Analysis: Do the Nuggets have a home-court advantage?
DENVER (KDVR) — The Denver Nuggets are still fighting for a chance to win back-to-back NBA championships, having won their last two games against the Timberwolves on the road — chasing two losses on their home court at Ball Arena.
Now with the matchup locked in a 2-2 struggle, many fans are looking ahead to see if the Nuggets’ return home to Denver spells another loss, or if the team’s statistics support a possible home-court win.
Murray swishes a half-court heave at the halftime buzzer for the Nuggets in Game 4 vs. Timberwolves
This season, the Nuggets won 57 of 82 regular season games for a winning rate of 69.5%.
Not too bad — especially after the Mother’s Day win in Minneapolis to tie the playoffs, and star player Nikola Jokic’s MVP award on Friday.
Half of those regular season games, 41 total, were played at home with the Nuggets winning 33 bouts. That’s a win percentage of just under 80.5%.
On the road, things are a little less cut-and-dry. With 41 away games, the team only won 24. That’s a win percentage of about 58.5%.
Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray (27) jogs down the court after making a shot during the first half of Game 4 of an NBA basketball second-round playoff series against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Sunday, May 12, 2024, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr) Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokic (15) looks to shoot over Minnesota Timberwolves center Naz Reid (11) during the first half of Game 3 of an NBA basketball second-round playoff series, Friday, May 10, 2024, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Abbie Parr) Denver Nuggets guard Reggie Jackson, center, drives to the basket between Minnesota Timberwolves forward Kyle Anderson, left, and guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker, right, in the first half of Game 2 of an NBA basketball second-round playoff series Monday, May 6, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) Los Angeles Lakers forward LeBron James, left, fields a pass as Denver Nuggets guard Jamal Murray, right, tries to make a steal in the first half of Game 5 of an NBA basketball first-round playoff series Monday, April 29, 2024, in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
Compared to the Nuggets, the Timberwolves tell a different story — Minnesota boasts a home-game win rate of about 73%, about 7% lower than the Nuggets, and an away-game win rate of about 63.4%, about 5% higher than Denver.
The Nuggets only have to win two more games to beat out the Timberwolves in the seven-game playoff series. If that happens, the team will face either the Oklahoma Thunder, who boast the same overall win percentage as the Nuggets (69.5%), or the Dallas Mavericks, who have a win percentage of 61% this season.
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This also wouldn’t be the first time the Nuggets could make a comeback during the playoffs — in the 2023 NBA conference finals, the team tied 2-2 against the Phoenix Suns. The Nuggets ultimately advanced in six games, and defeated the Los Angeles Lakers in four games, the first sweep of an opponent in franchise history.
Let’s hope something similar can happen during this playoff season.
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