The Action Network: Best race-day bets for Watkins Glen
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Sunday’s NASCAR Go Bowling at The Glen (3 p.m. ET, USA) is the set-up race for next weekend’s regular-season finale at Daytona.
But that doesn’t mean today’s race is unimportant.
First off, there are potential new winners in play with Michael McDowell and Chris Buescher both qualifying inside the top seven.
If there’s no new winner, a points battle could decide the final playoff spot between Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex, Jr.
With so much to keep an eye on, there’s already a lot to follow. Bettors will have even more to monitor as my model is showing plenty of value out there.
Let’s dive into my four best bets for Sunday’s Go Bowling at The Glen, starting with a trio of manufacturer bets.
RELATED: Updated race-day odds | Breaking down the driver matchups
NASCAR Picks for Watkins Glen
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Chris Buescher Top Ford (+700)
I won’t dive into this one too much since PJ Walsh already wrote this up midweek. But there’s still value here at 7-1. My model gives Buescher a 17.2% chance of finishing as the top Ford, up from 12.5% implied odds at this price at DraftKings.
The Bet: Chris Buescher Top Ford +700 | Bet to: +550
William Byron Top Chevy (+1400)
DraftKings is once again blessing us with a generous line. Byron was the third-fastest Chevrolet in qualifying. More importantly, he was second fastest over five consecutive laps in practice.
Like Buescher, Byron also ran the tire test here in May. Should his Hendrick Motorsports teammates slip up, Byron should be there to pounce.
My model gives him an 8.7% chance to finish as the top Chevy. That beats the 6.7% implied odds by two full percentage points.
The Bet: William Byron Top Chevy +1400 | Bet to: +1200
Christopher Bell Top Toyota (+550)
Bell has been the best Toyota driver this year at road courses, so it’s a bit mind-boggling to see such a long price on him.
Yes, I know he blew an engine in practice, which caused him to miss qualifying and start 38th.
But this is a long race, and strategy and pit stops, as well as speed, will all come into play.
I’m happy to take the fastest Toyota at road courses this year at +550 at DraftKings.
Bell finishes as the top Toyota 25.2% of the time per my model, so even if it’s too high, there’s a ton of wiggle room down to the 15.4% implied odds.
The Bet: Christopher Bell Top Toyota +550 | Bet to: +450
Justin Haley Top 10 (+1000)
To end on a different type of bet, let’s take Haley to finish inside the top 10 at 10-1 odds on FanDuel.
Haley practiced 12th and starts 13th, so his speed is right on the cusp of the top 10 already.
Haley has a road-course win in the Truck Series and several podium finishes at road courses in the Xfinity Series.
His teammate, AJ Allmendinger, can claim Watkins Glen to be one of his best tracks. Allmendinger will be making his 11th Cup Series start at the Glen, bringing a wealth of knowledge on how to set up a car to go fast here.
My model gives Haley an 18.7% chance of finishing in the top 10 compared to 9.1% implied odds.
If Watkins Glen is even half as chaotic as the Indy road course — where I hit both Todd Gilliland (+3000) and Harrison Burton (+3400) to finish in the top 10 — then we could see another driver with double-digit odds to finish in the top 10 actually do so.
The Bet: Justin Haley Top 10 +1000 | Bet to: +800
