Bellator 299 breakdown: Can Fabian Edwards upset Johnny Eblen and join brother as a major MMA champion?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 299.
Bellator 299 takes place Saturday at 3Arena in Dublin. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie..
Johnny Eblen (13-0 MMA, 9-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
Height: 6’1″ Age: 31 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 74″
Last fight: Decision win over Antoly Tokov (Feb. 4, 2023)
Camp: American Top Team (Florida)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Excellent
Supplemental info:
+ Bellator middleweight champion
+ Division-1 wrestling experience (Mizzou)
+ 2015 NCAA national qualifier
+ State champion wrestler (high school)
+ 5 knockout victories
+ 1 submission win
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Will switch stances on attack
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ High-percentage takedown game
+ Solid positional grappling
+ Shows good fight IQ/decision making
+/- 1-0 against Bellator-level southpaws
Fabian Edwards (12-2 MMA, 8-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
Height: 6’1″ Age: 30 Weight: 185 lbs. Reach: 79.5″
Last fight: Decision win over Gegard Mousasi (May 12, 2023)
Camp: Team Renegade (Birmingham, Eng.)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Regional MMA titles
+ 4 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 5 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Athletic and agile
+ Excellent eyes in exchanges
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Savvy southpaw striking
^ Powerful offerings from the rear
+ Strong inside the clinch
^ Strikes well off the breaks
+ Improved offensive wrestling
+ Solid transitional grappling
+ Shows fight-to-fight improvements
Point of interest: Striking with a southpaw
The main event for Bellator 299 features a middleweight title fight between two men who are familiar with the southpaw stance.
Fabian Edwards, the challenger, is a natural southpaw striker who – like his brother – is steadily blossoming before our eyes.
Edwards maintains a decent presence with his lead hand, typically utilizing jabs for setups while keeping checking hooks on a hair-trigger. That said, Edwards arguably does most of his damage from his left side. Whether Edwards is hitting pinpoint crosses off the counter or launching powerful left kicks from the rear, the 30-year-old appears to have excellent eyes and instincts in exchanges.
Nevertheless, Edwards will still need to be on his best behavior from a defensive standpoint opposite a champion like Johnny Eblen.
A hard-working wrestler who found his way onto the mats at American Top Team, Eblen has made some solid improvements since stepping into the Bellator cage.
Embracing the striking side of the sport, Eblen appears to be bolting down the fundamentals of his boxing game. From staying on balance to taking his feet with him, Eblen seems to be getting a real feel for his power and preferred style.
The former University of Missouri Tiger likes to lean on his jab when gauging distances, and will smartly mix things up to the body both with punches and kicks. In recent fights, Eblen has shown off a lot more of his skills from the southpaw stance, demonstrating solid setups in the process (particularly when he walked Gegard Mousasi into a shifting right hand in the opening frame of their fight).
Regardless of Eblen’s choices of stances and tactics, I suspect that his improved head movement off of punches will be more important than ever when facing a pinpoint puncher like Edwards.
Point of interest: Winning the wrestling
Considering that both men aren’t afraid to mix in offensive grappling, no one should be surprised to see this party hit the floor.
Edwards, for example, has made some clear offensive improvements to his wrestling in recent years, demonstrating an ability to mix in well-timed shots. That said, I suspect that Eblen will be the primary initiator in the takedown department.
Akin to former Bellator champions like Michael Chandler or Ben Askren, Eblen comes from the same wrestling program and will be looking to, once again, make his alma mater proud.
Although the former Mizzou Tiger admittedly has fallen in love with improving his striking, Eblen utilizes a very efficient wrestling style for MMA that fits seamlessly into his game. Whether he’s shucking behind opponents off of a bodylock or changing his level for a double against the cage, Eblen – akin to the likes of a prime Kamaru Usman – always seems to make smart, high-percentage choices within this realm.
However, I do warn anyone who is completely writing off Edwards in these phases.
Not only has Edwards shown some wrestling improvements since his fairly one-sided loss to Austin Vanderford, but the Birmingham native has always shown a natural aptitude for jiu-jitsu and offensive transitions. From deceptively agile back-takes to serviceable positional rides, Edwards almost fights like he’s in a lighter-weight class.
Still, I suspect that we see more of Edwards’ defensive chops in this spot.
Not only will Edwards be facing a credentialed American wrestler, but he’ll also be facing someone who rarely puts himself in bad spots.
Continuing his theme of high-percentage choices, Eblen is good about securing safe rides or positions from topside that allow him opportunities to both score with hard strikes and kill the proverbial clock. If Eblen is allowed to grapple with Edwards early and often, then we could be in for a gritty war down the stretch.
Point of interest: Odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and the public clearly are favoring the sitting champion, listing Eblen -550 and Edwards +380 via FanDuel.
Although part of me is nervous to see this wide a line opposite an opportunistic threat like Edwards, I’m also glad to see the Gen Pop start to recognize the skills and potential that Eblen possesses.
He may not have a big name or a flashy highlight reel, but Eblen’s style feels like a solid mix between Kamaru Usman and Alexander Volkanovski. That may sound like a crazy comparison considering that I’m talking about a middleweight outside of the UFC, but Eblen appears to consistently make high-percentage choices on the floor while smartly mixing up his weapons on the feet.
Eblen also carries a more reliable process and has proven to have consistent stamina and decision-making down the stretch.
Unless Edwards is able to find the perfect home for his left hand or catch the champion dipping into a head kick, then I suspect that we’ll see Eblen steadily take over the steering wheel this weekend. Even though a dominant decision is Eblen’s most likely path to victory, I’ll pick the American to eventually break down Edwards with a heavy wrestling attack that earns him a late submission win in round five.
