Blue Jays' George Springer busts out of slump but concerns about his bat remain

George Springer enjoyed a triumphant moment in the Toronto Blue Jays' win over the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday night, breaking a 35-at-bat hitless drought with a single to centre field.

The knock was far from remarkable, as it came off the bat at just 68.2 mph blooping in right near an incoming outfielder — but it put the Blue Jays on the board and allowed Springer to exhale. The veteran's reaction, and the reception the play got in Toronto's dugout, give a good sense of what it meant.

While Springer must feel a load off his shoulders, he's not out of the woods yet. Even before his slump, the outfielder hadn't performed to his usual standards offensively, and now his season-long slash line sits at .247/.316/.380.

Considering the league-average hitter is producing a .248/.320/.412 line this season, that's an underwhelming performance from Springer. This is a guy whose wRC+ between 2019 and 2022 ranked ninth among all qualified hitters at 143.

Some of what's happened to the outfielder is difficult to explain, as many of his underlying numbers mirror what he did in 2022, when his wRC+ sat at a healthy 132. His walk rate (8.1%) has dipped a touch from last year (9.3%) and his strikeout rate (17.8%) is very slightly higher (17.2%), but there's nothing dramatic there.

Meanwhile, as of Thursday, his contact quality numbers are also closely aligned with 2022.

With those numbers in mind, it seems fair to expect a bounce back of sorts from Springer, and accordingly each FanGraphs projection system sees him producing a wRC+ of at least 117 from here on out.

That said, there is one alarming trend for the Blue Jays outfielder that could make it difficult for him to perform at that level. That trend is his inability to hit pitches breaking away from him right now, and how opponents are adjusting.

Springer has traditionally done an excellent job with sliders and sweepers in his career. Back in 2019, he even led the majors in run value vs sliders (+16), slugging .602 against them. Since 2018, Springer has consistently been in the black against these pitches according to Baseball Savant's metric — but that hasn't been the case this year.

Only one MLB hitter has a worse run value score against sliders, and just seven have done worse against sweepers.

Those results are clearly beginning to play a role in how Springer is being pitched. In July, the outfielder saw the highest rate of sliders and sweepers (36.8%) he'd ever encountered in a month in his career. He got just two hits against those pitchers, striking out 10 times and hitting .191/.273/.292 overall.

FanGraphs classifies sliders and sweepers together and according to its numbers, it's clear that Springer is getting a higher and higher dose.

That graph has a dip in the middle between May 18 and June 18, when his rate of sliders faced dropped below his season average. During that time, he hit .304/.375/.522 — good for a 149 wRC+.

For Springer and the Blue Jays, there are glass half-empty and glass half-full ways to assess the situation.

An optimist might say that Springer has demonstrated the ability to hit the pitches he's struggling with for a long time, and some kind of positive regression is a reasonable expectation. Scuffling against sliders and sweepers isn't traditionally associated with age-related decline as they aren't high-velocity pitches.

It's entirely possible that opposing pitches keep pounding him with soft stuff breaking away and he finds his way against those pitches and punishes them.

On the other hand, Springer is getting exploited at the moment, and he's had more than 450 plate appearances to sort out his current issues without a clear end in sight. While difficulty with breaking balls isn't the most intuitive issue to arise from slowing reaction time, it's possible that Springer is cheating more to get to fastballs or struggling with pitch recognition.

Whatever the case may be, we're going to find out if the outfielder can rediscover one of his former strengths in the weeks to come.

As long as he continues the way he's going, pitchers will give him every opportunity to demonstrate he can still hit pitches breaking away from him — for now that's the best way to get him out.