College Football Week 5 Best Bets - Notre Dame at Duke
Will Notre Dame continue domination of ACC?
Notre Dame has won 29 straight games against ACC opponents, but Vaughn Dalzell and Drew Dinsick believe Duke can put up a fight against the Fighting Irish.
Those of us holding Notre Dame +3.5 tickets were holding our breath at the end of their game against Ohio State when the lateral game started. Luckily, no sketchy business occurred, and we cashed our +3.5 bets. That brings us to an astounding 4-1 betting on Notre Dame this season. The lone loss came from their game against Central Michigan, where they failed to cover the spread.
It will be difficult for Notre Dame to rebound after such a gut-wrenching loss last week. Unfortunately, they must travel to Durham to take on a really good Duke team. A team that has started 4-0 and genuinely believes they can win the ACC.
Notre Dame (-5.5) at Duke | O/U 52.5 (-110)
When I started handicapping this game, I genuinely had no initial leans. From what I’ve seen on the field, both teams should be proud of what they put out there. Yes, Notre Dame losing to Ohio State in that fashion is tough, but they played so well throughout that game. Ohio State is an excellent team; going toe-to-toe with them speaks volumes.
Duke started their season with a bang, decisively beating Clemson. They followed that up with three blowout wins. It’s no surprise, but Mike Elko has coached up a really good football team. Led by Riley Leonard, they will be a force to be reckoned with all season.
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This game might come down to a battle of the quarterbacks. So far this season, PFF.com has Riley Leonard rated as the 15th-best quarterback and Sam Hartman as the 51st. To me, they are much closer than that. Hartman’s ability to make any pass on the field almost neutralizes how talented Leonard is with his legs.
On paper, these teams are close. There might be something to be said about the caliber of teams Duke has played, but with a win against Clemson, there is some merit to their numbers. Notre Dame is first in EPA margin, and Duke is third.
This was one of the more difficult handicaps of Notre Dame this season. I imagine Audric Estime has a big game. I’d probably be interested in betting on him to rush for 100 or more yards at +108. Duke has a PFF rush defense grade of 64.6, 111th in the country. They allowed Clemson’s Will Shipley to rush for over 100 yards and the running backs from UConn and Northwestern to succeed in limited action.
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If this Duke team had a weakness, it would be their run defense. That’s why I am betting Notre Dame -5.5 (-110). Stopping Estime will likely be a priority for Elko and his defense. The amount of attention on stopping the run frees up Hartman and the passing game to get to work.
Bet: Notre Dame -5.5 (-110)
