Hall of Fame: Mariano Rivera, Roy Halladay look like sure things, but who else could get in?

Every year around this time the names and storylines change a bit, but there are similar feelings of success and disappointment, of elation and condemnation.

There is nothing in baseball — maybe even nothing in sports — that gets people riled up more than figuring out who deserves to be in the National Baseball Hall of Fame.

It, like the game it represents, is still romanticized to the point that a particular Hall of Fame vote is bigger than an endorsement for a prestigious museum. Other sports Hall of Fames can’t match the intensity of baseball’s. For some fans, it’s a hill to die on or a battleground to fight for. In short: People take this really seriously.

We’re a week out from the full reveal of the 2019 class. Results from the annual Baseball Writers Association of America will be announced Tuesday, Jan. 22. There are quite a few interesting new names on the ballot, a couple of whom will get in easily. There are plenty of interesting old names, who will be part of the same ol’ polarizing discussions this week.

With the clock ticking toward those Cooperstown calls, we’re going to dig into how things are looking a week out.

Early returns say 3-4 guys get in

Thanks to modern technology and our need-to-know-it-now appetite, instantaneous tracking of Hall of Fame ballots exists. Ryan Thibodaux runs the Baseball Hall of Fame Tracker with Anthony Calamis, Adam Dore and John Devivo. They seek out and tally every ballot made public by Hall of Fame voters and produce an incredible amount of data to track not only who is close to induction, but which players are gaining or losing votes from which voters.

At the time of this writing, they’ve accounted for 177 ballots, which figures to be about 43 percent of the eventual total. It’s not complete, but it’s close enough to get a good idea of what could happen next week.

Expect three — maybe four — players to get the Cooperstown nod this year, according to the data we’ve seen thus far. Mariano Rivera and Roy Halladay, the two biggest new names on this year’s ballot, appear to be sure things. Halladay has 93.8 percent of current votes. Rivera has 100 percent, which means he still has a chance to be the first unanimous selection. A player needs 75 percent of the vote to get enshrined.

Next is Edgar Martinez, whose case has been contentious in the past, but looks like a good bet in his 10th and final year on the ballot. Martinez sits at 90.4 percent. While these numbers will all go down when we see 100 percent of the ballots, they generally don’t change by more than 10 percent, meaning Martinez should be pretty safe.

The possible fourth guy is Mike Mussina, whose current 81.4 percent is above the threshold but certainly not safe enough when you consider there are still plenty of ballots out there. Mussina has steadily inched toward inclusion the past few years. He was at 63.5 percent last year. If he finishes above 70 percent this year, he could be on a path to Cooperstown by next year.

The controversial three: Bonds, Clemens and Schilling

Aside from who gets in, the main subplot is how the controversial candidates do. Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Curt Schilling continue to be the most polarizing people on the ballot. Bonds and Clemens because they’re believed to have used performance-enhancing drugs; Schilling because his post-baseball career has been filled with political controversy.

As of now, none of them are above the 75 percent threshold on known ballots, which is a strong indication this isn’t their year — though that year could still be coming.

• Schilling is at 74.6 percent, up from his 2018 total of 51.2 percent.
• Clemens is at 73.4 percent after a 57.3 percent in 2018.
• Bonds is at 72.9 after finishing 2018 at 56.4.

Other notables: Walker, McGriff, Helton, etc.

Let’s look at a few more of the notable players on the ballot this year:

• First-timer Todd Helton is feeling the Colorado cold shoulder, getting just 19.8 percent so far. Voters often hold Coors Field against players, because it inflates offensive production, and that appears to be happening with Helton.

• Speaking of Colorado: Larry Walker has one more year after this and is hoping for an Edgar Martinez-like jump in his penultimate ballot. He’s currently at 66.7 after finishing at 34.1 last year, which is a huge jump. If he can finish in the mid-60s, he could have a good chance in this 10th year.

• Fred McGriff is in his final year on the ballot and it’s not looking great for the Crime Dog. He’s currently at 36.2 percent, which we already know will make it impossible for him to reach 75 percent. He’ll have to hope a veterans committee votes him in sometime in the future.

• Manny Ramirez is still on the ballot but doesn’t seem to be moving much. He’s at 26.6 percent, up slightly from final total of 22 percent last year.

• Andy Pettitte is another first-time candidate with PED baggage who is not getting a ton of love. He’s currently at 6.8 percent, which means there’s no way he’s getting in this year. The bigger question is whether he falls off the ballot entirely, as five percent of the vote is needed to continue on next year.

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