Aaron Rodgers returns to Green Bay: Where to draft the Packers in 2022
Sports media execs desperate for content while baseball is on pause won’t be able to lean on Aaron Rodgers to fill the void. (Well, at least not when it comes to his contract status.)
The 2021 MVP signed a four-year deal for $200M on Tuesday morning in his return to the Packers. The 38-year-old is now the highest-paid athlete in NFL history, securing a bag that includes $153M guaranteed.
The next domino to fall should be attached to Davante Adams, who is expected to stay in Green Bay under the franchise tag. With Aaron Jones restructuring his contract late last month, the team’s big three (and one of fantasy’s most dominant triumvirates) remains intact for another last dance.
Fantasy fallout of Aaron Rodgers returning to Green Bay
Rodgers closed out his 17th pro campaign as fantasy’s QB6, averaging 21 fantasy points per game and earning a true passer rating 111.5 (QB1). He remains one of the most elite players at the position and figures to be drafted inside the top-seven QBs in 2022, somewhere around/between Joe Burrow and/or Dak Prescott.
Adams' TDs regressed from a career 18 in 2020 to 11 in 2021 (he missed Week 8 and Rodgers was sidelined in Week 9). Still, the 29-year-old recorded a franchise-record 1,553 receiving yards on 123 receptions and closed out the year as fantasy’s WR3. He remains a top-four fantasy selection and will likely come off the board in the last half/third of the first round (after Cooper Kupp, but before Joe Mixon).
It’s no surprise Green Bay wanted to keep their dynamic duo together.
What was less than clear, however, is the team’s backfield.
Which Packer running back is the better fantasy bet in 2022?
A.J. Dillon made figurative and literal strides in his second year, averaging 5.0 yards per touch (RB22) and a surprising 9.2 YPR (RB11). The receiving stat is particularly noteworthy given Dillon’s previous lack of pass-catching exposure. When Jones was sidelined in Week 8, Dillon converted a season-high six targets for a career six grabs and 44 yards. From Weeks 10 through 17, the Boston College product posted four games over 80 total yards and 6 TDs.
Aaron Jones, who had been a top-five producer in 2019 and 2020, finished 2021 outside of the top-10 fantasy RBs. While Jones’ efficiency was certainly affected by lower-body issues, the biggest hit to his overall numbers was due to volume.
For the first time since 2019, the 27-year-old failed to clear 200 carries … despite the fact he was on the field for more games in 2021 (15) than 2020 (14).
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Over the back half of the year it became clear that Green Bay wanted to use Dillon on early downs and near the goal line in an effort to keep Jones (who managed just one rushing score from Weeks 10 through 17) fresh for the stretch run and postseason. The vet will continue to lead on passing downs but fantasy managers should expect Jones’ all-around usage to, at the very least, plateau in 2022.
Moving forward, I’d anticipate a 60/40 split. Jones is still the 1A, but Dillon figures to see an uptick in goal-line equity regardless. And, as we saw last year, if the vet is sidelined, Dillon has the hands to put up numbers in PPR.
Assuming Dillon’s ADP stays in the RB25-ish range, I’d attack that value and upside. Jones, for his part, remains a top-15 option and figures to go off the board in the fourth round of 12-team exercises. If the market overcorrects, however, it would be hard to pass on Jones were he to fall to the fifth.
It’s only March, fam. And while we have answers … there are still plenty of questions to ponder. Stay tuned.
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