C.J. Stroud can indeed win the MVP award, if the Texans get to the playoffs
The stellar debut of Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud has made him the runaway favorite to be named NFL offensive rookie of the year.
Can he take it one very big step farther? Could he be the NFL MVP as a rookie?
As noted recently by NFL senior researcher Tony Holzman-Escareno, only one rookie has won the league's MVP award — Jim Brown, in 1957. Stroud could be the second.
As also noted by Holzman-Escareno, Stroud (with 291.8 yards per game) could be the first rookie to lead the league in passing yards per game since Davey O'Brien, in 1939. (Back then, 120.4 yards per game was enough to secure that title.) While that will help Stroud's case, it won't be enough without team success.
DraftKings Sportsbook has Stroud at 25-1 to win it. Only seven players (Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Joe Burrow, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy) have better odds.
To fuel Stroud's case, the Texans (currently 5-4) need to keep winning. They need to make the playoffs. They might even need to win the division. They possibly need to rocket all the way to the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
Unless Stroud does something truly historic (e.g., threaten or break the single-season passing yardage record), it becomes much harder to win the MVP award without his team capturing the No. 1 seed. In recent years, that's what the award has become — a prize for the quarterback on one of the teams with one of the top seeds in either conference. Now that only the No. 1 seed gets a playoff bye, the quarterback of one of the two No. 1 seeds has become the default choice.
Stroud's case could be aided by, for example, the 49ers and the Dolphins getting the No. 1 seeds. If his numbers exceed those of Purdy and Tagovailoa, maybe Stroud gets enough votes, even if the Texans aren't one of the top two seeds in the AFC.
The revised procedure for MVP voting, with each voter listing five names (ranked first through fifth), could make for some interesting tabulations. If the first-place votes are sufficiently jumbled and if Stroud is No. 2 on enough ballots, maybe he can win it without having the majority, or even a plurality, of first-place votes.
Regardless, the Texans need to get to the playoffs to give Stroud a viable shot at doing something that hasn't been done in 66 years. If they do, Stroud could indeed become the first rookie since Jim Brown to win it, and the first rookie quarterback to ever capture the prize.
