Big Ten football preseason power rankings 1.0
Big Ten Media Days commence later this week in Indianapolis, Indiana, signaling another giant step closer to the 2023 season kicking off.
It’s the final season before drastic change within the conference. USC and UCLA are set to join in 2024 when the Big Ten will do away with its East-West Division model and move into a brand new format.
With the landscape set to change, 2023 represents a golden opportunity for several teams in the West to book a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game before the road gets a lot tougher.
Will it be Wisconsin? Will it be Iowa? That and more in our preseason edition of Big Ten Power Rankings:
Northwestern
Not much to overthink here, and the biggest story with this program this fall will assuredly be its current off-the-field situation.
But in strictly on-the-field terms, the team finished 1-11 last season, replaced its quarterback (which may be a good thing?), has David Braun in as interim coach after Pat Fitzgerald’s firing and struggles to find and retain talent. Any conference result above two wins would be a massive success.
Indiana
The 2020 season has proven to be an anomaly for the Indiana program. Well, for everyone except Michael Penix Jr who is currently lighting the sport on fire out at Washington.
The Hoosiers suffer from the toughest division in the sport, where things are not helped with crossover games against Wisconsin, Illinois and Purdue.
ESPN SP+’s No. 71 team would do well to improve upon its 2-7 conference record from a year ago.
Rutgers
One thing the Scarlet Knights have going for them is a No. 30 ranking in ESPN’s returning production. It’s a veteran team. The issue is, it isn’t that talented.
Rutgers is down at No. 73 in SP+ but, unlike Indiana, does get a season-opening contest against Northwestern to potentially notch a victory.
14, 13 and 12 appear to be East and West Division’s cellar-dwellers this season.
Michigan State
Consider this question: What is Michigan State football under Mel Tucker?
I have no answer, aside from its impressive 2021 season looking like an anomaly. This year isn’t looking any more rosy than last year’s 3-6 record in conference.
The Spartans are ESPN SP+’s No. 42 team, but lost most of its offensive production in QB Payton Thorne and top WR Keon Coleman. Crossover games against Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska don’t help the cause here. It looks like another rough year for Tucker and the Spartans.
Purdue
It was an interesting offseason in West Lafayette, Indiana. Head Coach Jeff Brohm left to take the job at Louisville, and the program hired Illinois DC Ryan Walters to take his place.
Like many teams in the conference, Purdue welcomed in a transfer QB this offseason in former Texas Longhorn Hudson Card. The bad news is the schedule is a bear: the Big Ten West slate, crossover games against Ohio State and Michigan and out-of-conference bouts with Virginia Tech and Syracuse.
The Boilermakers also lost Aidan O’Connell after last season as well as top WR Charlie Jones and several other top contributors. I like the program’s direction under Walters, but this year will likely be a rocky start.
Nebraska
Finally, a non-Scott Frost Nebraska preview! Enter Matt Rhule who has excelled at every college stop he’s made.
One note: it’s usually Year 2 when we see the program improve greatly. Rhule’s first years at Temple (2-10) and Baylor (1-11) ended up being launching pads for the winning to come.
But it’s Nebraska, a program that has underachieved compared to its talent level for decades.
This year’s Cornhusker team welcomes in former Georgia Tech QB Jeff Sims and gets Maryland, Michigan and Michigan State in crossover games. It feels like a year early for a big jump, but the Cornhuskers could pull a few upsets this season.
Maryland
What’s the first thing that crosses the mind when Maryland football is mentioned? It should be Taulia Tagovailoa, the Big Ten’s second-best quarterback entering the season.
Yes, that was read correctly. Ohio State and Penn State welcome in freshmen, and aside from Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy nobody in the conference is more accomplished, and frankly better, than Tagovailoa.
Maryland actually figures to be dangerous this season after a 4-5 effort in 2022. Its problem is the Big Ten East, where it cannot consistently beat any of the top three teams. I’d go as far as to put this Maryland team as co-favorites in the West. That’s how much the division destroys its chances each season.
Illinois
Welcome to an interesting year in Champaign, Illinois. Bret Bielema enters with a new defensive coordinator, new quarterback and a new core of players after many from last year’s team left for the NFL.
College football fans agree Illinois is in a good place moving forward under Bielema. Unfortunately for Fighting Illini fans, this may be what they call a transition year.
The program is No. 44 in SP+ and No. 86 in returning production. Not numbers that suggest a Big Ten West title is imminent this season.
Minnesota
Look away Badger fans…Minnesota might actually win the division this year.
P.J. Fleck moved on to redshirt freshman Athan Kaliakmanis midway through last season and the youngster flashed great potential, running Minnesota’s gimmicky RPO offense with great efficiency.
The bad news for Gopher fans is a gauntlet of crossovers against Michigan, Ohio State and Michigan State. But Minnesota is No. 31 in SP+ driven by another strong defense. A West title is possible if the offense catches its stride.
Wisconsin
Readers of this website are familiar with the offseason shakeup within the Wisconsin program.
I couldn’t imagine a better slate and situation for the new era to start, with an easy crossover schedule aside from a contest Ohio State and a transfer-heavy offense ready to hit the ground running.
Phil Longo’s air raid will work at Wisconsin. The question is will it work from the start. Growing pains are to be expected when big change is made, which could result in another missed trip to Indianapolis.
Iowa
I am excited about this year in Iowa football. The Hawkeyes reshaped their offense with former Michigan QB Cade McNamara and TE Erick All, welcome back another terrific defense and need to score 25 points per game for OC Brian Ferentz to keep his job.
What can go wrong?
Iowa is SP+’s No. 29 team, but No. 81 offense. A competent offense means a division title this year, it’s that simple. And I think they do it.
Ohio State
Ohio State was a made 40+-yard field goal away from winning a National Championship last year. But you wouldn’t know if it you asked Buckeye fans, as they’re as low as ever on HC Ryan Day after a second consecutive loss to Michigan and no trip to the Big Ten Championship.
This Ohio State team will be very good, led by all-world WR Marvin Harrison Jr. The question is where young QB Kyle McCord takes them.
The support system is there with Harrison and a terrific crop of running backs. If McCord flashes, Ohio State is back in the Playoff. If not, the program will need to rely upon its defense to return to that stage.
I’m slotting the Buckeyes third not because it’s a down year. But because their two Big Ten East counterparts look that good.
Penn State
This is the year for Penn State.
Most of a terrific Rose Bowl-winning defense is back and the offense may take a giant leap with talented youngster Drew Allar under center.
Getting by Michigan and Ohio State is the struggle, it’s the one thing James Franklin hasn’t been able to do during his tenure. But this is the team to do it, and a Playoff birth wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest.
Michigan
What is there to say about Michigan at the moment. The program has won two straight Big Ten titles and returns the conference’s top quarterback and top running back duo.
Any of the top three teams in the East could feasibly win the division and the conference. But it’s hard to bet against Michigan at the moment.
