It’s actually not that hard to see a path to Mets contention
Last February, on the day that Baseball Prospectus released its annual PECOTA projections for 2023, Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander arrived together at spring training in Port St. Lucie. The Mets, pegged for 97 wins, were awash in buzz and expectation.
This year’s PECOTA came on the day that the Mets announced their signing of Jake Diekman and were linked in reports to Gio Urshela. With no disrespect intended to either of these fine players, the team's star power is not what it was one year ago.
Having said that, a path is becoming clearer to how David Stearns and his newly-assembled front office group might have actually built a significantly better team than the one that hobbled to the finish with 75 wins last year.
Are we viewing this through the rose-colored glasses that fit so comfortably the week before pitchers and catchers report? Quite possibly -- but we’ll say this: internally, the Mets themselves are cautiously optimistic about exceeding expectations.
This year, PECOTA has the Mets at 83.6 wins, capturing the third wild card. It’s not hard to see how they exceed that total. The path to that can be summarized in two words: Run prevention.
Simply put, one of the best ways for a so-so roster to sneak into playoff contention is by catching the ball and deploying a nasty bullpen. An 84-win team that wins more than its share of one-run games due to those strengths becomes an 88-win team pretty easily. And as a bonus, they look good doing it; a defensive-minded team is an aesthetically pleasing team.
A strong proponent of up-the-middle defense, Stearns instantly improved that aspect of the Mets by signing the elite Harrison Bader, and moving Brandon Nimmo to left field (Bader has played more than 130 games just once in his seven-year career and not since 2018, meaning that it’s fair to expect a decent amount of Nimmo in center).
He already has Francisco Lindor’s artistry at shortstop, and Jeff McNeil’s above average glove at second base. At catcher, Francisco Alvarez’s footwork remains a work-in-progress, which can impact blocking and throwing. But he has a plus arm, excellent pitch-framing metrics and the respect of his pitching staff.
Stearns also added infielder Joey Wendle, a strong defender. Free agent Urshela, another slick fielder is also a possibility, though nothing is close or particularly hot on that front.
As for the bullpen, Stearns has focused on pitchers available at bargain prices because of obvious warts, like a consistent ability to throw strikes. But most of the pen additions have a high ceiling, a history of success or one elite pitch or feature (like Shintaro Fujinami’s 100-plus mile per hour velocity, which he has historically struggled to command).
The bullpen might well crash and burn like last year’s, which also looked good on paper in February. But with Edwin Diaz returning, former All-Star Jorge Lopez on board, and higher-ceiling plays like Fujinami and Diekman, it could also break well for Stearns.
If you’re locking down the late innings and catching the ball, stars like Pete Alonso and Lindor come in handy. And, hey, former batting champ McNeil is due for a bounceback, Starling Marte looked healthy in winter ball action in the Dominican Republic …
Okay, that’s enough. This is turning into pure, uncut spring training optimism. We’ll leaven it by reminding ourselves about the suspect rotation and reliance on the unproven Brett Baty and Mark Vientos for significant at-bats, and the holes that remain in Alvarez’s offensive game. All are significant concerns.
But if you’re wondering why the Mets themselves are quietly confident about being better than most people think -- even the relatively optimistic PECOTA -- this is the answer: They think they’re going to prevent runs, look good doing it, and hit just enough.
Some years, that can get you well into October.
