5 Bold Predictions for the Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
In a highly anticipated matchup of top 10 teams in the College Football Playoff rankings, the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners travel to Stillwater to take on the No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Oklahoma faces their rival on the heels of back-to-back subpar performances for an offense that was rolling through Texas, TCU, and Texas Tech. The Cowboys look to be playing the best football they’ve played all season. Oklahoma State boasts one of the best defenses in the country, which will pose a significant challenge to Lincoln Riley and Caleb Williams.
As the Sooners get set to take on the Cowboys, here are 5 Bold Predictions for this week’s matchup.
Sooners force 3 another turnovers
The Oklahoma Sooners are trending in the right direction defensively after solid performances against Baylor and Iowa State. Heading into Bedlam, the Sooners will need their defense to have another great game as it’s likely the offense struggles to get anything going Saturday night against the Oklahoma Sooners’ highly-ranked defense.
Look for the Sooners defensive front to make life incredibly difficult on Spencer Sanders and match last week’s turnover performance with three more in Bedlam.
Caleb Williams Keys Sooners Offense
When the Iowa State Cyclones beat the Oklahoma State Cowboys several weeks ago, it was Brock Purdy who led the way for Iowa State’s offense. Breece Hall was largely kept in check, rushing for 70 yards on 21 carries. Purdy, on the other hand, was 27 of 33 for 307 yards and two touchdowns.
Oklahoma State has a top 10 defense against the pass, but as Purdy showed, they can be vulnerable. In particular, Purdy lived in the short part of the field. 23 of his 33 pass attempts went fewer than 10 yards down the field and he had an average depth of target (aDot) of just 4.6 yards per attempt. Iowa State averaged 7.7 yards after the catch per reception.
Key against the stout Oklahoma State pass rush that leads the nation in sacks is getting the ball out quickly and allowing your playmakers to make plays after the catch.
The key to unlocking Caleb Williams and the Sooners offense is getting the ball out quickly. Lincoln Riley needs to simplify things a bit to allow Williams to play fase. Bubble screens, RPOs, and the quick passing game will help Williams stay clean.
If Williams sits back and holds the ball, looking for the big play, he’s going to get pummeled by Jim Knowles and the Oklahoma State Cowboys’ defense.
Kennedy Brooks averages 4 yards per carry
On the season the Oklahoma State Cowboys are allowing just 2.64 yards per carry. Kennedy Brooks is averaging six yards per attempt. Only Abram Smith is averaging more yards per attempt in the Big 12 among running backs with at least 134 carries on the season. Against the Cowboys, Smith averaged nine yards per attempt on 10 carries.
Against a stout Iowa State run defense, the Sooners were able to make some hay in the second half and that turned the tide in the fourth quarter as Brooks and the offensive line used the running game to help extend the Sooners’ lead to 28-14.
While I’m predicting that Caleb Williams has a good day, the best way to help him have a good day is to be persistent with the running game. As they probe away, they’ll eventually breakthrough. The game script should keep this game close, which should allow the Sooners to keep at it in the running game.
Take the Under
The Oklahoma Sooners have played an uncharacteristic amount of close games in 2021. They’ve fared well and will do so again in Bedlam.
Both teams are playing good defense right now. The Cowboys have been one of the best in the country all season while the Sooners have turned it up over the last couple of weeks.
It would be a shock if the defensive performances from these two teams didn’t continue, so expect a low-scoring affair. Currently, the over/under from Tipico is 49.5. It would be surprising to see these two teams hit the over.
This one has the makings of a good old-fashioned slobber knocker as Jim Ross might say.
Marvin Mims turns it up at the Right Time
Marvin Mims has a bit of a pattern going. He had a 100-yard performance against Texas and then had two games that were under 60 yards receiving. Then he had the electric 100-yard game against Texas Tech before two games against Baylor and Iowa State where he had just three receptions and 39 yards receiving over the two games. So if that pattern holds up, Mims will be in line for another 100-yard receiving effort.
The Sooners need to unlock their passing game. It’s been nonexistent for the last two weeks. Sure, they’ve played tough defenses, but this is a talented group of wide receivers that should be able to win consistently in the passing game.
This week, Marvin Mims helps to restore some confidence in the passing game with a big day for the Oklahoma Sooners.
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