Bohls: Texas' remaining football schedule is a mixed bag of good and bad for the Horns

I’ve got good news and bad news.

The good news for Texas football is the Longhorns don’t play any great teams in the second half of the season.

But the bad news is the Longhorns don’t play any great teams in the second half of the season.

If you’re sufficiently confused now, bear with me.

“I’m pleased with where we’re at in all three phases,” Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian said early this week. “But we’re at our best when we do play with an edge and play with a chip on our shoulder with something to prove. We’ve got to make sure we get our mental intensity right.”

Amen to that.

Texas’ chances of running the table the next six games are greatly enhanced by the fact that there’s not another Alabama or Oklahoma on the schedule. But its chances of suitably impressing the College Football Playoff selection committee are greatly diminished because the Longhorns don’t face a current Top 25 team and won’t garner much attention or respect even if they do run that table in the diluted Big 12.

And that can be a pivotal factor in what usually becomes a beauty contest as the CFP panel considers résumés, eyeball tests, mutual opponents, strength of schedules and — never forget— brand-name appeal.

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You don’t need to remind Texas A&M of the 2020 season, when the worthy 9-1 Aggies got edged out by household name Notre Dame (10-1) and finished a disappointing fifth to get left out of the playoffs. Those dominant Aggies lost to Alabama, then rattled off seven straight victories, only one of which was a one-score game. But Notre Dame won out with the committee because, well, you know, it’s Notre Dame, where Touchdown Jesus hangs out.

Texas, some would rightfully argue, would never suffer that same fate, and I agree. It is among the sport’s ultimate blue bloods and ranks fourth in all-time wins with 941, one spot ahead of sainted Notre Dame. A&M, on the other hand, is tied for 23rd with Washington & Jefferson, a Division III school, with 771 wins but is the 16th winningest Power Five program all-time.

Since the Longhorns already have a defeat, they would obviously lose out to an unbeaten Power Five conference champion and could even be squeezed out by a potential one-loss champion such as Georgia (two-time defending champion with the nation’s longest win streak), Michigan or Ohio State (similar brand names and from a stronger conference than the Big 12) or an Oregon or Washington or Utah or USC (better conference and strength of schedule).

The only guarantee: There are no guarantees

In the most recent Associated Press Top 25 poll, the Pac-12 and SEC have six ranked teams each, the ACC five, the Big Ten four and the Big 12 only two. It should be noted that 27 of the previous 32 CFP selections were conference champions.

But nothing is guaranteed.

Of the six remaining opponents, only Kansas State's offense is ranked among the top five in the Big 12. And three of those six have defenses that are ninth, 10th and 14th in the league.

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“I think every week is dangerous,” Texas linebacker Jaylan Ford said. “Everybody is going to bring their A game against us.”

They’ll have to if they’re going to have a prayer of knocking off a top-10 Texas team that is balanced and strong on both sides of the ball.

But get this:

According to ESPN’s predictor ratings, Texas has a 27% chance of reaching the playoffs, which are the eighth-best odds behind only unbeatens Oklahoma, Ohio State, Florida State, Washington, Penn State, Michigan and Georgia and even ahead of undefeated North Carolina (10%). OU has a 69% shot at getting a CFP berth.

With its high-profile games behind it, Texas could fall under the national radar through no fault of its own. Blame it on the Big 12, which is not having one of its stellar years with no teams in the Top 25 other than the Longhorns and Sooners.

The Longhorns’ last six opponents are, according to The Athletic, ranked 37th, 43rd, 44th, 49th, 63rd and 78th.

Anyone impressed? "College GameDay" considering showcasing Texas for a third time this season? Expect any of those to be shown in prime time?

Uh, big, fat noes.

Nada.

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While Texas won't be playing marquee games, the Pac-12 and Big Ten leaders will. But that could be an advantage if those two leagues as well as the SEC cannibalize themselves and blemish perfect records. Texas looks like a prohibitive favorite to get in among once-beaten teams, thanks in large part to its double-digit road win over Alabama.

'We want to do something special'

So it is incumbent upon Sarkisian’s bunch to overwhelm, to be dominant, to roll over the opposition, starting with three-touchdown underdog Houston on Saturday.

The Cougars are the team that comes in a lowly 78th on The Athletic’s list. What else would you expect from an underachieving Big 12 newcomer that’s beaten — are you ready? — UTSA, Sam Houston and lastly West Virginia on a last-play Hail Mary.

That’s why Texas is a 23½-point favorite in a stadium in which there’s a strong likelihood burnt orange will be the predominant color of choice in the grandstands.

So Texas very much has something to prove and must retain that mindset throughout the season.

Asked if that’s true, Longhorns linebacker David Gbenda agreed and said, “I feel we really do. We have a lot of talent, and we want to do something special. But you can’t expect this Houston team to come out and lay over.”

Not when Cougars coach Dana Holgorsen said, if somewhat sarcastically, “You can go 1-11 and it's OK if you beat Texas.”

He doesn’t believe it.

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Yes, Sarkisian constantly preaches that his team needs to play to a standard, but what standard? What exactly is the bar for a team that hasn’t won big since 2009? And how does Texas get as worked up over facing a 3-3 Houston team as it did a 5-0 Oklahoma?

“We’re not really playing the school or the name as much as we are the opponent,” right tackle Christian Jones said. “We remove the face and the name from the opponent.”

Kansas State, which has been in and out of the Top 25, is Texas’ biggest challenge on the surface. The Wildcats are the defending Big 12 champions and have almost been an afterthought in their own league, partly because they’ve already lost to SEC middle-tier Missouri and an erratic Oklahoma State club.

They’re only a decent 37th nationally in The Athletic’s list. The Cats are followed in those rankings by TCU, BYU, Iowa State and, in the Big 12 finale at Royal-Memorial Stadium, Texas Tech.

But Texas has faltered before, losing games it shouldn’t to inferior opposition.

Any kind of slip-up would probably be fatal to UT’s championship hopes, given the lack of cachet for the Big 12 in this farewell season and the fact that no two-loss team has ever cracked the CFP. That said, the Longhorns figure to be heavy favorites, maybe even by double digits, in all six of these games.

So that’s the good news unless it becomes bad.

Leave Jahdae Barron to have the last word.

“We’re always somewhat under the radar,” the Texas nickel back rationalized. “But we have another championship game coming up Saturday. See you there.”

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Texas football has to bring intensity against lower-profile foes