Bellator 300 breakdown: Will Ilima-Lei Macfarlane stop friend Liz Carmouche’s title run?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down MMA’s top bouts. Today, we look at the featured flyweight title fight for Bellator 300.
Bellator 300 takes place Saturday at Pechanga Arena in San Diego. The main card, which features three title fights, airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Liz Carmouche (19-7-2 MMA, 6-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
Height: 5’6″ Age: 39 Weight: 125 lbs. Reach: 66″
Last fight: Submission win over DeAnna Bennett (April 21, 2023)
Camp: The Arena (San Diego, Calif.)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator flyweight champion
+ 10th Planet jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Grappling accolades and experience
+ 8 KO victories
+ 5 submission wins
+ 3 first-round finishes
+ Consistent pace and pressure
^ Comes on late in rounds
+ Improved overall striking ability
^ Switches stance/variates shot selection
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes, takedowns, control
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Works well from top and bottom
Ilima-Lei Macfarlane (13-2 MMA, 12-2 BMMA)
Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the sitting champion, listing Liz Carmouche -270 and Ilima-Lei Macfarlane +205 via FanDuel.
Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, I suspect that we could be in for a strange affair this Saturday.
Aside from both fighters being former training partners, they are also close friends, which could make things tricky.
Don’t get me wrong: as someone who covered both of their last fights in Hawaii in person, I can tell you that these two friends were down to fight each other back in April after DeAnna Bennett missed weight for her scheduled bout with Carmouche.
Macfarlane also prophecized that her final fight would be against Carmouche, so this was a bridge they were both expecting to cross.
Still, I can’t help but ignore the fact that fights tend to get weird when they involve two former training partners – so don’t be shocked to see this go long.
It’s no secret that I’ve been a big Macfarlane fan for all she’s accomplished inside the cage and out, but I find myself leaning toward Carmouche as an analyst who is trying to stay unbiased.
Aside from Macfarlane potentially having one foot already out the door, I suspect that Carmouche’s power and punctuating counters will win the day on the judges’ scorecards. I hope I’m wrong, but the pick is Carmouche by decision.
