Behind the numbers: Packers fall apart in fourth quarter vs. Falcons
If you’re up for it, let’s dive into the key stats from the Green Bay Packers’ backbreaking loss to the Atlanta Falcons following a fourth-quarter collapse.
The Packers were able to control much of the game and even had a 12-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. However, their inability to stop the run and move the ball on offense in those final 15 minutes led to their demise.
Here is a close look at the key stats and figures that defined the Packers’ performance against Atlanta.
124: Rushing yards for Bijan Robinson
Any time that the Falcons didn’t hand the ball off to Bijan Robinson felt like a gift. Unfortunately, that was a rarity in the second half. As we saw Robinson, and as Matt LaFleur noted earlier in the week, Robinson is very difficult to bring down, but the Atlanta offensive line also did well at creating running lanes for him. Robinson finished the game with 124 rushing yards, averaging 6.5 yards per rush.
“You guys saw it,” said Matt LaFleur after the game. “They shredded us. Consistently.”
Atlanta’s ability to move the ball on the ground allowed them to control the game. They ended up running 31 more offensive plays than the Packers did and held the ball in the time-of-possession battle for almost 13 more minutes. Even with a lead like the Packers had, it’s going to be tough to win when the discrepancy in these key categories is that massive.
10: Plays for the Packers offense in the 4th quarter
Contributing to those lopsided play and time-of-possession numbers was the Packers’ inability to pick up a first down in the fourth quarter. On three possessions, the Packers offense ran just 10 fourth-quarter plays, going three-and-out on the first two with Jordan Love then throwing four straight incompletions on Green Bay’s final drive.
In total, Green Bay held the ball for only three minutes in that final quarter. Not to excuse the play of the defense in this game, but their job becomes a lot more difficult when they have little time to rest against a run-heavy team. Throughout the game, it was either feast or famine for the Green Bay offense. They either scored or ended up punting rather quickly–which aligns with what we often saw in training camp practices over the summer. Things were either clicking or not at all, with very little in between.
“It just comes down to execution and being better in the fourth quarter and being able to play a full game,” added Love. “I just don’t think we executed well enough in the fourth quarter. Weren’t able to move the ball and convert third downs, and that’s really what hurt us.”
3.1: Yards per carry for Packers RBs
Coming out of the Packers Week 1 performance against Chicago, the Green Bay run game was the biggest concern on the offensive side of the ball. Unfortunately, things did not improve in Week 2. Without Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon led the way with 15 carries but averaged just 3.7 yards per rush. Emanuel Wilson and Patrick Taylor, meanwhile, totaled six yards on four rushes. Running lanes just haven’t been there. Dillon was often unable to take advantage of the opportunities that did appear, and in general, running horizontally has been a disaster for this offense.
There were instances where Love and the passing game weren’t able to move the ball on first down, but the Packers’ inability to pick up consistent rush yards on these early down situations played a key factor in their late offensive struggles. Without early down success, the offense then finds itself in obvious passing situations, and the defense is then able to get into a favorable play call and are the ones doing the dictating. Green Bay finished the game just 3-for-9 on third downs.
“We just have to do a better job of getting the drive started,” said Love. “That’s the end game for us. If we can’t get the ball started, get the drive started, and end up in third-and-long situations, we let them (the defense) get their packages that they want to get off in third-and-longs, and we just didn’t execute when we were in those situations.”
7.1: Yards per pass for Desmond Ridder
In addition to the play of Bijan Robinson, the Atlanta offense did a really good job of keeping the Green Bay defense off-balanced. They were fairly pass-heavy early on, making the Packers honor that aspect of their game. By halftime, Desmond Ridder had as many pass attempts against Green Bay as he had all of Week 1. In the run game, the Falcons ran both inside and out, forcing the Packers to honor both. All of this left the Green Bay defense off-balanced and guessing to a degree.
This is an Atlanta offense that, first and foremost, wants to run the ball, but their ability to do so, coupled with their gameplan, opened up opportunities in the passing game. Ridder averaged 7.1 yards per pass, which this season would rank 13th among all quarterbacks. Drake London had six receptions for 67 yards with a touchdown, and especially in that second half, the Green Bay pass rush wasn’t able to create enough pressure. The Packers finished with one sack and six quarterback hits, several of which came early in the game.
2: Missed Turnover Opportunities
The Green Bay Packers missed out on two interception opportunities that proved to be costly. The first came on fourth down and could have been a potential pick-six for Jaire Alexander. The second missed interception was by Quay Walker, again on third down, and may not have been a pick-six, but it would have given the Packers excellent field position.
“I’m kicking myself for the next day or two,” Alexander said of the play via The Athletic.
“I always wanna be perfect and I always wanna be the best and I didn’t display that today, so yep, a little frustrated. Nobody’s perfect.”
Given that the Packers were in control of the game during each of these missed interception opportunities, and the Falcons still ended up giving the ball back to the Packers each time, those drops didn’t feel like pivotal plays in those specific moments, but given the outcome, they very much were. Who knows how the game plays out if those plays – or even one of them – are made. The ending very well could have been different.
Another missed opportunity came from the Packers offense, who started their second possession at their own 40-yard line following an interception by Rasul Douglas. Green Bay would go three-and-out, with Love taking a sack on thrid down.
5: Yard Delay of Game Penalty on the opening possession
Hindsight is always 20/20, but following a defensive pass interference penalty on the opening play by Atlanta, the Packers were in prime position to put points on the board right away. While the offense then stalled out, they were still in field goal position. However, an inexcusable delay of game penalty went from it being a 51-yard attempt to a 56-yard attempt, and Green Bay decided to punt. Daniel Whlelan’s punt went into the end zone, resulting in a net kick of just 19 yards.
“It was a silly penalty,” LaFleur said. “You can’t have that. Those are penalties that get you beat and obviously, when you lose a game by one point, that’s one of the critical points of the game.”
Early on in the game, and in general with a young offense, the field position battle is important. But even in the moment, the Packers’ decision not to kick the field goal was a big head-scratching. It’s not as if Anders Carlson doesn’t have the leg–we saw him make a similar distance kick during the preseason at outdoor Lambeau Field. Obviously, add in the fact that the Packers lost by only one, and the decision is magnified.
“It was a really long field goal,” added LaFleur.
