferred (to West Virginia).
CSU allowed far too many big plays last season, and there's plenty of youth on the defensive line and question marks at cornerback. If the defense falters again, it's hard to see a path to the over.
The Rams' offense made some strides a year ago but turned the ball over far too often. CSU threw 18 interceptions (16 by Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi) and was boom-or-bust with either big plays or quick drives that ended in turnovers or punts. Those helped put the defense in bad spots, too.
CSU has lost more than 2,000 receiving yards (of 3,678 in total) from last season, highlighted by the departures of tight end Dallin Holker (767 yards) to the NFL and receivers Justus Ross-Simmons (724 yards) and Louis Brown (481 yards) to transfers. Those three also accounted for 14 total touchdown receptions. That's a lot of productivity to replace.
More: Two Colorado State football players sign with teams after NFL draft
The Rams will need efficiency on offense in 2024 and could hit hurdles with those departures and the learning-on-the-job Fowler-Nicolosi.
All the talent lost on both sides of the ball will be tough to overcome for a team that was already battling on the thinnest of margins.
The Sept. 14 home game against rival Colorado will be emotionally charged and a loss there could have negative, lasting impacts on the season. It's a tough road schedule, so any home hiccups quickly reduce the margin for error in getting to the total.
And hey, with a line of 6.5, CSU could hit just under and still return to bowl eligibility with a 6-6 record.
Why CSU football will surpass 6.5 wins
CSU was right there a year ago. Many key players went through that experience and will have learned. In Year 3 under Jay Norvell, the Rams will have honed the scheme and fine-tuned around the edges.
Yes, the defense has some young players stepping into key roles, but they are talented young players. This staff has been landing recruiting classes at or near the top of the rankings in the Mountain West for three years and now they've been seasoned to step into their roles.
Nuer Gatkuoth (defensive end) and Buom Jock (linebacker) have star potential. Isaiah Essissima could thrive at corner as youngsters like Dylan Phelps and Jaylen Gardner show why CSU was so excited to land them in recruiting. Young doesn't necessarily mean not ready to compete. "If you're good enough, you're old enough," the old saying goes.
Plus, some key veterans such as Jack Howell, Henry Blackburn, Cam Bariteau and Chase Wilson are still the core of a defense that will be hungry to prove itself. The defense has learned from last season and will make significant strides.
Offensively, Fowler-Nicolosi brought an explosiveness to the offense not seen in years. His 3,460 yards was fourth-most in a season in CSU history and by far the most as a freshman. A full offseason of practice reps in spring and fall will help clean up some of the turnovers.
And, sure, CSU lost some offensive weapons but returned the most important one in Tory Horton. He had 1,136 receiving yards last season (seventh-most in CSU history) and in just three seasons will likely leave as one of the most prolific receivers in school history after the 2024 season.
The Rams have experience (Dylan Goffney, Donovan Ollie) at the spot, plus intriguing youngsters in Armani Winfield (Baylor transfer), Caleb Goodie and Jamari Person, among others.
CSU also has a stable of talented running backs and a big offensive line, both of which will help the offense control games.
Don't overlook CSU's special teams, with good, consistent performers at kicker and punter and one of the best returners in the nation in Horton. Hidden yardage on special teams can swing tight games in CSU's favor.
The Rams play seven home games and all are winnable. Plus, six CSU opponents are under first-year head coaches. Dominate at home and steal 1-3 road wins and the Rams quickly jump over that line.
2024 Colorado State football schedule
Aug. 31: At Texas
Sept. 7: Vs. Northern Colorado at Canvas Stadium (Ag Day)
Sept. 14: Vs. Colorado at Canvas Stadium (green out)
Sept. 21: Vs. UTEP at Canvas Stadium ("state pride" day)
Sept. 28: Bye
Oct. 5: At Oregon State
Oct. 12: Vs. San Jose State at Canvas Stadium
Oct. 19: At Air Force
Oct. 26: Vs. New Mexico at Canvas Stadium (homecoming)
Nov. 2: At Nevada
Nov. 9: Bye
Nov. 16: Vs. Wyoming at Canvas Stadium
Nov. 23: At Fresno State
Nov. 30: Vs. Utah State at Canvas Stadium (senior day)
Follow sports reporter Kevin Lytle on X and Instagram @Kevin_Lytle.
This article originally appeared on Fort Collins Coloradoan: Will CSU football hit the over or under on team's 2024 win total line?
