Big Ten preview: Why Michigan football has what it takes it to make national title game

As the Big Ten prepares to enter a new age in 2024, this season will mark the end of a 10-year era where one geographic division dominated the other.

The East has lorded over the West, winning each conference title since the current format’s inception in 2014.This fall, the league champion is expected to come from that side once again with Michigan football picked to finish on top for the third straight season.

But in order to make a return trip to Indianapolis, the Wolverines will have to get past both Penn State and Ohio State, two teams that rank among college football’s best. The Freep previews the showdowns between these three schools, examines the Big Ten’s most noteworthy players and takes a stab at a few bold predictions as well:

Three big games

Oct. 21: Penn State at Ohio State

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In the new scheduling format created by the Big Ten’s office, the Nittany Lions have no protected rivals. If there were assigned one, Ohio State would merit consideration. The series between the two programs has been rather spirited despite the Buckeyes holding a 22-8 advantage since Penn State joined the conference prior to the 1993 season. Three of the past seven games have been decided by three points or fewer and the Nittany Lions won one of those. Of course, that was in 2016, which marked the last time Penn State beat Ohio State. Should James Franklin’s squad find a way to prevail again, it would find itself on the inside track to win the East division in its final year of existence.

Nov 11: Michigan at Penn State

For the second consecutive year, U-M’s schedule doesn’t offer much in the way of delectable matchups. Fans may have to wait until the final month of the season to see the Wolverines face a ranked opponent. The expectation is that team will be the aforementioned Nittany Lions. Penn State is a dark horse national title contender and projected to have one of the top defenses in the country. In Happy Valley, the Nittany Lions will be waiting for what Jim Harbaugh considers to be his most talented Michigan squad. The Wolverines boast a roster stacked with star-level players and remain committed to the same formula that propelled them to back-to-back conference titles. During each of those runs, Michigan brushed aside Penn State. So, the Nittany Lions are aiming for revenge.

Nov 25: Ohio State at Michigan

At this time two years ago, who would have predicted that Michigan would have overtaken Ohio State as the Big Ten’s best? It would have seemed far-fetched then. Now, it’s just a matter of fact. U-M exorcised its demons against the Buckeyes in 2021, snapping an eight-game losing streak versus its rivals. Then, last November, it ripped out their guts in a 45-23 romp in Columbus that affirmed U-M was built to last. The result shocked many and left the Buckeyes with uncomfortable questions about a program that some believed had become soft. Come Thanksgiving weekend, OSU can show that criticism is unwarranted. But when the Buckeyes arrive in Ann Arbor, the expectation is they will be the underdog for only the second time in the past 12 seasons.

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Three big players

QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan

After he carried Michigan during a scintillating season when he drew consideration for the Heisman Trophy, running back Blake Corum established himself as a bona fide star in 2022. But McCarthy is arguably the most important player on the Wolverines. If the Wolverines are going to contend for a national championship, the junior quarterback needs to raise his game to another level. After a run-dominant strategy helped U-M claim the last two Big Ten titles, Jim Harbaugh would like to see a more robust passing game that will balance the offense and make Michigan more competitive against teams outside the conference footprint. Enter McCarthy, the former five-star prospect who threw for 2,719 yards and 22 touchdowns in his first season as a starter last fall. He will shoulder the burden of expectations on a team that can’t afford to lose him. With no experienced quarterback on the roster following the departures of Cade McNamara and Alan Bowman, McCarthy will be counted on to deliver every critical pass this year. The Wolverines are counting on him making it to the finish line because they won’t get there without him leading the way.

WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State

The consensus opinion is that Harrison, the son of the Hall of Fame wideout, is the best player in the Big Ten and a sure-fire first-round NFL draft pick. Harrison spent his sophomore season torching defenses as he made 77 catches for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns, establishing himself as C.J. Stroud’s go-to target after a hamstring injury derailed Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s final year in Columbus. Now that Stroud is the NFL, Harrison and teammate Emeka Egbuka will be charged easing the transition to a new starting quarterback. The competition between Kyle McCord and Devin Brown is ongoing, which has become a source of intrigue. But in Ryan Day’s scheme, the wideouts tend to eat no matter who is feeding them the ball. When factoring his enormous talents, it stands to reason Harrison will continue to feast. Expect him to char some secondaries this fall.

DB Kalen King, Penn State

One of the only players who may be capable of corralling Harrison is Kalen King, a former four-star prospect out of Detroit Cass Tech. King earned acclaim as one of the nation’s top defenders last season by distinguishing himself as a shutdown cornerback. According to Pro Football Focus, no player at his position performed better in single coverage than King. Last season, he allowed completions on only 46% of the passes when he was targeted and led the Big Ten with 18 pass breakups, helping to cut off the side of the field where he was positioned. On a defense loaded with talent from front to back, King may be the best of the bunch to the point that opposing quarterbacks now know it’s best to avoid him altogether.

Three bold predictions

Michigan plays for the national championship

Not long after TCU shocked Michigan in the College Football Playoff semifinal last December, Corum had turned his sights to this season. During a fit of exuberance at a home basketball game, he told U-M fans that the Wolverines “would go down in history” and win a national title in 2023. It was a bold prediction. But if U-M were ever to attain its ultimate goal, this would seem to be the year. With the program riding a wave of momentum from consecutive conference titles, a roster stocked with future NFL players and a manageable schedule, Michigan is positioned to fulfill Corum’s promise. The fact that U-M is one of the few contenders with a returning starter at quarterback only bolsters the Wolverines’ chances. So, pencil them in for a game in Houston on Jan. 8, the date the national championship will be decided.

Penn State makes the CFP for the first time

Since landing in Happy Valley in 2014, James Franklin has led Penn State to 11 victories in four separate seasons. Yet he and the Nittany Lions have never been invited to the exclusive tournament that determines college football’s champion. This could be the year PSU gains entry to the CFP. Franklin has assembled one of his best rosters and a championship-level defense capable of suppressing an Ohio State team that is breaking in a new starting quarterback. If the Nittany Lions topple the Buckeyes in October, they will be in an advantageous position by the time they face their other main challenger, Michigan, at home the following month. The question is whether Franklin can avoid the in-game coaching errors that have hurt him and Penn State in the past. Then again, with a team that looks this good, it may not matter.

Michigan State qualifies for a bowl … barely

After a surprising ascent in 2021, many assumed Michigan State would solidify its standing as one of the Big Ten’s top teams last fall. The Spartans instead unraveled and slogged their way to a 5-7 record that left them without a bowl invitation. The regression was stark, and head coach Mel Tucker couldn’t conjure up anything that would reverse it. Then, this offseason, the Spartans watched starting quarterback Payton Thorne and its best offensive talent, receiver Keon Coleman, leave for other programs. That only introduced more questions about a team that will face one of the nation’s toughest schedules. So, why should they exceed MSU’s 2022 win total? Well, the hope lies within a ground attack that should be improved and a defense that should be more resistant. If MSU can progress in both areas and reintroduce the formula that triggered its rise in 2021, then the Spartans should play beyond November. But it won’t be easy.

Contact Rainer Sabin at rsabin@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @RainerSabin.

For openers: Chippewas

Matchup: Michigan State (5-7 in 2022) vs. Central Michigan (4-8 in 2022), season opener.

Kickoff: 7 p.m. Friday; Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.

TV/radio: FS1; WJR-AM (760).

Line: MSU by 14½.

For openers: Pirates

Matchup: Michigan (13-1 in 2022) vs. East Carolina (8-5 in 2022), season opener.

Kickoff: Noon Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: Peacock (online only); WWJ-AM (950), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: U-M by 35½.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Big Ten Preview: Why this could be Michigan football's year