Alabama College Football Playoff path: Win vs. Georgia in SEC championship is only first step
Nearly three full months after a Week 2 home loss to Texas set off a panic about the future of coach Nick Saban’s program — both for the rest of the 2023 season and beyond — the Alabama football team enters December in a familiar position.
The Crimson Tide heads into its SEC championship game matchup Saturday with Georgia as one of a select handful of teams still in contention for a College Football Playoff berth.
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Alabama has reached this point point by overcoming what seemed like considerable odds after falling to the Longhorns 34-24 on Sept. 9 at Bryant-Denny Stadium. With a loss in just its second game, the Tide needed to finish the regular season undefeated to remain in the playoff conversation. It was ultimately able to do just that, winning its final 10 games, three of which came against teams currently ranked in the CFP top 25.
If it beats the No. 1 Bulldogs, it will not only claim its seventh conference championship in the past 10 years, but also will put itself in contention to make the playoff for the eighth time in the event’s 10-year history. Even so, a 12-1, SEC champion Alabama is likely to still need help to make the playoff.
How does Alabama secure what previously seemed like an improbable playoff berth? Here’s what needs to happen for the Tide to make the College Football Playoff:
How can Alabama make the playoff?
Beat Georgia in the SEC championship
The first and most necessary step in the process may appear simple on paper, but it will be quite difficult to achieve on the field.
Georgia, the two-time defending national champion, is a 5.5-point favorite for the matchup according to odds from BetMGM, and has yet to lose a game this season. That has extended the Bulldogs' win streak to 29 games across three seasons. Only two of their wins this season have been decided by one possession.
There is some precedent for Alabama toppling a menacing Georgia team in Atlanta: In 2021, a Tide team with one loss — a 41-38 setback against Texas A&M — defeated an undefeated Bulldogs squad in the SEC championship game 41-24. It earned Alabama a No. 1 seed to the playoff, where it lost in a rematch against Georgia in the national championship game.
A loss Saturday would eliminate whatever chance the Tide has of making the playoff. No team with more than a single loss has ever made the playoff field.
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What happens if Alabama beats Georgia?
An Alabama win over Georgia would be massive for the Crimson Tide's chances of making the playoff. But, by itself, it wouldn't guarantee the Crimson Tide a CFP berth. Saban and Co. would still need to clear Texas, Florida State and one of Washington or Oregon to make the postseason.
In order for Alabama to make the CFP, it would need help in the Big 12 and ACC championship games. Here's the breakdown:
Texas loses to Oklahoma State
At No. 8 in the most recent playoff selection committee rankings (as well as the Coaches Poll), Alabama will need to leapfrog several teams in order to make it into the coveted top four.
One obstacle among that group looms especially large.
While Alabama’s resume can be compared to and breathlessly debated with other one-loss teams such as Oregon and Ohio State, No. 7 Texas possess an all-powerful trump card over the Tide by virtue of its road win back in September. Virtually any discussion about the playoff candidacies of Texas and Alabama would lead back to that head-to-head matchup.
If the Longhorns lose against No. 19 Oklahoma State in Saturday’s Big 12 championship game at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, it will hand them a second defeat this season and remove them from the playoff conversation.
Texas is a 14.5-point favorite in the matchup, according to odds from BetMGM.
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Florida State loses to Louisville
The Seminoles are undefeated, but with star quarterback Jordan Travis out for the rest of the season with an injury, they fell from No. 4 to No. 5 in the fourth set of playoff rankings before rising back to No. 4 this week after Ohio State’s loss to Michigan.
Even with Travis’ injury, the Seminoles almost certainly make the field if they win the ACC championship. No undefeated Power Five champion has ever been excluded from the playoff. But a loss to Louisville in Saturday’s ACC championship game in Charlotte, North Carolina, would likely wipe out whatever remaining hopes they have.
According to BetMGM odds, Florida State is a 2.5-point favorite against No. 14 Louisville, which finished the regular season 10-2 and owns wins over two top-25 teams (No. 17 Notre Dame and No. 19 N.C. State). The Cardinals' Rivalry Week loss to Kentucky also precludes them from making the CFP over FSU, since the defeat by the Wildcats was their second of the season.
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Michigan loses to Iowa
This result may only be so relevant to the Tide: It seems plausible that the Wolverines, like Georgia, could suffer a conference championship game loss and still make the playoff field (just as TCU did in 2022 and Georgia did in 2021).
It’s also, by far, the most unlikely outcome from conference championship weekend. The point spread for the game — Michigan is a 23.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM — is nearly six points higher than Iowa’s points-per-game average this season (18).
Hope for the best from the playoff selection committee
In this best-case scenario, Alabama would be one of at least six Power Five teams with fewer than two losses. The Pac-12 championship game doesn't figure into this, as the winner of the matchup will either be No. 3, 13-0 Washington or No. 5, 12-1 Oregon. Either will be well-positioned to make the playoff regardless of what else unfolds around it.
Based on the most recent playoff rankings, the Tide would certainly pass Texas and Florida State, the latter of which plays in a weaker conference and has a starting quarterback sidelined for the season. It would likely do the same to No. 6 Ohio State, which is idle after failing to beat Michigan and make the Big Ten championship.
It would own a crucial head-to-head result over Georgia, though even with a win, it’s possible based on these other results that both teams could make the playoff — just as they did in 2021.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: How can Alabama make the playoff? Beat Georgia, root against Texas, FSU
