5 major questions for the Oregon Ducks to answer this weekend vs. California
While it may not be their most-hyped matchup of the season, this weekend’s game for the Oregon Ducks is incredibly important. It’s a contest where if you can take care of business and get the job done in a game where you’re favored by more than three touchdowns, it offers the opportunity to step out of the way and watch as potential chaos ensues around the college football world.
Taking care of business is the operative step there, though, and the Ducks have a strong rushing attack that they will be asked to stop inside Autzen Stadium in order to do that.
While Oregon fans should have confidence going into this game, there are some key things to make note of as we wind down for the afternoon kick. Here are some of the biggest questions that I want to see answered at some point on Saturday:
Can Ducks Stop Elite Rushing Attack?
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The Oregon Ducks have a really good rushing defense, ranked 12th in the nation and giving up on average 95.6 rushing yards per game. They haven’t given up over 100 yards on the ground since playing Texas Tech in Week 2.
They also haven’t faced a rushing attack as good as the California Golden Bears all season.
Led by dynamic sophomore Jaydn Ott — a former 4-star RB who once decommitted from Oregon — the Golden Bears have the 19th-ranked rushing attack in the nation, averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground. It’s not just Ott and his 108 rushing yards per game, but Cal also has additional pieces like Isaiah Ifanse and Ashton Stredick to pitch in as well.
While the Ducks have been dominant against the run all year, I’m curious to see how they hold up against one of the best rushing teams in the nation. It will surely be a major test.
Do We See Bo Take on More?
I talked to Oregon legend Joey Harrington earlier this week on the Sco-ing Long Podcast about an odd conundrum that the Ducks are in when it comes to QB Bo Nix and his Heisman campaign.
While Nix is near the top of the Heisman race because of his consistency — he has no games with fewer than 245 yards and 2 TD this year — it would absolutely help his campaign to throw in a performance with some inflated numbers in there to get him on a level playing field when it comes to the other candidates.
Harrington argued that you don’t want to try and chase those numbers because it could get you out of your scheme, and that’s what got Nix in the conversation in the first place.
While I agree, I am curious to see how the Oregon offense handles this going forward. Do they call fewer rushes in goal-to-go situations and instead let Nix throw the ball to try and boost his TD numbers? Does the QB keep it himself a couple more times per game rather than handing it off to try and get the stats on the ground?
All of these are things that we’ve seen Bo do before, particularly in 2022, but when the offense is working as well as it is this season under Will Stein, you don’t want to mess with a good thing. It’s a tough thing to balance, but something I will be watching for certain.
What is the Offensive Ceiling?
The Golden Bears do not have a good defense. That’s just a fact. They give up over 33 points per game (117th in the nation,) while allowing over 400 yards of offense (102nd best), over 260 passing yards per game (114th), and a total of six yards per play (105th).
Put that up against Oregon’s offense, which averages 45.5 points per game (No. 3 in the nation), with over 530 total yards per game (2nd), 316 passing yards (10th), and 7.4 yards per play (3rd), and we could get a blood bath on Saturday.
The question isn’t whether or not the Ducks are going to be able to score points, but rather how many points they’re going to score.
The answer is “however many they want,” in reality.
If Dan Lanning wants to make an offensive statement and put up a 70-burger, then I believe the Ducks are capable of that. Last week, we saw the USC Trojans put up 50 on California with ease, and I am inclined to believe that Oregon’s offense is better than the Trojans’ at this point in the season.
If this is a blowout, the question becomes when Oregon takes its foot off of the gas. If you’re looking at numbers, though, the set over/under of 59.5 might look pretty tasty to you.
Has the Turnover Dam Breached?
(Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
While Oregon’s defense has been incredibly good this season, one of the few areas where their numbers are subpar is in the turnover category. Through nine weeks, the Ducks have just a total of 9 takeaways, which ranks 91st in the nation. Even that number is boosted up by a pair of interceptions from Tysheem Johnson last week vs. Utah.
For comparison, California’s porous defense has 15 turnovers this year, which ranks 18th in the nation.
It’s clear that frequent turnovers gained don’t have a direct correlation to successful defense, but it’s something that certainly helps. So far this year, the Ducks have been playing well below the average in that facet of the game, so it’s fair to assume that we could see them positively regress to the mean going forward. Coaches and players always say that turnovers come in bunches, and once you start getting your hand on a few tipped passes for fumbled footballs, more will come.
So, did the turnover dam breach last week against Utah? We will have to wait and see.
Does Chaos Ensue in the College Football World?
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Like I said in the intro, Saturday is a great opportunity for the Ducks to take care of business against Cal, win as more than three-touchdown favorites, and sit back and watch as potential chaos ensues in the world of college football.
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If you haven’t checked the schedule just yet, then feast your eyes. Throughout the day, we get a slew of ranked matchups and potential upset opportunities that will have major ramifications on the College Football Playoff race — and the Pac-12 Championship race — going forward. Take a look at these matchups that we’re going to keep an eye on:
No. 7 Texas vs. No. 23 Kansas State (9 a.m. PT)
No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 12 Missouri (12:30 p.m. PT)
No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 22 Oklahoma State (12:30 p.m PT)
No. 5 Washington vs. No. 20 USC (4:30 p.m. PT)
No. 8 Alabama vs. No. 14 LSU (4:30 p.m. PT)
All of that is to go without mentioning games between No. 11 Penn State and Maryland, or No. 19 UCLA vs. Arizona as a nightcap, two incredibly upset-worthy matchups.
November has arrived in the world of college football, and this is the time when things get turned on their head. Duck fans should be happy to be out of the fray, so long as they get the job done against Cal earlier in the day.
