Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Our MLS Copa Tejas prediction is in

As Austin FC embarks on one of its busiest parts of the year, the chance for a trophy lays within its grasp in the next week.

It's a tall task, but if the Verde & Black can beat both FC Dallas Saturday and the Houston Dynamo Wednesday, they will raise the Copa Tejas for the third straight year.

But first things first, and a road match at its rival to the north will always be a tough place to get three points.

Here’s what you need to know about the matchup at Toyota Stadium as Austin FC hopes to continue its recent good form, which has seen it tally 13 points in the last six matches:

A healthy roster will only help a defense that's been solid

This will be the deepest roster Austin FC coach Josh Wolff has had since the season opener.

Not only is midfielder Dani Pereira back after missing last week due to a passport issue entering Canada, but center back Leo Väisänen returns for the first time since suffering a foot injury in the first game of the year on Feb. 24 vs. Minnesota.

Both will bolster a defense that has only yielded three goals in five games, though Wolff noted the team’s defensive success is due to efforts from all 11 players on the field.

“It’s not just the backline; it’s not just (goalkeeper Brad Stuver),” Wolff said. “It starts with Diego (Rubio) and Sebastián (Driussi) up front. … The wingers play a big role in that, too. There’s a level of detail, discipline and execution that goes into that.”

Väisänen, who will only be available for at most 15 minutes a game for the next week, adds depth to a center back group of Julio Cascante, Brendan Hines-Ike and Matt Hedges that has largely been excellent.

More: Austin FC defender Brendan Hines-Ike has hit the ground running for El Tree

It’s a stark contrast from a year ago when the club was decimated by injuries on the backline and seemed to have a different center back pairing every week.

“What happened last year was quite unnerving to an entire group, and it was pretty surreal, to be honest,” Wolff said. “Having four options is a good thing. The difficulty is making a decision on which to start each week, but that’s a good problem to have. And having a healthy backline and having consistency there is integral to a team’s success.”

Wolff said he’d still like to see improvement from the defense at home, where it’s given up 10 goals in six matches, but it’s clear after calling the defense the second half of last year “shocking” in the offseason, the club has emphasized it for this campaign.

“The best teams defend and work extremely hard without the ball,” Wolff said. “There are details inside that with our players and what we do, but you have to own that side.”

Ferreira returns for Dallas as challenge for Austin FC's backline

One player the defense will have to deal with that it didn’t when the two teams met on March 30 is Dallas star forward Jesús Ferreira.

Ferreira is still likely working his way into form after missing six weeks and just returning April 27, and he may not even start after playing 90 minutes in a U.S. Open Cup match Tuesday.

But he’s a massive difference-maker on the field — he’s made several appearances for the U.S. men’s national team and was headed to play for Russian power Spartak Moscow in the offseason before the MLS blocked his transfer — and even if the Verde & Black only have to deal with him for a half, he’s still someone they’ll have to always account for.

Hines-Ike noted that Ferreira is a “tremendous player,” but that Austin FC needs to keep doing what it has been to continue its defensive success.

“The biggest thing for us this year has been our physicality off the ball,” Hines-Ike said. “Teams around the league are talking about how difficult it is to play us and break us down, not only from the standpoint of our (formation), but also how physical we are.”

Copa Tejas importance continues for Verde & Black

Even during its rough 2023 season, Austin FC produced results in Copa Tejas matches, and it's obvious when Wolff and the players speak about it that the club prioritizes it.

Hines-Ike noted it was one of the first things mentioned to him when he joined the club in mid-February.

“We have it on our board as one of our main objectives is to win it,” he said. “It was made apparent to me from the get-go just how important it was for us as a group, the club and the fans. So we're taking it very seriously.”

Austin FC vs. FC Dallas prediction

Austin FC 1, FC Dallas 1: While Austin FC’s road defense has excelled, it’s also helped overcome the club’s offensive struggles on the road, where it only has one goal in five matches.

Part of that is due to the Verde & Black having contrasting playing styles of being very aggressive at Q2 Stadium and fairly conservative on the road, but I’m still going to have to see more from the offense before predicting a road win.

And while Dallas sits 13th in the Western Conference and I'm not particularly impressed with its roster, especially if midfielder Paul Arriola isn't available, seven of its eight points have come at Toyota Stadium.

Saturday's match

Austin FC (4-3-4, 16 points) vs. FC Dallas (2-6-2, 8 points), 7:30 p.m., Toyota Stadium, Apple TV, 97.5, 104.3 (Spanish)

This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Austin FC vs. FC Dallas: Our MLS Copa Tejas prediction is in