Betting: Should Alabama and Georgia be on upset alert in Week 5?
Pamela Maldonado joins Minty Bets to give her picks for the two top 15 matchups in the SEC in week 5.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: It's week five of the college football season. I'm Minty Bets, here with Pam Maldonado to highlight the games of the week. Let's start with Arkansas at Georgia. The Bulldogs are 18 and 1/2 point favorites, and the total is 48 and 1/2. What do you think about this one, Pam?
PAM MALDONADO: Minty, this is a lean and not a pick. I lean to Arkansas, +18 and 1/2, because this is a true test for both teams. We're going to find out which side is actually legit. Arkansas is eighth in rushing yards, they're a one-dimensional run-first offense. And Georgia, they're supposed to be ninth-best in rushing defense, but three out of the four teams they have played are ranked 78th or worst in total rushing offense. So the true question is going to be, which one is going to hold true?
We're going to definitely find out. Arkansas, they had 333 rushing yards to Texas. That is a really big number if they can stay anywhere near 250 yards or more against this Georgia supposed defense. I like the +18 and 1/2 on the road.
MINTY BETS: Moving on to the next game, we've got Ole Miss at Alabama. The Crimson Tide are 14 and 1/2-point favorites, and the total is a high 79 points. What is your lean or pick on this one, Pam?
PAM MALDONADO: This comes with an asterisk, because I'm not doing well with double-digit dogs. However, I do love Ole Miss +14 and 1/2, catching the points. Sprinkle some +500 on the moneyline. Lane Kiffin has had this game marked since last year's defeat. I think he's changed his game plan a little bit here. Last year, Ole Miss was super pass-heavy. This year, they are a far more balanced offense. They are sixth in rushing offense and seventh in passing offense.
The big difference is going to be that run game. Because Florida, they gave away the playbook on how to slow down this Alabama offense. You run the ball early and often, you keep Bryce Young off the field, and you're going to have a chance here to pull off the win. Lane Kiffin, I think this is definitely a game plan by design. There's a reason why they're a more balanced offense this time around.
Another big aspect for this Rebels team is the defense. It could actually be improving. Last year, they were 127th in total defense. So far, they are ranked 37th. It is a big test, of course, to face Alabama. But I think if this is true, that they are an improved defense mixed in with their new playmaking abilities on the ground, I like them catching the points on the road. I think the upset is coming.
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