5 questions Buffalo Bills offense must answer to get to the Super Bowl

ORCHARD PARK - In many ways the playoff failures have overshadowed the fact that we have been spoiled over the past three seasons by the Buffalo Bills dynamic offense.

After nearly two decades of mediocrity, cycling through a series of forgettable quarterbacks that led to a 17-year playoff drought, the Bills have been one of the NFL’s most prolific and exciting offenses since Josh Allen started to become Josh Allen in 2020, the same year Stefon Diggs was acquired in a trade.

Since the start of 2020, the Bills have produced three of the four highest-scoring seasons in team history - 501 points in 2020, 483 in 2021, and 455 in 2022. They finished second, third and second in points, and second, fifth, and second in yards in those years, and coupled with a solid, bend-but-don’t-break defense, Buffalo’s plus-489 point differential is far and away the best in the NFL, a whopping 135 points better than the Chiefs.

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The difference, of course, is that the Chiefs have played in the AFC Championship Game all three of those seasons, winning two and winning one Super Bowl. The Bills lost the 2020 AFC title game in Kansas City, then lost there in the division round in 2021 and lost in the division round at home last year against Cincinnati.

Playing sound defense is important, but if the Bills are going to end their postseason stumbles and finally get to the Super Bowl and win it, Allen and the offense will be the driving force. Here are five questions I have heading into the Monday night opener in New York.

1. Can Josh Allen cut down his turnover-worthy plays?

Heading into his sixth NFL season, Allen is firmly entrenched as one of the top five QBs in the NFL. He has led Buffalo to a 37-12 record in the past three regular seasons, all of which ended with the Bills atop the AFC East.

The numbers over those three years are astounding: A 65.2 completion percentage, a 98.4 quarterback rating, 13,234 passing yards, and 108 touchdown passes. Then add 1,946 rushing yards and 21 more touchdowns to the ledger.

But the one thing that has plagued Allen is turnovers, and it’s an area of his game that he fully understands must improve. Since 2020, Allen has thrown 39 interceptions and lost 15 fumbles.

Pro Football Focus has a stat called turnover worthy plays, defined as passes that had a high percentage of being intercepted, and plays where the QB did not take care of the ball including fumbling.

Allen had 29 turnover-worthy plays in 2022, tied for the most in the NFL with Geno Smith of the Seahawks. In 2021 Allen had 26 TWP’s, tied for third most, and in 2020 it was 23, tied for second most. “I turned the ball over too many times (in 2022),” said Allen, who had 20 of Buffalo’s 27 turnovers including five red zone picks. “Didn’t really bite us all that much, only losing three games in the regular season. But there’s opportunities where it could have.”

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2. Is Gabe Davis ready to have his breakout season?

Diggs certainly things so. “I feel like Gabe Davis will have a breakout year,” he said in training camp. “I think he’s gonna have an amazing year. He’s damn near wide receiver one in my eyes; I feel like if I wasn’t here, Gabe Davis would be a wide receiver one.”

We all thought this was going to happen last year as he was coming off his remarkable playoff game against the Chiefs when he became the first player in NFL history to catch four TD passes in a postseason game. But he suffered an ankle injury in Week 1 and though he missed only one game, it hampered him all year.

True, he set career highs for catches (48), yards (836) and TDs (7), but he also had a drop percentage of 12.7 which was worst in the league among wide receivers. He also had a poor contested catch percentage of 34.8.

As he goes into the last year of his rookie contract, Davis has looked tremendous throughout camp and the preseason and he was just named a captain, an indication of what his teammates think of him. If he does break out, this passing offense could be close to unstoppable.

“I have expectations for myself and the way I play the game and the way I do things,” Davis said. “What everybody else says is just how they feel, I guess. But for me, I’m hard on myself. I work hard to do great things.”

3. Have the Bills finally found capable guards?

The Bills invested heavily in what has been a troubling position for them. They signed left guard Connor McGovern to a three-year, $22 million contract and they used their second-round draft pick on right guard O’Cyrus Torrence. Both will start Monday against the Jets.

General manager Brandon Beane also signed veteran David Edwards who will join Ryan Bates - who can back up at all three interior positions - to give the Bills what looks like pretty reliable depth.

McGovern will be a vast upgrade over Rodger Saffold who was clearly over-the-hill in his last NFL season in 2022. He graded out as one of the worst guards in the league. And on the right side last season, Bates was fine, but he doesn’t have the upside that Torrence has.

4. Will Dalton Kincaid be a true difference-maker?

We saw flashes of what the first-round pick could mean to this offense in his limited exposure in the preseason. He runs good routes, seems to have a knack for understanding coverage and finding an opening, and he can catch just about everything in his radius.

By all accounts, it looks like Kincaid will be the primary slot receiver while Dawson Knox will line up as the traditional in-line tight end. Knox has been a good player for Buffalo, but he has never been able to give the Bills a consistent threat as a downfield receiver in the mold of the best tight ends in the league like Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller and George Kittle.

Not to compare Kincaid to any of those Pro Bowl players, but that’s what the Bills hope Kincaid can eventually be.

When Allen appeared on the Pat McAfee Show a couple weeks ago, he said of the Bills’ tight end situation, “I think him and Dawson on the field together is gonna cause some headaches for defensive coordinators. Just getting those guys matched up with some linebackers and safeties, it’s going to be fun to see how we utilize both of our guys.”

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5. What will the running back rotation look like?

Devin Singletary gave the Bills notable consistency during his four seasons as the primary starter, and there’s something to be said about that. In a pass-first offense, he rushed for 3,151 yards, caught 145 passes for 971 yards and scored 20 touchdowns.

That’s not bad, but James Cook - Buffalo’s second-round pick in 2022 who served as Singletary’s backup as a rookie - could prove to be more productive. Among backs who played at least 100 rush snaps, Cook’s 5.7-yard average per carry was tied for second-best in the NFL. Singletary was 4.6 though he played nearly double the run snaps and had double the amount of carries.

In the passing game, one of the intangibles Beane liked about Cook at Georgia was his ability to catch and run and he should be a more dangerous player than Singletary when those opportunities arise.

Behind Cook, Damien Harris is a solid time-share player. He’s a tough north-south runner who should be able to excel in short yardage and goal line situations which will also have the benefit of taking some of that physical burden off Allen’s body.

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1. To subscribe to Sal's newsletter, Bills Blast, which will come out every Friday during training camp, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: 5 questions Buffalo Bills offense must answer to make Super Bowl