Betting the British Open: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele favored, but value lies with LIV golfers

The tension between LIV golfers and the PGA Tour is usually the first topic raised ahead of recent major competitions, but accomplished golf handicapper Rufus Peabody says it has little effect on the odds.

When Peabody inputs the quantifiable data through 250,000 simulations to help him determine who’s going to win and help his earnings, the LIV outrage is barely assessed in comparison to factors including raw results in high-pressure competition.

That holds true for golf's major championships as well.

“I’m high on Dustin Johnson and some of the LIV guys,” Peabody told USA TODAY Sports+ ahead of this week's British Open. “Dustin, at 40/1, is tremendous value.”

Johnson, the two-time major winner, is slotted as a longshot to win The Open Championship at St. Andrews Links’ Old Course.

While Northern Ireland’s Rory McIlroy and back-to-back regular-season Tour winner Xander Schauffele are the betting favorites for the British Open, according to Tipico Sportsbook, Johnson and his LIV peer Brooks Koepka are appetizing betting options to both finish in the top 20 and win. Koepka has won four majors. Another LIV entrant, Louis Oosthuizen, is the 2010 Open champion and a six-time majors runner-up.

“There’s the narrative going on where people aren’t incorporating how these guys play in majors. That, or they feel the LIV guys don’t care anymore because they’re playing for hundreds of millions of dollars,” Peabody said. “What’s interesting, is that a lot of these top guys that went to LIV, like Dustin, Koepka and Oosthuizen — I’m not including Phil (Mickelson), because he’s not a top guy anymore — those guys have traditionally played very well in majors, and they’ve certainly got up for and practiced for the big events."

Open Championship odds

• Rory McIlroy: 9/1

• Xander Schauffele: 13/1

• Jon Rahm, Jordan Speith, Scottie Scheffler: 15/1

• Patrick Cantlay, Collin Morikawa: 20/1

• Will Zalatoris, Cameron Smith, Tommy Fleetwood: 30/1

• Dustin Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen: 40/1

• Brooks Koepka: 50/1

• Tiger Woods: 70/1

Peabody’s simulators placed McIlroy as the definite favorite followed by “the clear No. 2,” Schauffele, who won the PGA’s Travelers Championship and last week’s Scottish Open in successive weeks.

McIlroy finished top-10  in five of seven events, and he’s quite comfortable at the Old Course.

“Having played the Old Course numerous times, expect to see Rory feeling right at home hitting bombs and sinking putts,” Tipico golf analyst Vincent Pepe said.

Added Peabody: “It’s another course that rewards driving inaccuracy. He drives the ball long, not all that accurate … so it’s a good course fit for his game. Plus, he’s been the best player in the world lately. I just don’t show value to him.”

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Thomas Bonk, veteran golf writer formerly of the Los Angeles Times, has covered five Opens and recalls the charm of the legendary Old Course, including the bunkers made by cows lying down in refuge from the bitter winds.

The “Jigger Inn” bar on the grounds is called that because, “You jigger in, and stagger out.” The stone bridge over the course’s creek where Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus stood earlier this week allowed them to peer over grounds so many other legends had crossed.

“To the golfers, it’s like making a pilgrimage … it’s the touchstone of golf,” Bonk said. “Seven holes have shared greens. You can be hitting on the green as someone else is there, so you have to stop play. The main thing is the layout — it's not up and back like we’re used to.

"If you haven’t played it before, it can be intimidating. It’s a good thing they put the grandstands there or you wouldn’t know where the hole is.”

Bonk says the enormous greens will benefit a distinguished putter like Jordan Spieth, whom Bonk views as a strong choice to win at 15/1.

“It’s going to be decided by shot-making, who can keep the ball out of the bunkers, who can hit straight and have a good iron game," Bonk said. “Will Zalatoris (30/1) had a great U.S. Open, and he can have a great Open here, too."

The rest of the field is scattered with questions.

“There’s a couple dark horses waiting to win their first major: Cameron Smith (30/1) from Australia is perfect, those are the right odds. He’s very calm, does not get upset and he has the right kind of game," Bonk said. "Another guy — I don’t even know if he’s got any emotion in his body — is Patrick Cantlay (20/1). He’s got the game to win a major, he's just waiting to do it.”

Tipico analyst Pepe likes Tommy Fleetwood (30/1) as a smart play.

“The Old Course fits his play style spectacularly,” Pepe said. “His ability to keep a low-ball trajectory and perform well in bad weather throughout his career really showed in his T-4 performance at the Scottish Open last week. If Fleetwood can sink his putts this weekend, he’s got a great shot of winning.”

Peabody honed in on how diligently so many Americans tended to their preparation for links golf by arriving last week, with players like Max Homa playing a practice round at a nearby course following his Scottish Open round.

Of those players in the second tier, Peabody favors Cantlay (20/1) over defending champion Collin Morikawa (20/1), Smith and Zalatoris.

“Morikawa hasn’t been playing well. I view Smith as overvalued,” he said. “Cantlay’s a great all-around player, and he’s undervalued this week.”

Don't underestimate Tiger Woods

Peabody thinks he may have undervalued Tiger Woods, with his simulators placing the 15-time majors winner at 1,000/1 based mostly on his inactivity following his near-career-ending car crash last year.

Woods was among the earliest arrivals, playing multiple practice rounds, including one Sunday at the Old Course — where he won the Open in 2000 and 2005.

“I don’t throw him in the trash, but given how little competitive golf he’s played, I don’t think he stands much of a chance,” Peabody said. “He’s someone who can break the model because I’m penalizing him for all this time off. We don’t have a lot of data to go on. I don’t know how well he’s playing, so I think my odds are a little low on Tiger.”

Bonk knows Woods as well as any reporter, documenting his rise from Western High in Anaheim, Calif.

“He’s at the point where all he cares about is the majors, and he knows how to play St. Andrews," Bonk said. “I would not pick him, but I’ve learned to never underestimate him.

“One time, he won there without hitting a bunker during the entire tournament, which is absolutely unheard of. All kinds of players can win it, but it favors people who are familiar with it.”

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: British Open 2022 odds: Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, LIV golfers