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College football bowl games: Big Ten projections for CFP, New Year's Six after Week 6

kevin skiver, usa today network
·4 min read
6
Ohio State coach Ryan Day shakes hands with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh following Saturday's game.

It's never too early to talk postseason in college football.

Through six weeks of the 2023 season, the standings have begun to take shape. Michigan and Ohio State appear to be on a collision for yet another Big Ten East-deciding showdown in November, while Penn State is looking to finally break through and finish a season in the James Franklin era.

While the Wolverines and Buckeyes will inevitably dominate the conversation as College Football Playoff contenders, several other Big Ten teams are looking to finish their seasons strong and clinch bowl berths. Although Iowa's offensive woes continue to be the epicenter of conversation around the Hawkeyes, they're still competing in the Big Ten West and could well end up playing for the conference again. Wisconsin is also in that conversation, while Maryland seems to be turning a corner in the second tier of the Big Ten East.

Further down the standings, Rutgers is seeking its second bowl in the Greg Schiano era, while Northwestern and Minnesota are fringe teams in the conference.

REQUIRED READING: Michigan football's latest Big Ten blowout of Minnesota may mean more than we think

To earn bowl eligibility, teams must go .500 or better and win six or more games. Some of the teams on this list have already clinched those requirements, and they're the ones playing with the most ambitious 2023 prospects. Others still have some work to do.

All bowl projections based on Big Ten bowl selection parameters, Week 7 US LBM Coaches Poll rankings and Big Ten conference standings. Big Ten teams bolded.

Week 7 college football bowl predictions

College Football Playoff

If the season ended after Week 6, then Michigan (No. 2 in the Week 7 US LBM Coaches Poll) and Ohio State (No. 3) would face off against each other in the Rose Bowl semifinal game.

But the Wolverines and Buckeyes are fated to play each other at the end of the regular season, likely eliminating any chance they would play in an all-Big Ten Rose Bowl. Michigan was ranked No. 2 in last season's CFP, with Ohio State coming at No. 4. Both of them lost their respective semifinal games, with the Wolverines falling in an upset to No. 3 TCU and Ohio State losing on a missed field goal to eventual national champion Georgia.

With Georgia still atop the poll in 2023, that leaves No. 2 Michigan to take the Rose Bowl vs. Florida State, which is primed to jump into the No. 3 spot following The Game. For now, that leaves Ohio State on the outside looking in at the CFP.

REQUIRED READING: Michigan's latest Big Ten blowout of Minnesota may mean more than we think

New Year's Six

The New Year's Six bowls, as a reminder, are the Rose and Sugar Bowls (2024 CFP semifinals), followed by the Orange Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Cotton Bowl and Peach Bowl. With Michigan being the lone Big Ten CFP team in the 2023 bowl season, that leaves Ohio State and Penn State contenting for New Year's Six bowl bids.

Based off current rankings, Ohio State will earn an Orange Bowl bid as the highest-ranked non-Playoff team among the Big Ten, SEC and Notre Dame. The Buckeyes will take on North Carolina, the de facto Orange Bowl participant out of the ACC after projected conference champion FSU makes the Playoff.

Of note: The remaining New Year's Six bowls (Fiesta, Cotton and Peach) have no built-in conference ties, with only one team (the highest-ranked Group of Five team) guaranteed a spot in one of the three bowls. That leaves Penn State with options among the remaining New Year's bowl games. They should earn their way into the Fiesta Bowl — where they have gone an astounding 7-0 all time — against USC. The Rose Bowl-esque postseason meeting will be these teams' last as non-conference opponents.

Remaining Big Ten bowl projections

With the Big Ten's top three teams slated for the CFP and New Year's Six, the next Big Ten team up for selection will go to the Citrus Bowl, thanks to contractual obligations among the bowl game, Big Ten and SEC. Based on Week 7 Coaches Poll standings, the next team up would be Iowa, against SEC opponent Ole Miss.

The rest of the Big Ten bowl game tie-ins, in order of selection, are the Music City Bowl, Las Vegas Bowl, Pinstripe Bowl, Guaranteed Rate Bowl and Quick Lane Bowl. The conference vacates its spot in the ReliaQuest in any bowl season in which one of its teams plays in the Orange Bowl.

Here's how the rest of those bowls project:

  • Citrus Bowl: Iowa vs. Ole Miss

  • Music City Bowl: Maryland vs. Kentucky

  • Vegas Bowl: Rutgers vs. Oregon State

  • Pinstripe Bowl: Wisconsin vs. Wake Forest

  • Guaranteed Rate Bowl: Northwestern vs. BYU

  • Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota vs. Central Michigan

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Big Ten bowl projections for College Football Playoff, NY6 after Week 6