Buy Villanova, Fade Tennessee: 2022 NCAA Men's Tournament best bets
It's the third week of March, and you know what that means! Scott Pianowski is here with the 2022 men's tournament bracket in-hand, ready to give you some of the best bets (and a sneaky first-four play) if you want to make some money on college hoops.
If you like Gonzaga at +300, that's great, but Scott's got the info on why Kentucky and Villanova at longer odds might wet your appetite. Scott's also got a pair of teams for you to fade this tournament, plus he has a pointer on Wednesday night's Bryant/Wright State matchup that you'll want to stick around for.
Video Transcript
[MUSIC PLAYING]
- Welcome to "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It is March 14. It's March Madness. The bracket is upon us. It's in my hands. I'm Scott Pianowski. I'm ready to dance.
I'm ready to give you some of my favorite futures in the tournament. I'll even give you some teams I'm fading, and you might want a game to bet in the First Four. I'm even gonna give you that-- all sorts of fun stuff coming on "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily." It's Monday. Let's get into it.
[BUZZER]
Who's gonna cut down on the nets? Who's gonna win the whole thing? I don't blame you if you bet Gonzaga. And I'm not gonna talk anybody out of that. But I'm looking for a little bit more value.
How about Kentucky, two seed, plus 850? This is not the John Calipari team we're used to. He's used to the ones and dones. He's got all the freshmen.
This year, three of their top four players are juniors, including Oscar Tshiebwe, who's just a point and rebound machine inside. And their analytic profile is so balanced. They shoot 2's. They shoot 3's. They defend very well-- no obvious weaknesses.
And Calipari obviously tested-- battle-tested in March. He's gonna get calls. He's gonna lawyer his way into favorable situations.
I've never really been a Kentucky fan. I swear I'm not trying to get Ashley Judd favor here. I just think they're unbelievable value. And it's a Calipari roster we're not used to, but I think they offer tremendous value at plus 850 over at BetMGM. Let's try to get that. I think that number may be going down, so let's try to get in on that early.
I was in this spot a week ago talking to you about Villanova. I was saying, hey, you can get 25 to 1 on these guys. They've since gone down to plus 1800. I still think it's a good value.
Best free-throw shooting team in the country-- it might be the best free-throw shooting team of all time. They have Collin Gillespie, who I swear was recruited by Rollie Massimino. It's a fifth year for Gillespie, Player of the Year, very balanced scoring. They don't need one specific player to do their scoring.
They defend the 3 very well. So if they do match up with Tennessee-- I know a lot of you are gonna be playing Tennessee. I'm not gonna be playing Tennessee. I'll give you a fade case for them in a minute. But if they met Tennessee, Tennessee relies on the 3, and Villanova defends that very well.
I love the roster composition. I love the experience. They just won the Big East tournament, which was, I think, an underrated conference. And you saw how many teams they got into the Big Dance. Villanova's still, I think, a plus value at plus 1800.
Now, who am I not playing? If you're gonna play Villanova as a three line, you're not gonna play Tennessee on the two line. This is not an experienced team. This is a mediocre free-throw shooting team and a very 3-point reliant team.
And just asking them to hit the 3 at a high rate in every one of their games, you know, to a Final Four or to a championship, I don't trust that. And look at Rick Barnes. I mean, he's just a .500 coach in the NCAA tournament. This is a guy who lost 10 games with Kevin Durant when he was Player of the Year at Texas. I know this from my time in Providence-- not a big-game coach.
I know they have all sorts of big wins this year. But, you know, the tournament is a different time of year. I don't trust Barnes in a key spot. They're gonna be somebody I'm fading.
And just to show you I'm not playing favorites, I'm fading Providence. That's my school. I love Ed Cooley. I love those guys. When I saw their draw, I wanted to throw up. They're playing South Dakota State in the first round.
Providence is a small favorite in that game. And if they win, they probably get Iowa, who just won the Big Ten-- probably the best conference in college basketball. I don't see how Providence gets out of the first weekend. I think South Dakota State could pick them off.
Providence is not a deep team. They only play about six or seven guys. Man, it's been an unbelievable season. But maybe they peaked in the regular season. Maybe their championship was winning the regular season Big East. I'm going to fade them.
Now, a week ago, I was talking about Duke. Do we buy the dip? They had just lost in North Carolina. And I'm just thinking now maybe too inexperienced. Maybe they don't play enough defense.
Nothing fluky about that Virginia Tech win over Duke in the ACC tournament final, and in fact, if Virginia Tech had gotten a better line-- they have to play Purdue in the second round if they win their first game-- I would be telling you to maybe bet Virginia Tech to go a couple of rounds in this tournament. I'm still very interested in that team.
I'm gonna fade Duke. Sorry, Coach K. You know, you didn't-- it's been a disappointing endgame for him, right? I mean, the North Carolina loss, they don't win the ACC tournament. I don't see a Final Four in Duke's future.
I mentioned earlier fading Providence. You can get Iowa over at BetMGM at plus 375 to get to the Final Four. That's gonna be a ticket I'm gonna punch.
And let me just give you one more side, OK? I've been crunching NEC basketball. I've watched more NEC basketball than anybody but the coaches this year. And I've watched a lot of Bryant basketball. I cannot tell you in good conscience that they're gonna beat Wright State.
They might be Wright State. Wright State is a small favorite, about one and 1/2 or so, in the First Four. That's a game that's gonna be played on Wednesday night. Wright State's from Dayton, so a pretty good draw getting that First Four game in Dayton for them. They're sleeping in their own beds tonight.
But both these teams are superb on offense, suspect on defense. They play uptempo. Get in on this total. This game is gonna be played in the 80s. Right now, the total is in the low 150s. At least to win the game, you're gonna have to score 80. I think both teams might go over that number anyway.
Again, they're going to jack up 3's from Bryant. Wright State's gonna play at a quick pace. The defense has been suspect. And Bryant did stop a good Wagner team in the NEC final. They somehow held Alex Morales 0 for 16 shooting. I don't know how that was possible-- two-time Player of the Year Alex Morales. Maybe Peter Kiss should have been Player of the Year.
But anyway, it's gonna be points in that game. You need something to do Wednesday night. So I'm going to tell you to bet the over. So let's just do a little recap.
[DING]
We like Kentucky, potentially, to cut the nets. They're plus 850 at BetMGM. Oscar Tshiebwe will work his way into your heart and just offensive rebound until the day is done. Villanova is still a good value at plus 800-- gonna be fading Tennessee. I am very sadly going to be fading Providence, my team-- gonna be fading Duke in Coach K's final swan song. He's not gonna the Final Four.
I think Iowa's an interesting Final Four bet at plus 375. And, of course, like the rest of the country, I'm gonna be betting over, Bryant-Wright State, First Four, Wednesday night.
If you want to follow me, talk about some of these picks, I'm on Twitter, @scott_pianowski. And, of course, catch all of our great content at Yahoo Sportsbook. And what better time, if you're not a BetMGM user, to get into the game right now? If you put $10 down on any game at BetMGM, you receive $200 in free bets added to your account. You don't need to win that bet to receive the promotion.
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Tomorrow, Minty Bets, the gambling goddess that she is, she'll be back on "Yahoo Sportsbook Daily" giving you winners. Until then, good luck, and good [INAUDIBLE].
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