Betting: MLB Fishy Lines for May 18th
Ariel Epstein breaks down which of Wednesday's MLB matchups has had some fishy line movement and shares her top play for the game.
Video Transcript
ARIEL EPSTEIN: What's going on Yahoo Sportsbook? I'm the Prop Queen, Ariel Epstein. I've got a fishy line for today. It's the late game, the Chicago White Sox on the road at the Kansas City Royals. This line moves overnight $0.10 against the Chicago White Sox from minus 165 to minus 155. 80% of bets then close to 90% of the money has been back in the White Sox, yet the Lions moved in favor of the home dog the Kansas City Royals. The only thing that led me to seeing why this line could have moved in favor of the Royals, it's because of the Royals starter Zack Greinke.
Greinke had four straight road starts. We haven't seen him back at home at Kauffman Stadium in about a month. His first three starts of the year we're at home, then his last four have been on the road. If you look at the home road splits, Greinke only gave up, at most, two runs in his first three starts at Kauffman Stadium. He's had a history there, too. He started his career out in Kansas City. That's why I'm looking more towards an under for the Chicago White Sox though.
Even though it's a fishy line, I still don't trust the Kansas City Royals to keep themselves in a game. They have a bottom 10 bullpen. They don't score a lot with runners in scoring position, bottom 10 and OPS in that category. I'm going to look to feed the Chicago White Sox offense. I'm going team total under a four and a half runs on the White Sox. On BET MGM, it's at minus 125. With Greinke only allowing a max of two runs and nobody when he was at home going over this number in those first three starts.
I look to the White Sox offense on the road. They're averaging just over three runs per game went on the road this year. The White Sox offense just not as powerful, especially because their bottom 10 with runners in scoring position in OPS. Unders have also been more prevalent when playing at Kauffman Stadium. They're hitting at just under 67% this year. Give me the team total under on the Chicago White Sox at four and a half run. That's it for me, your Prop Queen Ariel Epstein here on this Wednesday Major League Baseball. Good luck to all your bets today.
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