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Advanced Stats: Aside from being toxic, Packers path to win over Cowboys is murky

matt owen
·7 min read
11

The Dallas Cowboys will travel to Lambeau Field to play the Green Bay Packers in a game that features two teams with opposite trajectories. The 6-2 Cowboys are freshly rested from a bye week as seen from their relatively clean injury report that saw just one player, Anthony Barr, ruled out.  Running back Ezekiel Elliott will test his knee pregame, while safety Malik Hooker and defensive end Sam Williams return to action.

The 3-6 Packers have not been as fortunate, the injury bug has taken its toll on the team and they three more tests before they reach their bye week.  They have 16 players on the injury report, five who were ruled out includingLB Rashan Gary and CB Eric Stokes who will miss the rest of the 2022 season.

Each week we open up the Advanced Stat Notebook to analyze how each team ranks in EPA, DVOA, ANY/A and Toxic Differential. These four key metrics have a high correlation to win probability.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) - Football Outsiders

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DVOA is a metric which measures the success of each play as compared to league average using percentage points above or below average. The metric measures down, distance, field location, quarter and quality of opponent.

With DVOA, teams are looking for a higher percentage offensively and a lower percentage defensively.  On offense and special teams, the objective is to perform above league average while defenses are looking to force their opponents to perform below league average.

Information via Football Outsiders.

DVOA Offense

  • The Cowboys have an edge in passing DVOA with a difference of 5.8% which is nearly double the DVOA of the Packers’ passing attack.

  • The advantage in rushing DVOA also goes to the Cowboys with a 15.5% DVOA, the third best in the NFL. The Packers are 13th overall at 3.2%.

  • As you may have guessed, the overall offensive DVOA nod goes to the Cowboys who rank 10th with a DVOA of 6.8% compared to the Packers 2.8%.

Offensive Advantage: Cowboys

DVOA Defense

While looking for positive DVOA’s on offense, a negative DVOA is better on defense.

  • Both teams rank in the top 10 in passing DVOA defensively but the Cowboys DVOA of -27.2% against ranks six spots higher and 23.5% better than the Packers.

  • The edge in rushing DVOA against favors the Cowboys heavily, ranking ninth overall with a -7.9% rushing DVOA allowed.  The Packers are 31st with a DVOA of 8.2%. That is an area that the Cowboys will likely attempt to capitalize on offensively.

  • The Cowboys lead the league in overall defensive DVOA at -18.5%. The Packers come in at No. 18 with a DVOA of 2.4%.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

Overall Advantage: Cowboys

Expected Points Added and Success Rate

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EPA measures the impact a play has on the likelihood of scoring. With EPA, yardage, field position, and down and distance all weigh in on what the expected net points would be for the situation. As an example, a first and goal at the one-yard line would represent a higher EP-Expected Points than a third and 10 on your own 20 yard line.

EPA is the difference between the Expected Points (EP) at the beginning of the play compared to the end of the play. It measures the plays impact on the score of the game.

Success rate is a measure of how often teams get 40% of the needed yards on 1st down, 60% on 2nd down and 100% on third down or fourth down.

EPA figures gathered by rbsdm.

EPA: Offense

  • Neither offense has been able to produce the high-powered attack that we have been accustomed to seeing, however, the Cowboys have the advanage in EPA per play, adding .004 points over expectation per play. The Packers are underperforming with a defecit of .036 points under the expected total per snap.

  • The Cowboys have the edge in passing EPA per dropback, gaining .011 points per play, 19th overall. The Packers rank 24th, generating .032 points less than expected per passing play.

  • The advantage in rushing EPA favors the Cowboys as well, ranking eighth overall with a -.003 EPA per carry. The Packers rank nine spots below with a -.041 EPA per run.

  • While the Cowboys lead in EPA, the Packers hold the edge in success rate, finishing six spots ahead of Dallas with a success rate of 46.3%.

Offensive Advantage: Cowboys

EPA: Defense

  • The Cowboys defense continues to be one of the best units in football, holding opposing offenses to .095 less points than expected per play, the third best in the NFL. The Packers rank 17th, allowing offenses to score .017 points more than expected.

  • Passing defensive EPA favors the Cowboys with a -.107 EPA per dropback, fourth best overall. The Packers rank 11th with a .021 EPA per dropback.

  • The edge in rushing EPA per carry goes to the Cowboys as well, holding opponents to .077 points less than expected per carry, 10th best in the league. The Packers rank 26th overall.

  • Finishing off a clean sweep for the Cowboys defense, they rank eighth in success rate allowed at 41.6%, 15 spots higher than the Packers who allow a successful play on 45.1% of their snaps.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

Overall Advantage: Cowboys ( Winners of 7 of 8 EPA categories)

Toxic Differential:Toxicity

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Toxic differential (also referred to as Toxicity) adds the number of explosive plays an offense generates and subtracts the number of explosive plays a defense allows, then adds the turnover margin.

Under Brian Billick’s formula, explosive plays are defined as passing plays over 20 yards and rushing plays over 10 yards.

Toxic Differential: Offense

  • While DVOA and EPA favored the Cowboys offense, the Packers have done a better job of generating explosive plays, averaging 7 per game compared to the Cowboys 5.4 per game.

  • The Packers have 12 more passing plays of 20 or more yards than the Cowboys and have eight more explosive runs.

  • The Cowboys have a huge advantage in giveaways, showing a big emphasis on protecting the football. The Packers have turned the ball over at a much higher rate than what we typically see from an Aaron Rodgers led offense.

Cowboys: 19 explosive passes+ 24 explosive runs=  43 explosive plays.
43 explosive plays – 7 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 36.

Packers: 31 explosive passes+ 32 explosive runs= 63 explosive plays.
63 explosive plays – 13 turnovers= Offensive Toxicity score of 50.

Offensive Advantage: Packers

Toxic Differential: Defense

  • The Cowboys have allowed 10 less explosive passing plays than the Packers this season, allowing just 1.6 receptions of 20 or more yards per game.

  • The Packers have allowed four fewer explosive runs of 10 or more yards than the Cowboys, allowing 3.5 explosive runs per game.

  • The Cowboys have generated 13 takeaways this season, five more than the Packers. The Cowboys average 1.63 takeaways per game compared to .89 takeaways per game for the Packers.

Cowboys: 13 explosive passes+ 36 explosive runs= 49 explosive plays.
49 explosive plays – 13 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 36.

Packers: 23 explosive passes+ 32 explosive runs= 55 explosive plays.
55 explosive plays – 8 takeaways= Defensive Toxicity score of 47.

Defensive Advantage: Cowboys

Overall Toxicity is determined by subtracting the defensive total from the offensive total.

Cowboys Toxicity: Offense 36 – Defense 36 = Overall Toxicity 0
Packers Toxicity: Offense 50 – Defense 47=  Overall Toxicity +3

Overall Advantage: Packers

ANY/A

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Adjusted Net Yards Per Pass Attempt, or ANY/A, is a formula which incorporates passing yardage, touchdowns, sacks and interceptions into a per-throw average. ANY/A has a direct correlation to scoring points and as such ranks third in win predictability

  • ANY/A for favors the Cowboys by a razor tight margin of just .008 yards.

  • ANY/A against favors the Cowboys heavily with a difference of 1.7 yards per play between the two defenses.

  • The overall advantage in ANY/A differential goes to the Cowboys with a +1.56 margin compared to the Packers -.22.

Advantage: Cowboys

Overall Recap

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Toxicity: Packers (Cowboys lead 4 out of 8 with one tie but Packers lead overall differential)

DVOA: Cowboys (6 out of 6)

EPA: Cowboys (7 out of 8)

ANY/A: Cowboys (3 out of 3)

Overall: Cowboys (lead 20 of 25 metrics)

Story originally appeared on Cowboys Wire