How Alek Manoah and Hyun Jin Ryu could alter Blue Jays' trade deadline plans
The Blue Jays have been using a four-man rotation for the past month, but they could soon have six MLB-calibre starting pitchers available to them.
A few weeks ago, it appeared the Toronto Blue Jays would be desperate to add a starting pitcher or two leading up to the Aug. 1 trade deadline. But now, there is suddenly less urgency to follow that route.
Tuesday was a fantastic day on several fronts for the Blue Jays. Not only did they carve out a much-needed 4-3 victory over the Chicago White Sox, ending their three-game losing streak, but they also received encouraging updates regarding a pair of key hurlers.
Hyun Jin Ryu, making his first minor-league start after undergoing Tommy John surgery almost 13 months ago, tossed three innings of one-run ball while recording five strikeouts in the Florida Complex League. It was a crucial first step on his road to recovery.
Barring any setbacks, the 36-year-old could be built up as a starter as early as the end of July, meeting his original target of returning to the majors post-All-Star break.
Then, hours before first pitch in Chicago, Blue Jays skipper John Schneider dropped a major bombshell, announcing Alek Manoah as his starter for Friday’s series opener versus the Detroit Tigers. As such, the 25-year-old will make his highly-anticipated return just over a month after being demoted to the minors.
Manoah was optioned to the FCL — reuniting him with Ryu — on June 6 after surrendering six runs on seven hits over just one-third of an inning against the Houston Astros. But his results at the lowest minor-league level weren’t much better, either.
The 2022 All-Star was knocked around for 11 runs on 10 hits and two walks across 2.2 innings on June 27. He fared much better this past Sunday, though, completing five innings of one-run ball while inducing 10 strikeouts at double-A New Hampshire.
A return to the majors after only two starts seems rushed for most. Schneider and the Blue Jays, meanwhile, feel confident about his refined process and mechanics following his reset in the minors. Thus, they believe facing a poor Tigers lineup will put him in a position to succeed.
With Manoah returning, Toronto can shift to a five-man starting rotation again, which may have influenced the decision to recall the young right-hander before the first half concludes. If they didn’t, his spot would’ve required a fourth bullpen day, adding to the relief corps’ already-intense workload as of late.
Assuming Ryu stays on schedule, there is a potential scenario where the Blue Jays have six healthy starters at the major-league level before next month’s trade deadline. And that would be a significant improvement from the crisis they faced at the start of June.
Toronto was forced into a four-man rotation out of necessity precisely a month ago, which surely meant targeting a back-end starter via trade. As the All-Star break approaches, though, the front office could address that need internally.
Ryu, down roughly 30 pounds, is rehabbing with the sole intention of returning as a starting pitcher later this season. So he is unlikely to be used as a multi-inning reliever or bulk pitcher upon his return. As a result, there will probably be an opportunity to roll with a six-man rotation, providing extra rest to all six starters down the stretch.
That would be especially meaningful for Kevin Gausman, who carries a 1.13 ERA with a 44.5% strikeout rate on five days' rest versus his 4.98 ERA and 25.2% strikeout rate on four this season. But he isn’t alone in that regard, either.
José Berríos has also pitched more effectively with an extra day of rest, as his ERA is almost a full run lower on five days compared to four. His strikeout rate is also 5% higher on extra rest.
Moving to a six-man rotation may benefit Manoah as well, allowing the Blue Jays to monitor his workload after he threw a career-high 196.2 innings last season, 67.0 more than in 2021. The same goes for Ryu, who logged only 27.0 innings a season ago before tearing his left UCL.
This recent development likely means Toronto’s front office doesn’t have to pursue a traditional No. 5 starter — like Jordan Montgomery, Alex Cobb or Michael Lorenzen, for example — ahead of Aug. 1. The team could, however, still be in the market for a depth starting pitcher.
The Blue Jays’ pitching depth at triple-A Buffalo is concerningly thin. Casey Lawrence (84.2) and Zach Thompson (64.2) lead the Bisons’ rotation in innings pitched, although each of their ERAs is hovering around five.
That is not good. What is worse, however, is the lack of quality options beyond them. Yosver Zulueta is on Toronto’s 40-man roster but is no longer starting and features a 4.73 ERA in 25 games this season.
Paxton Schultz, acquired in the 2021 Derek Fisher trade with the Milwaukee Brewers, has pitched well (2.74 ERA) in five starts since being promoted to Buffalo and could be an option down the road. First, though, he would need to be added to the 40-man roster, which will face a logjam once Ryu and Chad Green return from the 60-day IL.
There could be a solution for both problems: subtract multiple players from the 40-man roster in exchange for an optionable starter — one that could provide depth at triple-A or make a spot start in the majors if needed.
The Blue Jays attempted to acquire a pitcher of that profile at last year’s trade deadline, landing Mitch White from the Los Angeles Dodgers. But he’s made little-to-no impact thus far, whereas Nick Frasso, sent the other way in the deal, has since flourished as a starter at double-A.
It is a trade that general manager Ross Atkins would undoubtedly want to redo if he had the chance. But he can help minimize that loss by landing a low-risk, high-reward arm — like Los Angeles’ Kenny Rosenberg or San Diego’s Ryan Weathers, perhaps.
Rosenberg, with two minor-league options remaining, falls into the crowd of prospects hampered significantly by the cancelled 2020 minor-league season, halting his development just as he reached triple-A. After regaining his footing in 2021, the left-hander earned his first taste of the majors last season, compiling 10.2 innings in three outings.
The 27-year-old has looked even stronger in 2023, posting a 4.20 ERA and 4.27 FIP with a 26.8% strikeout rate — flashing his impressive changeup that produced a 31.7% whiff rate with the Angels last season — in 75.0 innings over 15 starts at triple-A.
Weathers, who also possesses two MiLB options, features 138.1 innings of MLB experience but has struggled to a 5.66 ERA and 5.42 FIP. The left-hander has successfully limited hard contact this season, though, as his barrel (6.1%) and hard-hit rates (32.8%) rank in the 76th and 85th percentiles, respectively.
There are concerns about his ability to remain a starter in the majors, mainly due to his three-pitch mix and inconsistent fastball command. But he has developed a quality sweeper that pairs nicely with his changeup — two weapons that could help him emerge if his heater improves.
At 23 years old, stockpiling a former first-round selection in Buffalo that still has lots of time to develop would make plenty of sense from the Blue Jays’ perspective.
Neither Rosenberg nor Weathers would be expected to make significant contributions at the big-league level in 2023. They could occasionally provide length in the rotation or bullpen if an opportunity arose, potentially filling former Blue Jay Ross Stripling’s previous role.
By targeting a pitcher of this stature rather than a back-end starter, management could divert its resources to other areas of need, like acquiring a right-handed slugger and another high-leverage reliever.
