College football insiders evaluate LSU’s ceiling, floor in 2024 season
There are a lot of uncertainties as LSU prepares for the 2024 season, the third under coach Brian Kelly. But one thing is clear: This is shaping up to be a season of change.
That’s to be expected when you lose a trio of offensive skill position stars to the draft, in addition to multiple defensive starters from a unit that already struggled while also adding new coordinators on both sides of the ball.
But while there are questions, this roster has talent, and it’s hard not to be enamored by the potential. How good — and conversely, how bad — could this season be for the Tigers? On3 analysts Andy Staples and Cody Bellaire attempted to answer that question, breaking down both team’s ceiling and floor in 2024.
It shouldn’t be surprising that a team that has so many questions has a lot of variance between the ceiling and the floor. Staples and Bellaire agree that the ceiling is a berth in the 12-team College Football Playoff, but they have the floor set at 7-5.
It’s unfair to ask LSU’s offense to be as good as it was last year with Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels throwing to fellow first-rounders Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. (And Mike Denbrock, who left to run Notre Dame’s offense, calling the plays.) But it’s not out of the question that this version of LSU’s offense could come close. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier waited patiently behind Daniels, and now he gets to be patient on passing downs thanks to stalwart offensive tackles Will Campbell and Emery Jones. Kyren Lacy should help pick up the slack in the pass game, as should Liberty transfer CJ Daniels. And that line should be able to open holes for a deeper stable of backs.
The real question is on defense. This group was objectively awful last year, and coach Brian Kelly jettisoned the entire defensive staff and hired Missouri’s Blake Baker to perform the overhaul. Thanks to Kelly’s recent comments about the transfer portal, we spent much of this week highlighting how thin LSU is at defensive tackle. Cornerback also remains a question mark, which seems unbelievable given LSU’s history at the position. Linebacker Harold Perkins is the defense’s best player, but the question lingers as to whether he’ll be encouraged to do what he does best (get the ball or whoever has it) or forced into a role that doesn’t allow him to wreak much havoc.
A merely competent defense probably gets LSU to nine or 10 wins. An above-average one puts the Tigers comfortably in the CFP. Anything resembling last year will point them toward the floor.
As Staples and Bellaire note, the biggest questions certainly come on the defensive side of the ball with several holes remaining that weren’t adequately addressed in the transfer portal.
If the defense can indeed take a step forward, the Tigers could certainly find themselves in the playoff mix. But if it struggles once again, it’s hard to imagine LSU wins 10 games for the third year in a row after losing a Heisman-winning quarterback and a pair of first-round receivers.
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