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AFC playoff picture: Where the Patriots will stand entering Week 16

danny jaillet
·4 min read
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The New England Patriots have a 98% chance of making the 2021 playoffs, per FiveThirtyEight.com. While they look to jockey for positioning, their opponents are going to be looking knock them further down the standings. The last three games will be crucial for the Patriots, and they will be no walk in the park.

The analytics-makers like the Patriots chances of making an impact in the postseason. Since last week’s edition of this, the New England Patriots have a 66% chance to win the division. FiveThirtyEight also gave the Patriots a 10% chance of winning the Super Bowl, something that would be a remarkable feat considering New England started 2-4 with a rookie QB.

Things have shifted a little bit since last weekend terms of the playoff picture, but the Patriots are still in the thick of things. Here’s what the playoff picture looks like heading into Week 16.

AFC Standings

  1. Kansas City Chiefs (10-4)

  2. New England Patriots (9-5)

  3. Tennessee Titans (9-5)

  4. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

  5. Indianapolis Colts (8-6)

  6. Los Angeles Chargers (8-6)

  7. Buffalo Bills (8-6)

In the hunt: Baltimore Ravens (8-6 )Pittsburgh Steelers (7-6-1) Las Vegas Raiders (7-7), Miami Dolphins (7-7)

Our take: After a slow start to the season, the Kansas City Chiefs are red-hot. They’ve won their last seven games. As of right now, they are the top dog in a crowded AFC playoff race. The Patriots have a game in hand with a head-to-head win over the Titans, so any potential tiebreaker would favor the Patriots.

Here are the AFC's playoff matchups if the season ended today

Bye: Chiefs

(2) Patriots vs. (7) Bills

(3) Titans vs. (6) Chargers

(4) Bengals vs. (5) Colts

Our take: The Patriots would face the Bills for their playoff matchup. However, that isn’t the only intriguing matchup in play. The Titans would face an up-and-down Chargers team dealing with injuries. Although the Chargers are dealing with injuries of their own, the Titans have been dealing without Derrick Henry for the entire season.

On the flip side, the Cincinnati Bengals would take on a surging Indianapolis Colts team. Patriots fans saw first-hand how much of an impact Jonathan Taylor can make. Taylor is a game-changer and can control the pace of the game. Cincinnati has playmakers in their own right. Wide receiver Ja’Matt Chase and quarterback Joe Burrow have emerged as one of the brightest young tandems in the league. Aside from the Patriots game, that would be an intriguing matchup.

AFC East Standings

  1. Patriots (9-5)

  2. Bills (8-6)

  3. Miami Dolphins (7-7)

  4. New York Jets (3-11)

Our take: The Patriots’ upcoming game against the Buffalo Bills has massive implications. A win would put the Patriots at 10-5, and make things more of an uphill battle for the Buffalo Bills, who finish the season with the Falcons and Jets. This would put them in a good position to make the playoffs, as those two teams have been struggling.

The Dolphins admittedly need a little bit of help to get into the playoffs. They would need Buffalo to struggle mightily at the end of the season. They would also need to win against the Jets, at the Saints, and at the Titans before closing out with the Patriots. It is possible that Miami could make the playoffs, but the chances of that happening are extremely slim.

The Patriots will play against the Bills, against the Jaguars, and then travel on the road to Miami. This isn’t the easiest schedule for New England. Among the schedule storylines include facing a desperate Buffalo team looking to make the playoffs. In addition, they will have to play Miami on the road. Historically, playing Miami on the road has been a difficult task for New England. With Miami playing better as of late, this could be a more difficult game than one may expect.

Analysis on the Patriots’ playoff picture

Given how the Patriots started the year, and how rookie quarterback Mac Jones has been able to make strides, the Patriots are in a very good position. From 2-4 to 9-5, the turnaround has been nothing short of remarkable.

However, the job is not done. Buffalo is always a tough matchup. The Jacksonville Jaguars will be looking to play the role of spoilers, and the Miami Dolphins will look to inch their way into playoff conversation. This is not an easy part of the schedule. All of the remaining teams the Patriots play are either looking to get into the playoffs or playing to beat a resurgent Patriots team. The Patriots are in the playoffs, now it’s just a matter of seeding. The race to get to that number one seed is tight, It will undoubtedly be a fight to the finish. Kansas City is playing their best football when it matters most will be difficult to surpass them.

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