Analysis and predictions: 2023-24 Mountain West men's basketball
Nov. 5—The Mountain West conference has sent four teams to the NCAA Tournament each of the past two seasons, including seeing league champion San Diego State make a March Madness run all the way to the national title game in Houston last year.
If it wasn't already, the league finds itself with a firm grasp on being the top league outside of college basketball's Power 6 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac 12 and SEC) in most analytics rankings.
The hope, of course, is that the trend continues in 2023-24, where the UNM Lobos are picked third in the preseason poll.
The college basketball season starts Monday and Mountain West play tips off in January.
After the preseason poll and All-Mountain West team is a team-by-team breakdown of the season ahead compiled by Journal staff writer Geoff Grammer.
Preseason Mountain West Media poll
(released in October, first place votes in parenthesis)
1. San Diego State (25)
2. Boise State (4)
3. New Mexico (1)
4. Nevada (1)
5. Colorado State
6. UNLV
7. San Jose State
8. Fresno State
9. Utah State
10. Wyoming
11. Air Force
Preseason All-Mountain West team
G Isaiah Stevens, Sr., Colorado State (Player of the Year)
G Jaelen House, Sr., New Mexico
G Jamal Mashburn Jr., Sr., New Mexico
G Lamont Butler, Sr., San Diego State
F Tyson Degenhard, Jr., Boise State
AIR FORCE FALCONS
Coach: Joe Scott (265-296, 20th season; 81-119, 8th season at AFA)
2022-23 record: 14-18 (5-13 MW, 10th)
Preseason poll: 11th
Grammer's ballot: 11th
Key losses: G Jake Heidbreder, F Carter Murphy
Key newcomers: n/a
Note: In a transfer portal world, only the service academies can't take new players in; they can only lose them (after their sophomore year, players must make a government-binding commitment to serve a certain number of years in the military). AFA lost leading scorer Jake Heidbreder (15.1 ppg) to a transfer to the ACC's Clemson. Sophomore forward Ryan Petraitis and junior guard Ethan Taylor, especially with a move off the point this season, could be very good. Though there are no newcomers, watch for breakout seasons from forwards Chase Beasley and Beau Becker.
Stat to watch: Nine of Air Force's 18 losses last season were by 8 points or fewer, including two in overtime.
Quote: "Our locker room has changed. The last two years, it's been dominated by freshmen and sophomores. That's a different locker room at Air Force than one that's going to be dominated by juniors who are now committed to the school, to the program." — Air Force coach Joe Scott
BOISE STATE BRONCOS
Coach: Leon Rice (268-144, 14th season at BSU and overall)
2022-23 record: 24-10 (13-5 MW, t-2nd)
Preseason poll: 2nd
Grammer's ballot: 3rd
Key losses: PG Marcus Shaver, F Naje Smith, C Lukas Milner
Key newcomers: PG Roddie Anderson III, F Cam Martin, F O'Mar Stanley, G Chris Lockett Jr., F Andrew Meadow
Note: Transfer PG Roddie Anderson III (UC San Diego) was very good as a freshman. G Max Rice and F Tyson Degenhart are all-league caliber players. Degenhart moving back to the "4" spot as transfers F Cam Martin (Kansas) and F O'Mar Stanley (St. John's) take some heat off him in the frontcourt should have Degenhart back in player of the year discussions.
Stat to watch: The Broncos have gone 8-6 (.571) in November the past two seasons with two résumé-diminishing Quad 4 losses and one Quad 3 loss. Outside November the past two season, BSU is 43-12 (.782) with no losses outside of Quad 1 or 2.
Quote: "The Pit is the hardest place to play (in the Mountain West last season). Last year, (Morris) Udeze had a dunk and the place was ready to erupt. You hear about the Pit being a historic venue, that was the Pit you want to come to. That was the one you want to experience." — BSU junior forward Tyson Degenhart
COLORADO STATE RAMS
Coach: Niko Medved (171-151, 11th season; 92-64, 6th season at CSU)
2022-23 record: 15-18 (6-12 MW, t-8th)
Preseason poll: 5th
Grammer's ballot: 4th
Key losses: F John Tonje, G Isaiah Rivera, F James Moors
Key newcomers: F Joel Scott, G Nique Clifford, G Javonte Johnson
Note: PG Isaiah Stevens was voted the league's preseason Player of the of the Year and is one of the best point guards in the country. Former D-II All-American Patrick Cartier is a skilled big and former Lobo wing Javonte Johnson adds plenty of MW experience on the wing and could return to his 2021-22 3-point shooting form (45.5%) in CSU's open offense.
Stat to watch: The Rams ranked 355th out of 363 Division I teams last season in offensive rebound percentage (19.6%).
Quote: "Offensive and defensive glass — that's where we got to improve. ... Maybe even using some more fouls, just not giving up so many layups. I feel like we do a good job of not fouling, but then it gets to a point where you're just giving up a lot of easy twos or uncontested shots." — CSU point guard Isiah Stevens
FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS
Coach: Justin Hutson (80-73, 6th season at FS and overall)
2022-23 record: 11-20 (6-12 MW, t-8th)
Preseason poll: 8th
Grammer's ballot: 7th
Key losses: G Jemarl Baker Jr., F Isaih Moore, G Anthony Holland, G Jordan Campbell
Key newcomers: G Xavier DuSell, G Isaiah Pope, C Enoch Boakye
Note: The addition of Arizona State transfer C Enoch Boakye with the second-half emergence last year of F Eduardo Andre give the Bulldogs high-end frontcourt potential. The Bulldogs also added through the portal a very good outside shooter, not to mention a Mountain West veteran, in G Xavier DuSell (Wyoming) and a big-sized, versatile combo guard in Isaiah Pope (Utah Tech).
Stat to watch: Last season, Fresno State ranked 86th nationally in two-point field goal defense (teams shot 48.3% inside the arc) and 340th in three-point field goal defense (37.4%).
Quote: "I just I think we have to be better on that (defense). We were really good in some areas on that end, but we weren't consistent. Whether it was scheme, talent, consistency, injuries, whatever it was. It doesn't matter. They're all excuses. We have to be a lot more consistent on that end, because we do have some talent to score the ball." — Fresno State coach Justin Hutson
NEVADA WOLF PACK
Coach: Steve Alford (657-349, 33rd season overall; 70-51, 5th season at Nevada)
2022-23 record: 22-11 (12-6 MW, 4th)
Preseason poll: 4th
Grammer's ballot: 5th
Key losses: C Will Baker, F Darrion Williams, G Trey Pettigrew
Key newcomers: F Tylan Pope, C Jazz Gardner, F Jeriah Coleman
Note: You can't lose big men Will Baker and Darrion Williams, last season's MW Freshman of the Year, and not feel it. But Nevada added two 7-footers — 7-1 block machine junior college transfer Jeriah Coleman and 7-0 freshman Jazz Gardner — and 6-6 Tulane transfer Tylan Pope, who can contribute immediately. Though not new, returning injured players KJ Hymes (6-10) and PG Hunter McIntosh could be the keys alongside returning all-league guards Kenan Blackshear and Jarod Lucas.
Quote: "One thing we've taken a look at is getting in better shape because I think as we got towards the end of the season, we weren't the team that we should have been. So this offseason, we've definitely taken emphasis on conditioning. Coach (Alford) has had us doing some old Bobby Knight stuff." — Nevada guard Jarod Lucas
NEW MEXICO LOBOS
Coach: Richard Pitino (194-168, 12th season overall; 35-31, 3rd season at UNM
2022-23 record: 22-12 (8-10 MW, 6th)
Preseason poll: 3rd
Grammer's ballot: 2nd
Key losses: F Morris Udeze, F Josiah Allick, G K.J. Jenkins, G Javonte Johnson
Key newcomers: C Nelly Junior Joseph, F Mustapha Amzil, F Isaac Mushilla, G Jemarl Baker Jr., G Tru Washington, F JT Toppin
Note: By the Nov. 6 opener, starting C Nelly Junior Joseph will have been in the country and practicing fewer than two weeks. Also, starting all-league PG Jaelen House (leg) and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi transfer F Isaac Mushilla (broken hand) each missed pretty much all of October practice.
Stat to watch: UNM ranked 24th out of 363 Division I teams in offensive efficiency last season, but did so in an unorthodox way for modern basketball. UNM scored just 21.2% of its points from three-point range, which ranked 352nd nationally. No other team in the top 50 of offensive efficiency scored less from three.
Quote: "Although we went to the first postseason in nine years and we did a lot of good things last year, that identity (of being a tough, scrappy team) has not been built yet. And it's my job certainly to establish that." — UNM coach Richard Pitino
SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS
Coach: Brian Dutcher (151-47, 7th season at SDSU and overall)
2022-23 record: 32-7 (15-3 MW, 1st)
Preseason poll: 1st
Grammer's ballot: 1st
Key losses: G Matt Bradley, F Nathan Mensah, F Keshad Johnson, G Adam Seiko, G Aguek Arop
Key newcomers: G Reese Waters, F Jay Pal, G BJ Davis
Note: SDSU's Final Four run last season put the program in a whole new light and got the postseason monkey off the Mountain West's back. A repeat performance will be tough with all the team lost, but Gs Lamont Butler and Darrion Trammell are back and USC transfer G Reese Waters, last season's Pac-12 Sixth Man of the Year, give the Aztecs some offense. Seeing how well they replace Nathan Mensah's defense in the post is a huge key.
Stat to watch: The Aztecs have gone 108-23 (.824) over the past four seasons. Not coincidentally, SDSU ranked in the top 25 nationally in defensive efficiency each of those seasons (fourth last season and second two years ago). It's simple. Defense is still the calling card.
Quote: "We have to win the league defensively. We have to be the best team in the league defensively, and if we do that, we'll have a chance to win the league." — SDSU head coach Brian Dutcher
SAN JOSE STATE SPARTANS
Coach: Tim Miles (393-349, 27th season overall; 29-37, third season at SJSU)
2022-23 record: 21-14 (10-8 MW, 5th)
Preseason poll: 7th
Grammer's ballot: 10th
Key losses: G Omari Moore, F Sage Tolbert, C Ibrahima Diallo
Key newcomers: C Adrame Diongue, F DJ Seixas, F William Humer, G Ricky Mitchell Jr.
Note: There is no replacing Mountain West Player of the Year Omari Moore and the loss of the defensive presence and shot blocking provided by C Ibrahima Diallo might be getting lost in the talk of replacing Moore. PG Alvaro Cardenas is a very good leader, though, and G Myron "MJ" Amey is a high-end scorer at times.
Stat to watch: San Jose State easily led the Mountain West with a plus-7.66 rebounding margin last season (second place San Diego State was at plus-4.13). The Spartans also ranked sixth nationally in that stat. Eight of the top 10 nationally in that stat were top six seeds in the NCAA Tournament.
Quote: "Holding teams under a point per possession (is our focus). It's defense. I know Dutch (coach Brian Dutcher) does it every year or every game at San Diego State. Well, we don't. But when we do, we're good." — SJSU head coach Tim Miles
UNLV RUNNIN' REBELS
Coach: Kevin Kruger (37-27, third season at UNLV and overall)
2022-23 record: 19-13 (7-11 MW, 7th)
Preseason poll: 6th
Grammer's ballot: 6th
Key losses: G Elijah Harkless, G Keshon Gilbert, G Jordan McCabe, F David Muoka
Key newcomers: PG Dedan Thomas Jr., F Jalen Hill, F Kalib Boone, F Keylan Boone
Note: PG Dedan Thomas Jr. is a five-star recruit from Las Vegas who reclassified from the Class of 2024 to the Class of 2023 and, somewhat surprisingly, joined the Rebels over the summer, which is the only reason a five-star recruit coming to the league has seemingly flown under the radar. If the 6-1 would-be high school senior can get up to speed, he could have a huge impact.
Stat to watch: UNLV's 17.56 forced turnovers per game led the Mountain West and was sixth best nationally. Their 12.31 turnovers committed per game was also highest in the Mountain West and ranked 180th nationally.
Quote: "We just kind of leveled the playing field too much (last season) because of turnovers. We kind of took our guard biggest strength, which was taking it away from people, and we turned it was also our biggest weakness because we gave it right back." — UNLV coach Kevin Kruger
UTAH STATE AGGIES
Coach: Danny Sprinkle (81-43, 5th season, first at Utah State)
2022-23 record: 26-9 (13-5 MW, t-2nd)
Preseason poll: 9th
Grammer's ballot: 9th
Key losses: Coach Ryan Odom, PG Steven Ashworth, F Taylor Funk, G Max Shugla, G Sean Bairstow
Key newcomers: G Darius Brown II, F Great Osobor, G Ian Martinez, G Josh Uduje, F Nigel Burris, F Max Agbonkpolo
Note: Former Montana State coach Danny Sprinkle replaces the departed Ryan Odom, who left for the VCU job after two seasons in Logan. Sprinkle replaces the entire roster. Former UNM assistants Eric Brown and Andy Hill are on Sprinkle's staff.
Stat to watch: While UNM ranked sixth in the country last season in free throw attempts per game (23.5), Sprinkle's Montana State Bobcats were ninth (23.3). His Montana State teams ranked fourth, 4th and 14th in the country in the past three seasons in free throw rate.
Quote: "I was with Coach Sprinkle last year (at Montana State), so we're bringing a lot of those same principles — just hard, gritty defensive team. A lot of effort, a lot a lot of plays like that. That's what you can expect from us." — Utah State guard Darius Brown II
WYOMING COWBOYS
Coach: Jeff Linder (128-92, 8th season overall; 48-42, 4th season at Wyoming)
2022-23 record: 9-22 (4-14 MW, 11th)
Preseason poll: 10th
Grammer's ballot: 8th
Key losses: G Hunter Maldonado, F Graham Ike, G Ethan Anderson, G Noah Reynolds, F Jeremiah Oden, G Xavier DuSell
Key newcomers: G Sam Griffin, G Akuel Kot, F Mason Walters, F Oleg Kojenets; G Kobe Newton
Note: Transfer Mason Walters, the NAIA Player of the Year, injured his thumb in October and may miss up to 10 weeks. Akuel Kot was a Division II All-American and Sam Griffin led Tulsa in scoring (15.2 ppg) before transferring to Laramie.
Stat to watch: Wyoming had a 51.6 effective field goal percentage last season, the worst for a Linder-coached team since his first year after taking over Northern Colorado in 2016-17.
Quote: "There's guys either their ball goes in, or their ball doesn't go in. There's a lot of Division I players, their ball doesn't go in the basket. And I know with Mason Walters and Akuel Kot, they're professional scorers, and I don't care what level it's at. With those two and then you had Sam Griffin, who was Tulsa's leading scorer, I really got a team that I'm probably a lot more comfortable coaching in terms of the style." — Wyoming coach Jeff Lindor
You can reach Geoff at ggrammer@abqjournal.com or follow him on Twitter (X) @GeoffGrammer.
