Arace: Pundits, Vegas agree the Blue Jackets will be back in NHL draft lottery

michael arace, columbus dispatch

Wed, Sep 27, 2023, 6:04 AM·5 min read

Hats off to Ohio State football coach Ryan Day for taking a bit of banter from Lou Holtz and turning it into a national incident. He should be in Congress.

Holtz questioned Ohio State’s ability to handle physical teams. Then, Ohio State beat Notre Dame 17-14 in South Bend Saturday night. In his post-game interview on national television, Day turned an octogenarian’s take into a Freddy Krueger attack against the OSU “family.”

“We’re proud to be from Ohio," Day yelled, "and it’s Ohio against the world."

That, folks, is some masterful and creative use of what is known in the business as “bulletin-board material.”

Bookmakers are giving Boone Jenner and the Blue Jackets 8-1 odds on having the worst record in the NHL this upcoming season.

We mention this because, compared to Ohio State, the Blue Jackets have 10,000 times (or, in the parlance of American odds, +100,000) more bulletin-board material than the Buckeyes. And the NHL season hasn’t even started.

We did some poking around the world wide web to find as many sets of 2023-24 NHL power rankings as possible to get at least a vague idea as to the thinking of hockey's punditry. However, it should be said, if the power rankings are as skewed as the conglomerate lists of fantasy rankings, it’s fair to wonder how many “experts” are following the Blue Jackets on days that are not media day.

(Johnny Gaudreau is ranked 72^nd overall and Patrik Laine 111th overall in a composite that includes, among others, nhl.com, The Athletic, Yahoo!, ESPN and Sportsnet. Seriously? If you’re in a 12-team league and John Hockey and Laine are still available after the fifth round, you should win that league because you’re playing against idiots.)

It remains a worthwhile endeavor to see what others, outside of the market, are thinking about the Blue Jackets. And what they’re thinking is the Jackets will be back in the draft lottery next year. The way-too-early consensus is that the Jackets are one of the five or six worst teams in the league.

A composite list of fantasy rankings has Blue Jackets forward Patrik Laine rated 111th overall.

Let’s take that with a grain of Morton Coarse Kosher salt and check on the real experts – Vegas. As my Uncle Pasquale (RIP) used to say, the bookies know everything, and he knew that better than anyone because … well, never mind. Vegas agrees with the power rankings.

A composite of heavy hitters in the online sports gaming industry has the Jackets’ chances of winning the Stanley Cup somewhere between +10,000 (100-1) and +150,000 (150-1). If you don’t like that bet, you can bet on the Jackets to have the worst record in the league and find odds around +800 (8-1). Your best course of action is not to gamble at all. But if you must, in this particular case of Ohio against the World, take the World.

It was only a year ago that management was laying a heavy bet, with Gaudreau, that the Jackets could compete for the playoffs. A franchise record for man-games lost due to injury combined with some of the worst defensive and goaltending numbers in the league landed the team in 31^st place.

Mangement doubled down this year by acquiring defensemen Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, with the latter being given a lucrative, long-term contract. The thinking went that Zach Werenski had returned to health, and the goaltending could only get better with a revamped “D,” especially with the structure that new coach Mike Babcock would bring.

Blue Jackets management showed its belief that Columbus could be competitive this season when it signed defenseman Damon Severson, left, to a lucrative, long-term contract

Babcock’s predictable fall from grace, combined with Vegas’ view of the team’s relative merit, well, all of this has to be disheartening to Blue Jackets fans. Me, I'm bullish, not on the chance to compete for the playoffs this year, but on the real prospect of building a sustainable playoff team. Last season's tank job brought a world-class talent in Adam Fantilli to stack atop a pile of promising prospects. And it wouldn’t be the worst thing that ever happened to the Jackets if they were back in the lottery next year, as well, because Vegas is probably right – these Jackets aren’t ready to win now. What is more, new coach Pascal Vincent, who stepped into the breach left by Babcock, is an upgrade in my book. This is a man with ability, a heart and a presence. Not a sociopath, in other words.

In the best of worlds, the Jackets take all of the bulletin-board material – some of it supplied right here in Ohio’s Greatest Home Newspaper – and pin it up and rack up 100 points against all odds.

In the next best of worlds, the Jackets recover their identity as a hardworking team, compete every night and improve under Vincent. Given their young talent, on the big club and in the pipeline, this is a team can build into a sustainable threat.

I hope that is what John Davidson, president of hockey operations, and general manager Jarmo Kekalainen have sold to ownership, and that both of them are around two years hence, when the fruits of their labors will be more evident. They have built a top-five farm system in three years. They have made fewer mistakes than either Doug MacLean or Scott Howson. They understand and believe in the power of this market.

More patience is in order, which is sometimes required when you're taking on the world.

marace@dispatch.com