College Football Playoff Rankings: Has Fresno State Done Enough To Crack The Top 25?
College Football Playoff Rankings: Has Fresno State Done Enough To Crack The Top 25?
With Air Force’s loss to Army, the door is open for the Bulldogs to find a path to a New Year’s Six bowl… if the committee likes them.
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Can the ‘Dogs get their due?
Saturday proved to be a pretty good day for the Fresno State Bulldogs. They reclaimed the Milk Can trophy from rival Boise State, watched the Air Force Falcons trip up against Army, and generally saw their overall resume improve across the Mountain West football landscape.
With the next set of College Football Playoff rankings set to drop soon, could Tuesday be even better? Here is how the Mountain West’s two contenders stack up:
Fresno State Bulldogs (8-1)
SP+ rank: 46 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 40 | Sagarin rank: 53 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 99/124
Best three wins: vs. UNLV (7-2), at Utah State (4-5), vs. Boise State (4-5)
Best three opponent wins: Purdue over Virginia Tech (4-5) on the road, Arizona State over Washington State (4-5) at home, Boise State over Wyoming (6-3) at home
The case for the Bulldogs: While the schedule had been pretty light overall, the Bulldogs may get a good bit of credit for taking down Boise State, a team whose record may be skewed at least a little by hard luck in close games. Wyoming’s victory over New Mexico on Saturday also softens Fresno State’s one loss a bit, as the Cowboys are now bowl eligible, while wins by Utah State and UNLV only help.
The case against the Bulldogs: It may end up being that Fresno State isn’t getting enough help from their opponents. The three opponents on the Bulldogs’ non-conference schedule — Purdue, Arizona State, and Kent State — have three combined FBS wins between them, exactly the kind of haplessness that could slow the Bulldogs’ ascension into the New Year’s six race.
Air Force Falcons (8-1)
SP+ rank: 39 | FEI rank (through Week 9): 43 | Sagarin rank: 50 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 126/125
Best three wins: vs. Wyoming (6-3), at San Jose State (4-5), at Navy (3-5)
Best three opponent wins: Wyoming over Texas Tech (4-5) at home, San Diego State over Ohio (6-3) at home, Colorado State over Boise State (4-5) at home
The case for the Falcons: Air Force did get some bits of good news with regard to the opponents they have beaten. Wyoming is bowl eligible, Utah State moved one step closer to bowl eligibility with a win over San Diego State, and Sam Houston State tallied their first win of the year (albeit against 2-6 FCS Kennesaw State).
The case against the Falcons: Of the teams nominally in the conversation for the Group of 5’s New Year’s Six bowl bid, Air Force’s loss to 3-6 Army is easily the worst one overall. Considering they’d just squeaked in to the initial rankings as it was, we may not seem them there again unless they win out and claim the Mountain West crown.
How do these Mountain West teams stack up against everyone else in the hunt? Read on to learn more.
By Way of Comparison: The Rest of the G5 Field
Tulane (8-1): SP+ rank: 44 | FEI rank: 49 | Sagarin rank: 51 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 92/100
Liberty (9-0): SP+ rank: 43 | FEI rank: 42 | Sagarin rank: 59 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 132/120
Toledo (8-1): SP+ rank: 48 | FEI rank: 71 | Sagarin rank: 62 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 125/130
SMU (7-2): SP+ rank: 34 | FEI rank: 38 | Sagarin rank: 31 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 123/117
Troy (7-2): SP+ rank: 41 | FEI rank: 28 | Sagarin rank: 43 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 83/57
James Madison (9-0): SP+ rank: 30 | FEI rank: 35 | Sagarin rank: 42 | Strength-of-schedule rank (per Sagarin/Sports Reference): 89/95
What are the big takeaways here?
You may notice that, at least by the advanced metrics, there isn’t a ton of separation from top to bottom here. The advanced metrics are most lukewarm on Toledo for the moment and James Madison is still ineligible, but the rest of this group, plus Air Force and Fresno State, are separated by just 12 spots according to SP+ and 21 spots by FEI.
Because there isn’t a ton of separation, it seems unlikely that the Group of 5 will have a huge contingent in the top 25 anytime soon, especially since the Green Wave and Falcons began at #24 and #25, respectively, in the initial rankings last Tuesday.
It also doesn’t help matters that Tulane also struggled mightily with one-win East Carolina on the road, the third straight week that the Green Wave have squeezed out a one-score victory over an opponent with a current record under .500. That isn’t altogether different from Fresno State’s own good fortune since the Bulldogs are now 5-1 in one-score games, but it could work against them collectively in favor of two- and three-loss Power 5 teams.
Know Thy Enemy: Week 10 Schedule For G5 Competitors
Eastern Michigan (4-5, 2-3 MAC) vs. Toledo – Wednesday, 11/8, 4:30 PM PT/5:30 PM MT, ESPN2
North Texas (3-6, 1-3 AAC) vs. SMU – Friday, 11/10, 6:00 PM PT/7:00 PM MT, ESPN2
Tulsa (3-6, 1-3 AAC) vs. Tulane – Saturday, 11/11, 9:00 AM PT/10:00 AM MT, ESPN2
Old Dominion (4-5, 3-3 Sun Belt) vs. Liberty – Saturday, 11/11, 10:00 AM PT/11:00 AM MT, ESPN+
Troy at Louisiana-Monroe (2-7, 0-6 Sun Belt) – Saturday, 11/11, 11:00 AM PT/12:00 PM MT, ESPN+
UConn (1-8) vs. James Madison – Saturday, 11/11, 11:00 AM PT/12:00 PM MT, ESPN+
So what do I think the second top 25 will look like? Read on.
Projected College Football Playoff Poll, Week 10
Ohio State
Georgia
Michigan
Florida State
Washington
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Ole Miss
Penn State
Louisville
Oklahoma
Missouri
Oregon State
LSU
Oklahoma State
Tennessee
Utah
Kansas
Notre Dame
USC
Arizona
Tulane
Kansas State
North Carolina
Given that the committee signaled last week their strength-of-schedule concerns won’t be so easily assuaged, it seems most likely that Fresno State still has work to do. Arizona, for instance, might be underrated here considering they have strung together three top-25 wins in a row (though Washington State has recently fallen off a cliff).
The good news? Many of the Power 5 teams projected between 17 and 25 here could be part of a major shakeup by next Tuesday because they’re on the road for Week 11: Tennessee plays at Missouri, Utah faces Washington on the road, USC faces Oregon on the road, Arizona heads to Colorado, and North Carolina travels to Duke. If things break in favor of the Mountain West, we could have a much different conversation this time next week.
