Who should Bills take in first round of NFL Draft 2023? Updated expert picks, analysis

As is the case every year, I can’t help but chuckle during NFL mock draft season because so much of it just seems like wasted energy, research and writing.

I fully understand that fans have a voracious appetite for all things related to the draft and mock drafts help feed those cravings, but doing a mock draft before the first and even secondary waves of free agency have played out is kind of pointless because almost every team’s needs change, and every mock draft has to be altered.

Sure enough in the case of the Buffalo Bills, in the month since the Scouting Combine when I last collected a sampling of mock drafts, opinions on what they should do in the first round at No. 27 overall have changed greatly. Of course they have.

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Back in the first week of March, Texas running back Bijon Robinson and Florida guard O’Cyrus Torrence were the primary flavors of multiple mock drafters. Several different wide receivers were projected, as were a couple safeties and at the time, all of that made some sense. Well, picking a running back in the first round didn’t make sense and still doesn’t, but the rest of it was perfectly plausible.

However, now that the Bills have signed free agent running back Damien Harris, interior offensive linemen Connor McGovern and David Edwards, wide receivers Deonte Harty and Trent Sherfield, and safeties Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp, plus lost middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to the Bears, the bulk of those mock drafts - with the exceptions of those that went with a wide receiver because that’s still a good idea - have been rendered meaningless.

With an extra month of important information available on players, plus team needs that are more clearly defined, here’s a new batch of mock drafts for Buffalo’s No. 27 pick.

Jack Campbell, ILB, Iowa

Picked by: Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports

Height/Weight: 6-foot-5, 243 pounds

Things to know: A switch for Trapasso from Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Hjigba, likely because JSH is rising on most draft boards and might not be there at 27, but also because the Bills have a glaring need at linebacker with Edmunds gone. … Campbell led the Big Ten with 128 tackles in 2022. … Many believe he can be a plug-and-play starter from Day 1. … He ran a 4.65 in the 40 at the Combine which was 15th among LBs so he doesn’t have quite the same speed as Edmunds, yet his NextGenStats athleticism score of 89 was No. 1 among LBs.

∎ Trapasso’s rationale: “Campbell is Tremaine Edmunds sized with shorter arms but better instincts. His size and awesome coverage abilities make him an intriguing prospect for the Bills.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: I am 100% on board with the Bills picking Campbell. The only issue is whether he’s worthy of a first-round pick. The Athletic has him 53rd on its big board, meaning pretty close to Buffalo’s second-round pick at No. 59. The Draft Network has him at 76, so early third round, but not low enough for Buffalo’s No. 91 pick. I think in both cases that’s too low. Ideally, I think the Bills should trade out of the first round and try to get Campbell in the top portion of the second round. If they pull that off, plus obtain an additional pick, that would be a great outcome.

Drew Sanders, ILB, Arkansas

Picked by: Ryan Wilson, CBS sports

Height/Weight: 6-foot-4, 235 pounds.

Things to know: Wilson was among those on the Robinson train in his last mock, but made the switch to the far more obvious need at LB and for many, Sanders is the best one in this draft. … Last year he had seven games where he recorded at least five tackles and one sack, most of any FBS LB. … He skipped all the drills at the Combine because of an injury but at his pro day he ran 4.59 in the 40 which would have ranked 11th at the Combine among LBs, and his 37-inch vertical leap would have been fourth.

∎ Wilson’s rationale: “Sanders is a former five-star recruit who transferred from Alabama after the 2021 season and all he did was show out for the Razorbacks. He was an edge rusher for the Crimson Tide but he lined up all over the defense for Arkansas and he’s been a one-man wrecking crew when he’s on the field.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: The same thing I said about Campbell applies here. Picking Edmunds’ replacement is at the top of my list and Sanders may be more of a value in the first round. The Athletic has him 31st on its big board, Draft Network has him 41st. Again, a trade down into the early second round might still net Sanders.

Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina

Picked by: Cynthia Frelund, NFL Network

Height/Weight: 6-foot-1, 180 pounds

Things to know: Frelund changed her pick from Combine time when she had the Bills taking Torrence. … Smith allowed a 47.4 completion percentage against last year which was fifth-best among SEC CBs. … He ran a 4.43 at the Combine, 11th best among CBs. … There’s quite a disparity in views as Draft Network has him 23rd on its big board while The Athletic has him 70th.

∎ Frelund’s rationale: “I am aware that the Bills have a strong defensive back group. I am also aware of needs at other positions. I am also, also aware that Leslie Frazier is taking the season off and Buffalo’s defense might not look the same with Sean McDermott calling the plays. However, this is a team that used at least five defensive backs on more than 90% of plays last season, enduring a lot of injuries. Cam Smith at pick 27 would be a nice upside selection. His change of direction speed ranked in the top 10 percent of FBS players, which helps contextualize his 15 pass breakups and four interceptions off just 70 targets.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: Sorry, I’m not on board here at all. The Bills need a first-round pick who will come in and start immediately and they already have Tre’Davious White and Kaiir Elam starting at CB, with Dane Jackson and Christian Benford in reserve. You never have enough corners, but they can add one later in the draft.

Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU

Picked by: Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network

Height/Weight: 6-foot-3, 208 pounds

Things to know: Jeremiah pivoted from Torrence, and he apparently thinks Johnston will make it to No. 27. … During a three-year stretch at TCU he averaged 19 yards per reception. … Draft Network has him 11th on its big board, The Athletic has him 29th. … He ran a 4.49 at his pro day and at the Combine he had a 40.5-inch vertical leap, partly why NextGenStats gave him an athleticism score that ranked second among WRs.

∎ Jeremiah’s rationale: “Opinions vary quite a bit from team to team when it comes to the wide receivers in this year’s class. Johnston could be the first one taken or slide down to the bottom of the first round. He would give Josh Allen a big, explosive weapon to complement Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: Johnston is certainly a dynamic player with great size, speed and catch radius, though his issue in college was consistency. He had great games, and then would drop passes which hurt his production. Still, if he were somehow available at 27, the Bills shouldn’t hesitate to pick him. I just don’t think he will be.

Jordan Addison, WR, USC

Picked by: Bucky Brooks, NFL.com; Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz, USA Today; Eric Edholm, NFL.com

Height/Weight: 5-foot-11, 173 pounds

Things to know: Brooks switched from safety Antonio Johnson, both Middlehurst-Schwartz and Edholm switched from Robinson. … NextGenStats gave Addison its highest production score (based on college stats at Pitt and USC) of all the WRs at the Combine, but it ranked him 42nd in athletic score, largely because his 4.49 in the 40 was tied for 21st among WRs and his 34-inch vertical leap was tied for 34th. … Draft Network has him 22nd on its big board, The Athletic has him 19th, so he may not be available to the Bills at 27.

∎ Brooks’ rationale: “Pairing the USC standout with Stefon Diggs would give the Bills a dynamic route-running tandem that could pose problems for opponents on the perimeter.”

∎ Middlehurst-Schwartz’s rationale: “Making life easier for Josh Allen is the throughline for all of Buffalo’s offseason plans. A dynamic slot receiver who can threaten defenses at all three levels and lessen the quarterback’s reliance on Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis would certainly align with that mission, and Addison fits the bill.”

∎ Edholm’s rationale: “Addison can win one-on-one matchups and should be an upgrade over the recently released Isaiah McKenzie.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: I agree with Edholm that Addison would be an upgrade on McKenzie and probably on Khalil Shakir as well. If the Bills can’t trade down in order to take either Campbell or Sanders, I think their best bet is taking a receiver because they need to get a guy who can not only impact 2023, but take over for Gabe Davis in 2024.

Calijah Kancey, DT, Pittsburgh

Picked by: Chad Reuter, NFL.com

Height/Weight: 6-foot, 275 pounds

Things to know: He ran the fastest 40 time by a DT (4.67) at the Combine since 2003 so, not surprisingly, he was No. 1 in athletic score by NextGenStats among DTs. However, he was also No. 2 in production score, so he has the total package. … Draft Network has Kancey at No. 53 while The Athletic has him at No. 26.

∎ Reuter’s rationale: “GM Brandon Beane moves up to get the strong and quick-footed Kancey. There’s already social-media chatter about former first-round pick Ed Oliver’s future as he enters a contract year. The team needs another active tackle on the roster to take the reins sooner or later.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: Kancey is undoubtedly a great athlete, but the Bills already have one of those DTs in Oliver. And while Oliver will probably be gone in 2024, I think the Bills need to replace him with a bigger body who can be more of a power presence in the middle. Kancey really doesn’t fit that mold and like Oliver, who was equally dominant in college as an undersized DT, I just wonder if Kancey will be the same player in the pros when he’s giving away 40-50 pounds to offensive linemen.

Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan

Picked by: Bruce Feldman, The Athletic

Height/Weight: 6-foot-3, 323 pounds

Things to know: He led all DTs at the Combine with 34 bench press reps (225 pounds), but according to Feldman, during a workout last offseason Smith did 22 reps at 325 pounds. … He didn’t run the 3-cone drill in Indy but Feldman, referencing the same offseason workout, said he ran it in 6.95 seconds which would have easily been the fastest among DTs at the Combine. … His athleticism score of 90 was second-best for DTs. … The Athletic has him 38th on its big board, but The Draft Network rates him No. 69, another instance where the two sites vary by a wide margin in their evaluations. Either way, he’d be a reach in the first round.

∎ Feldman’s rationale: “They shore up the middle of their defense (all of Buffalo’s interior guys will be free agents after this season) with Smith, a powerhouse who anchored the Michigan defense. Folks inside the Michigan program gush about his strength and agility. One NFL coach I spoke with compared him to former Washington first-rounder Daron Payne, who made his first Pro Bowl in 2022. Smith’s vertical was a bit better than Payne’s, and the broad jump was the same, despite weighing almost 10 pounds more.”

∎ Sal’s thoughts: Smith would be much more desirable to me than Kancey because of his size. This is a big, strong kid who could definitely be an asset against the run. If you paired him up with DaQuan Jones in 2023, that would be a tough tandem to pound the rock against. But this is a player who I think the Bills could get in the second round.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which will come out every Friday during the offseason, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills mock NFL draft roundup 2023: Expert first round picks, analysis