9 takeaways from the Patriots and Bill Belichick’s uncharacteristically agressive spending spree
The New England Patriots had a big day. Heck, they’ve had a huge week. Bill Belichick convinced quarterback Cam Newton to return on an incentive-laden deal before re-signing Justin Bethel. Belichick also traded for offensive tackle Trent Brown before trading away offensive tackle Marcus Cannon.
And we’re not even caught up to Belichick’s big Monday when he agreed to terms on deals with a group of stars: tight end Jonnu Smith, edge Matthew Judon, defensive tackle Davon Godchaux and cornerback Jalen Mills. Belichick is rarely bold in free agency — but this? This is one of the boldest demonstrations we’ve ever seen from the Patriots coach.
So let’s break down the day.
Wow
It's not really a takeaway. I recognize that. But I'm tired. Cut me a break. This was a stunning display of spending. If you were like me, keeping up to date with the Patriots' every move, then you're probably feeling gassed. If you were busy with work and saw all the signings at once, they you were probably stunned. This isn't something we're accustomed to seeing from Belichick, even when compared to what he's done in spendy offseasons like 2017 (when he signed Stephon Gilmore, Dont'a Hightower, Lawrence Guy, Rex Burkhead and traded for Brandin Cooks and Kony Ealy). This is simply unprecedented aggression from Belichick. https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1371541116974198784 The Patriots set up deals that would have thing spend over $200 million in the first seven hours of the tampering period. That's $475,000 per minute and $7,900 per second.
So let's review what happened again
Additions: WR Nelson Agholor (signing) WR Kendrick Bourne (signing) TE Jonnu Smith (signing) OLB Matt Judon (signing) DT Davon Godchaux (signing) DB Jalen Mills (signing) OT Trent Brown (traded) DL Henry Anderson (signing) Re-signed: QB Cam Newton DE Deatrich Wise DT Carl Davis CB Justin Bethel Departures: LG Joe Thuney (signed with Chiefs) RT Marcus Cannon (traded to Texans) S Terrence Brooks (signed with Texans)
Ranking the additions
The Patriots added seven new players and re-signed two on Monday. Let's rank them. (That's always fun!) It's not just a ranking of the player -- but also of his contract and how it matched with how I project his production.
TE Jonnu Smith: four years, $50M
OLB Matt Judon: four years, $56M
DL Henry Anderson: two years, $7M
DB Jalen Mills: four years, $24M
WR Kendrick Bourne: three years, $22.5M
DL Carl Davis: TBA
DT Davon Godchaux: two years, $16M
WR Nelson Agholor: two years, $26M
DE Deatrich Wise: four years, $30M
Bill Belichick clearly wanted change -- and upgrades
Before free agency, Belichick swapped out his starter at right tackle: from Cannon to Brown. It was a sign of things to come, with Belichick upgrading at a number of positions. The tight end spot is the clearest upgrade. New England was slated to look to second-year players, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene. But they were a mess in their rookie seasons. And so Smith will be the starter in 2021. His presence has the potential to change the offense. He's an excellent run blocker, pass-catcher and route-runner. He can truly be the whole package. The receivers, Agholor and Bourne, are compliments to one another. Agholor is a clear upgrade of Damiere Byrd. Bourne, meanwhile, has a lot of the same skills as Jakobi Meyers -- though that is one case where Meyers is the superior player. Judon is a fantastic addition to play on the edge opposite Chase Winovich. Slot Dont'a Hightower, who opted out in 2020, in between them and you've got a much-improved linebacking corps. Judon is the parallel image of Smith -- just for the defense. Judon does a lot of different things well, and most of them are what the Patriots did poorly in 2020. Godchaux should anchor the middle of the defense, with help from Anderson and Wise. And Mills provides even more security for a secondary, which has some uncertainty. Jason McCourty is a pending free agent, Stephon Gilmore is on the trade block and J.C. Jackson is a restricted free agent.
Looking at the numbers. Just how aggressive was he?
In the cases of Smith ($31.25 million of $50 million is guaranteed) and Judon ($32 million of $56 million is guaranteed), Belichick seemed to be very aggressive. In the case of Smith, he will make the third most among tight ends. Judon's deal looks like big money but he is tied for just 18th in average earnings per year. Aside from those deals, New England stayed fairly modest with contracts that paid players at the bottom end of the market at their position. Agholor will be at $11 million annually with incentives up to $13 million, per NFL Network's Mike Garafolo. Agholor is tied for 22nd highest paid receiver in the NFL, and will also be the highest-paid Patriots wideout. That begs the question: is he expected to be the WR1? Because that's not really his game. He's more of a complimentary deep threat. (More on that later.) It's a similar story for Godchaux, who will make $8 million per year, which makes him tied for the 30th highest-paid defense tackle. And then while the deals for Bourne ($22.5M), Wise ($30M) and Mills ($24M) seem large at first glance, they are actually a group of inexpensive short-term deals, with the possibility for these players to earn more at the back-end of the deal. They'll only get to that back end of the deal, if they're playing starting-caliber football.
It seems 7-9 didn't sit well with Bill Belichick
So Belichick was uncharacteristically aggressive (as NBC Sports' Tom Curran predicted) -- but the coach somehow managed to mitigate his risk in characteristic ways. Clearly, he didn't like missing the playoffs. This bold sequence of offseason moves seems like a reaction to the Patriots' 7-9 season in 2020. Will it be an overreaction? As we mentioned, the numbers look aggressive -- but not crazy.
Revamping the passing offense
Clearly, the Patriots intend to have Smith take a place as the centerpiece of the passing offense -- and perhaps the offense as a whole. He's ascending player whose athleticism has made him productive and dangerous after the catch. But there's plenty of room to develop him into a more dominant route runner. New England also got aggressive to ensure Agholor would be their outside threat at receiver -- and he could be quite good there after logging 18.7 yards per catch in 2020. Bourne, meanwhile, averaged 2.8 yards of separation in 2020, per NextGen Stats. Maybe his skill set is similar to Meyers. But at the same time, Bourne brings a track record of beating his matchup. Look at New England's film in 2020 -- there wasn't enough of that.
The Patriots' losses in free agency were replaceable
Thuney is one of the NFL's best guards, but the Patriots have an up-and-coming talent at the position: Michael Onwenu. His breakout season in 2020 makes Thuney's departure more palatable. New England also saw Brooks, a special teams standout who couldn't quite hang on defense, leave in free agency. And then the Patriots shipped off Cannon after acquiring his replacement, Brown.
Believe it or not, the Patriots aren't done
Center David Andrews and special teams ace Cody Davis are probably atop New England's list. But the Patriots are currently eyeing running backs, including Leonard Fournette, per MMQB's Albert Breer. New England was interested in upgrading at running back when the tampering period opened, per NFL Network's Michael Giardi. That may be because running backs Rex Burkhead and James White are pending free agents. https://twitter.com/MikeGiardi/status/1371821953921781765 It sounds crazy, but the Patriots don't technically have a top receiver -- and Kenny Golladay is still on the market. It would be pretty wild if they landed another marquee free agent. But it would also be on-brand for this year's free agency. AND UPDATE: The Patriots signed Hunter Henry to three-year, $37.5 million deal. [vertical-gallery id=103081]
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