5 keys to a Chargers win over Cowboys on Monday Night Football
The Chargers will be at home against the Cowboys on primetime as they look to go over .500 for the first time this season. Getting to 3-2 for the Bolts would be huge after a rocky start to their 2023 campaign.
However, it won’t be easy. Dallas is in need of a statement performance after a blowout loss against the 49ers, which put them two games back of the Eagles in the NFC East. They know a win is needed to keep their division and larger playoff hopes alive.
Without any further ado, here’s how LA can knock off America’s Team.
Feed Austin Ekeler early and often
Austin Ekeler is officially off the Chargers’ injury report and will play for the first time since Week 1. Against the Dolphins, LA’s star running back had 164 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. From both an offensive production and pass-blocking standpoint, Ekeler is a massive boost for the Chargers’ hopes in this game.
In the weeks he’s missed, the pass blocking from Joshua Kelley and Isaiah Spiller has not been good. Neither of those running backs play the safety valve role nearly as actively as Ekeler in the receiving game. He’s a legitimate explosive play threat and the Chargers have missed his presence.
A stat that says it all: Ekeler had 117 rushing yards in Week 1. The Chargers’ running backs in the last three games have had 142 rushing yards combined in his absence.
Getting Ekeler going early opens up the rest of the Chargers offense for more open opportunities as the defense is drawn to his gravity. Kellen Moore has to make an effort to do that consistently on Monday night against his former squad.
A big rebound game from Michael Davis
The Chargers have had multiple weeks, plus the BYE week post-trade, to reconfigure their secondary after the departure of J.C. Jackson. This is what the secondary will look like for the rest of the year, barring injury. The Chargers must go up against high-powered offenses with their cornerback trio of Asante Samuel Jr., Michael Davis, and Ja’Sir Taylor.
To this point in the season, Davis has been the weak link of that group:
Outside CB nearest defender chart!
Yards allowed per coverage snap (x) by EPA allowed per coverage snap (y).
Axes reversed so right and up is best! Note: EPA can be heavily driven by INTs.
If asked to choose, I would probably say x axis is better indicator of overall play. pic.twitter.com/SyGELjF9ed
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) October 13, 2023
Davis has discussed the Chargers’ previous cornerback rotation in the past with the need for each of the cornerbacks to find their “rhythm.” With the unit more stabilized now in their personnel. Hopefully, #43 can find his form. It’s important to remember that there has been high-level play from Davis when he is locked in. 2020 and the back half of last season are examples of that.
Davis will likely be matched up with Michael Gallup on the outside, with some occasional snaps against CeeDee Lamb moving outside.
How many snaps can Joey Bosa play?
Joey Bosa is officially questionable after missing the Raiders game before the BYE. Bosa’s hamstring is officially off the injury report, but his toe remains an issue. The good news is that he was able to register a limited practice designation for the Chargers on Saturday.
Bosa was always likely to play after being able to rest over the BYE, but the question is volume. He played 19 snaps against Tennessee and 28 snaps against Minnesota. Both figures are down from the full workload of 58 snaps against Miami in Week 1.
Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu should be able to hold up their ends of the bargain, but Bosa’s volume will go a long way in determining just how effective this pass rush can be. The Chargers will also be fighting for every pressure, hurry and sack. Dallas’ offensive line is undoubtedly a significant step up from the groups the Chargers played in their first four weeks.
The Chargers will need as much Bosa as they can get. Time will tell if that’s closer to 15 snaps or if he can push it to 25-40.
Maintain 4th down aggression
Chargers’ head coach Brandon Staley has caught flack from the media for unsuccessful 4th down conversions at the ends of the Minnesota and Las Vegas games. The fourth down approach is still about the process of the results for the Bolts’ coaching staff.
Meanwhile, the Cowboys have been one of the most conservative teams in the league in situations when analytical models say that they should go for it:
For first time this season now that we have at least a handful of decisions for most teams.
Which teams go for it when they "should" (small sample size caveat)
Small sample size, again, but seeing the Cowboys down there is painful pic.twitter.com/OKw0PV2505
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) October 10, 2023
The Chargers will need every edge in this Cowboys game. With the state of their defense, moving the chains on fourth downs could be very valuable.
Not every Chargers fan will agree with each of Staley’s fourth-down decisions. But in the macro, it could give them some advantage over Mike McCarthy’s conservative nature.
Containing Micah Parsons
Micah Parsons is coming off his worst game of the season against San Francisco. Trent Williams won all eight of his matchups with Parsons and the Cowboys’ star ended up having just two pressures on the night. It snapped an eight-game streak in which the All-Pro EDGE rusher had 5+ pressures in each game.
Parsons isn’t likely to have a second bad game in a row. Rashawn Slater and Trey Pipkins must be at their best to limit him. On some level, the Chargers’ offensive line will also look to perform better on tape than they did against Las Vegas in Week 4.
Maxx Crosby had eight pressures against the Chargers himself while he opened up opportunities for 17 more pressures from other Raiders players. The Chargers cannot allow Parsons to have that same level of game-breaking impact. Will Clapp will also be critical in his second start of the season as he calls out the signals on the offensive line in relief of Corey Linsley.
