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Alabama football vs. Texas A&M: Our score prediction, scouting report

nick kelly, the tuscaloosa news
·4 min read
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Texas A&M and Jimbo Fisher might have gotten the best of Alabama football and Nick Saban last year, but doing so two years in a row won't be easy.

Teams don't really beat Alabama football in back-to-back seasons. Saban has only lost 25 games over his previous 15 seasons. Of those 23 losses prior to 2021, Alabama then had a rematch the next season with 15 of those teams, and the Crimson Tide won 13 of them. That's only two losses in back-to-back seasons over Saban's entire tenure in Tuscaloosa.

Texas A&M isn't exactly in a prime spot to be the third team to accomplish that feat. Fisher's squad has lost two games already this season, one to Appalachian State and another to Mississippi State this past Saturday.

Then again, that didn't matter in 2021. Texas A&M still beat Alabama, even after losing the two games before the Crimson Tide arrived in College Station, Texas.

If Bryce Young doesn't play, that certainly helps the Aggies' chances. But even his absence might not be enough to help bridge the gap between the two programs.

No. 1 Alabama (5-0, 2-0 SEC) will face Texas A&M (3-2, 1-1) on Saturday (7 p.m., CBS) at Bryant-Denny Stadium.

Here's our scouting report and score prediction for the game:

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Aggies offense one of worst in the conference

By several measures, this Texas A&M offense isn't doing well.

The Aggies average 334.4 yards per game, last in the conference. Through the air, they rank ahead of only Vanderbilt with 205.4 yards per game. Rushing, Texas A&M is 12th (129 yards per game).

Overall, the Aggies are scoring 21.8 points per game, which ranks No. 108 in the country and is last in the SEC.

Not helping Texas A&M is the fact that senior receiver Ainias Smith is out for the season. The leading receiver for the Aggies caught 15 passes for 291 yards for two touchdowns before his season ended with an injury.

His absence will be felt against Alabama, in particular. Smith caught six passes for 85 yards and two touchdowns a year ago against the Crimson Tide.

Running back Devon Achane will have to be a focus, though. He's third in the SEC with 466 yards. He's also averaging 5.75 yards per carry and has rushed for three touchdowns.

"This guy is a very, very talented guy," Saban said.

Who's playing quarterback?

Texas A&M also has uncertainty at this position heading into the game because of injuries. Starter Max Johnson, who replaced a benched Haynes King, hurt his hand in the loss to Mississippi State. King stepped back in and went 6-for-13 for 49 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.

Quarterback play hasn't been a strong point for the Aggies this season, and that situation has only been made worse by Johnson suffering an injury.

Another option could be freshman Connor Weigman, a five-star quarterback in the 2022 class.

Johnson is considered day-to-day, Fisher said Monday.

Texas A&M defense better against the pass

The Aggies' defense sits in a more favorable spot nationally than the offense.

Texas A&M is allowing 16.6 points per game, ranked No. 22 in the country. The pass defense is No. 30 (188.4 yards per game) but the run defense sits at No. 97 (170.2 yards per game).

"Their secondary is good," Saban said. "They're big, they're physical, they're very athletic. At corner, they're long. They've got good size, tackle well."

The Aggies' defense matches up well with Alabama, which has the No. 7 rushing offense in the country (251.4 yards per game). The running game will need to be clicking if Young can't play.

Score prediction

Alabama 34, Texas A&M 13: Texas A&M might have been able to take advantage of Alabama on the road last year, but the Crimson Tide isn't going to be as vulnerable at home. No matter who starts at quarterback for Alabama, Texas A&M doesn't have enough offensive firepower to do much of anything against the Crimson Tide defense.

This article originally appeared on The Tuscaloosa News: Alabama football vs. Texas A&M: Our score prediction, scouting report