Betting: Army vs. Navy Preview
Mark Drumheller and Pamela Maldonado join Minty Bets to share picks for the spread and the total in the Army vs. Navy game on Saturday, December 10th.
Video Transcript
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MINTY BETS: To end the regular season of college football, we've got the ultimate rivalry taking place this Saturday in Philadelphia. For the 122nd time, Army and Navy will face off with the Midshipmen being 2 and 1/2 point favorites and a low, low total set at 32 and 1/2. I'm Minty Bets here with Mark Drumheller and Pam Maldonado to give us their favorite picks for this classic matchup. Mark, let's start with you first. This line is really tight, so who are you leaning with to cover or win?
MARK DRUMHELLER: Yeah, what a game we have lined up here. I love that Army's in a revenge spot. You look at both teams, very disciplined, take care of the football. They want to line up and run right at you. And Navy has a pretty strong rushing defense. And I think that's why we're seeing the betting market back them here.
But I think this game comes down to which team does better outside of their comfort zone, and that's Army. Army has the more efficient offense. They're top 30 in success rate. And their defense allows the third fewest explosive pass plays in the country, an area where Navy's defense ranks 113th.
So this game is undoubtedly going to be won in the trenches, but I think Army has the offense to be able to make big plays and flip the field and really change the momentum. And that's going to be huge in such a low-scoring game. I'm going to back the underdog Army here with the points.
MINTY BETS: Alrighty, I like that pick. Pam, this one's going to be tough. Because I never really see a total this lowly set in college football or NFL. So are you on over or under here?
PAM MALDONADO: You don't see it because we actually haven't seen it. This total is terrifyingly low at 32 and 1/2. The line opened 33 and 1/2, the lowest opening total ever pushed for Army-Navy. What do we do since it is so low and it has been bet down to 32 and 1/2? You still take the under. Because let me give you some tidbits, though, to kind of help you for both sides.
Since 2001, in the 14 matches played in Philadelphia, this series has gone under this total of 32 and 1/2 just four total times. That is 71% to the over on the current line. So why are you still backing the under? Because if you look at the complete series, regardless of location, Navy versus Army has gone under 32 and 1/2 in three of its last four.
So does the under still make sense? Absolutely. Because Navy is third in time of possession. Army is 16th. And you know what helps a low scoring total is no scoring the game. Both the Midshipmen and the Black Knights are bottom 35 in first-quarter points scored with both averaging just shy of a field goal in the first quarter of the games.
But the Army's defense-- this is the complaint that you hear more often is that the defense against the run is so bad. And that's true. Bottom 20, actually, against the run for Army's defense. However, service academy games are just built different. Army held Air Force to 4.3 yards per carry. That's an entire yard below the Falcons' average.
So for me, it's got to be the under or pass until proven otherwise. You can either live bet the game and see what's going on, or maybe you can wait until next season, bet the over when the books set the line at 29 and 1/2.
MARK DRUMHELLER: To recap the picks for America's Game, Mark is going with Army to cover, and Pam is on the under. Bet $10 and win $100 when you wager on any event. Sign up at BetMGM.com/YahooSpecial. New customers only. Must be 21 or older.
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