Bellator 259 breakdown: Will Leslie Smith fight fire with fire in Cris Cyborg rematch?
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the Bellator’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 259.
Bellator 259 takes place Friday at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.
Cris Cyborg (23-2 MMA, 2-0 BMMA)
Staple info:
Height: 5'8" Age: 35 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 69"
Last fight: Submission win over Arlene Blencowe (Oct. 15, 2020)
Camp: Cris Cyborg MMA Fitness (California)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Good
Supplemental info: + Bellator featherweight champion + UFC, Strikeforce and Invicta FC titles + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt + 18 knockout victories + 1 submission win + 10 first-round finishes + KO power + Aggressive pace and pressure + Evolved striking ^ Shot selection and technique + Strong inside the clinch + Solid wrestling and takedown ability + Good positional grappler ^ Devastating ground striker
Leslie Smith (12-8-1 MMA, 2-2 BMMA)
Staple info:
Height: 5'9" Age: 38 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 66"
Last fight: Decision win over Amanda Bell (Sept. 11, 2020)
Camp: Cesar Gracie Fight Team (California)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info: + Regional MMA title + Multiple grappling accolades + Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt + 5 knockout victories + 1 first-round finish + Relentless pace and pressure ^ High output/well-conditioned + Solid striking flow ^ Improved technique and awareness + Hard left high kicks ^ Often off breaks/at the end of combos + Serviceable takedowns from the clinch + Underrated grappling ability ^ Works well from topside
Point of interest: Fight fire with fire?
The main event for Bellator 259 features a rematch for the featherweight title between two fighters who are very familiar with the fires of combat. In their first meeting back in 2016, we saw [autotag]Leslie Smith[/autotag] attempt to fight fire with fire in the opening exchanges with [autotag]Cris Cyborg[/autotag]. Smith paid the price for her aggression with hard and swift Cyborg counters, as the referee seemed to stop the fight at the first signs of trouble. Since then, Smith has continued to steadily sharpen her aggressive ways while still delivering fun fights. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1394745745480118273?s=20 Staying in the Northern California fight scene with her Cesar Gracie stablemates, Smith – who seems like she'd fit right in as a sister to the Diaz brothers – has gravitated more toward Gilbert and Keri Melendez throughout the years. Smith is still a consistent volume and combination threat who comes forward, but she does show a bit more responsibility than before, being more conscientious with her head movement and standing guard. When feeling in stride, Smith will finish combos with a lead kick that she also favors whenever striking off of breaks. But regardless of potential improvements, Smith will still need to be more defensively responsible if she means to weaponize her pace against the ever-evolving Cyborg. Starting off her run as more of a brawling talent from Brazil, Cyborg has found a place to call home in Southern California, working with a nice mix of high-level striking coaches like Jason Parillo and Rafael Cordeiro (both of whom have former world champs on their rosters and resumes). Now, displaying a much more measured approach to pressure, the 35-year-old will steadily stalk forward while managing the distance to her preferred terms. Upgrading her overall stance, Cyborg seems to keep her balance much better, seldom getting herself out of position. Prodding with a jab to enter space, Cyborg needs all but the slightest bite (or sign of blood in the water) to swarm her opposition with offensive waves of hooking punches and body attacks. But if Smith can survive the hard counters that Cyborg keeps laying in wait, then I suspect we will see these two tie up inside of the clinch. Next point of interest: Clinch country
Point of interest: Clinch country
Considering the space where each woman prefers to push into, do not be surprised to see these two end up inside of the clinch. Smith, who has traditionally been very active with frames, elbows and body attacks in close, has also made quiet improvements to her clinch wrestling in said space. Whether Smith's searching for separations to strike or executing takedowns along the fence (as we saw in her last outing opposite Amanda Bell), Smith offers a plethora of potential problems. However, with this space also being within her opposition's wheelhouse, I will be curious to see how much Smith elects to put herself into clinching scenarios with Cyborg. Due to the nature of Cyborg’s game and what it generally forces her opponents to do, wrestling has quietly become one of her stronger skillsets over the past decade. From defensive and get-up fundamentals (especially from the fence) to offensive reversals, the 16-year pro shows all the requisite skills to handle herself within close quarters – particularly inside of the clinch. https://twitter.com/DanTomMMA/status/1395121530426642433?s=20 From unloading knees in the Thai plum to hitting lateral drops off an over-under, Cyborg commands a diverse ability to manipulate bodies in tight that’s hard to rival in this division. And when able to ground her opponents, the Brazilian’s assault only seems to intensify. A no-nonsense grappler, Cyborg prioritizes position over submission. Whether she is attacking or defending submissions, Cyborg does well at killing or creating scrambles on her terms. Typically wasting little time in settling in on top, the newly-minted Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt will apply steady doses of forearm or shoulder pressure, securing her target for the strikes that are soon to follow. When fighting from inside the guard, Cyborg displays intelligent hand-fighting and positional awareness in and out of her opponent’s grasp, making her hard to submit throughout her ground assaults. Smith is a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu purple belt who is scrappy and can scramble from bad spots, but arguably does her best work when fighting from top position. Should Smith be able to score some top time in this fight, then she'll have to make it count while not allowing her aggression to get the better of her, as her propensity to look for damage has costed her positions in the past. Next point of interest: Odds, opinion and prediction
Point of interest: odds and opinions
The oddsmakers and public are siding heavily with the sitting champion, listing Cyborg -1300 and Smith +700 as of this writing. Although I'm admittedly a big fan of Smith for her efforts in and out of the cage, I can't hate on the betting spread above. Despite getting older in both years and fight miles, Cyborg still appears to be getting better from a technical perspective in pretty much every phase of MMA. Smith's durability and pace pose some interesting questions on paper, but I'm not sure Cyborg's wide-ranging counter options will allow Smith to take this fight to her desired depths. The fan in me will be rooting for Smith to survive the early storms and score a giant upset; however, as an unbiased analyst, I suspect that the more likely outcome is for history to repeat itself by the end of the second round.
Prediction: Cyborg inside the distance
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