Chargers’ reasons for optimism vs. Raiders
The Chargers return home to Los Angeles to host the Raiders on Sunday in their first AFC West divisional game. Fresh off a win against the Vikings that potentially has turned the team’s fortunes around, maintaining that momentum against a fierce rival is of utmost importance heading into the bye week.
Here are 4 reasons to be optimistic that LA will be .500 going into their off week.
Quarterback questions
Las Vegas’ starting quarterback is unknown as of Thursday morning with starter Jimmy Garoppolo in concussion protocol. Garoppolo played the entire game for the Raiders on Sunday, but was placed in the protocol and did not practice Wednesday.
Behind him, the Raiders have veteran Brian Hoyer and rookie Aidan O’Connell, but it’s unclear which one will get the start if Garoppolo can’t go. Hoyer is a fifteen-year vet who hasn’t started more than half the games in a season since 2014 with the Browns, but he is intimately familiar with Josh McDaniels’ offense from their time together in New England. O’Connell was the darling of the preseason, carving up defenses and forcing some to ask if he was better than Garoppolo if both men were healthy.
If Garoppolo can’t go, expect the Raiders offense to be simplified, either because Hoyer is a limited player or because O’Connell likely isn’t ready to be thrown in the deep end. Even if Garoppolo clears protocol by Sunday, he’s been terrible when pressured, throwing four interceptions on dropbacks where he has a man in his face. His completion percentage against pressure is a measly 36.8%, fourth worst in the league.
Explosive play struggles
Las Vegas has struggled to get the ball to its stars for big plays so far this season. Davante Adams did not clear 100 yards receiving until Week 3, when he took 20 targets for 13 receptions and 172 yards with two touchdowns. Running back Josh Jacobs is averaging a measly 2.4 yards per carry in 2023 after leading the league in rushing last season. That includes a game in which he finished with -2 rushing yards on nine carries.
The Raiders have generated the least explosive plays of any offense through three weeks, with just 2 rushes over 10 yards and six passes of 20 or more yards. The Chargers have allowed by far the most such plays, with 29 total, but they’ve played two high-powered offenses (and the Titans). Against a Vegas offense that may not have Garoppolo at the helm, LA should be able to hold the offense to, at best, a mediocre performance.
As long as they can do that, how the Chargers offense is playing suggests they should have the advantage.
Turnover differential
The Chargers turned the ball over for the first time last week against the Vikings when Joshua Palmer had a ball punched out by linebacker Jordan Hicks for a lost fumble. There have been a few other close calls, namely a dropped interception that led to a Palmer touchdown later in that game, but Los Angeles has primarily done a great job taking care of the ball.
Las Vegas has not, nor has their defense, created many turnovers this season. The Raiders have a league-worst -7 turnover differential through three games, thanks mainly to six Jimmy Garoppolo interceptions. Garoppolo’s turnover-worthy play percentage of 3.6% is 12th-highest in the league.
Los Angeles has been only average at forcing turnovers out of their opponents, with four takeaways through three games. One of those came on a tipped pass that ended up in Kenneth Murray’s hands to end the Vikings game and is probably more luck than anything about the structure of the defense. Still, even if the Chargers play to their average turnover luck defensively, the offense has been secure enough that they should win the turnover battle. That’s generally also a good path to winning the game.
Offensive firepower
The Chargers are third in offensive DVOA through three games, fresh off career performances from Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen. They’ve shown a potent ground game when Austin Ekeler (ankle) is healthy and might return on Sunday. The passing game is humming with Herbert at the controls, including more throws down the field.
Losing Mike Williams (knee) for the season hurts a ton, but this is why Los Angeles drafted Quentin Johnston in the first round in April. Given his modest production early on, Johnston has been encouraging on tape, winning routes vertically with surprising regularity. Much of that has to do with building chemistry with Herbert, which should come quickly as the rookie earns more snaps as the Chargers try to replace Williams’ production. Allen will also draw more aggressive coverage with less threatening receivers on the field, making Johnston’s performance particularly important.
If there were ever a week for LA to work out some kinks, it would be this one. The Raiders are 28th in defensive DVOA – only the Chargers, Bears, Giants, and Broncos are worse. They let Josh Allen wreck shop to the tune of 31-37 for 274 yards and three touchdowns in Week 2, perhaps the most comparable performance to a potential Herbert stat line. If Ekeler can return, the potential for fireworks will only grow.
