4 reasons a Deshaun Watson trade to the Jags is very unlikely

The biggest storyline of the 2021 NFL offseason will be the fate of Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson, who has made it known he doesn’t want to take another snap for the organization that drafted him. While the Texans haven’t indicated that they will let him go, it hasn’t stopped teams from being interested or national writers from speculating.

Amongst the teams who’ve come up for Watson’s services are the Jacksonville Jaguars due to the assets they have. Throughout their history, they’ve never had a quarterback close to Watson’s talent level and currently have one of the worst signal-caller situations in the NFL.

Still, the Jags doing business with their rivals feels unlikely, and here are four reasons why it probably won’t happen:

They are in the driver's seat for Trevor Lawrence

Dec 19, 2020; Charlotte, NC, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) reacts with offensive tackle Jackson Carman (79) in the second quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Jags have never held the No. 1 overall pick and couldn't have chosen a better time to acquired it than 2021. Of course, that's because they have a direct path to Trevor Lawrence, who is the highest-graded prospect since Andrew Luck. For that reason, they are in position to get a potential franchise quarterback without giving anything up, which is rare for any team. To get Watson, the Texans traded up from the No. 25 spot in the 2017 NFL Draft to the No. 12 spot, which was held by the Cleveland Browns. That required the aforementioned No. 25 overall pick, a first-round pick in 2018, and quarterback Brock Osweiler, who they needed to dump off on another team. Another example was how the Kansas City Chiefs acquired Patrick Mahomes. They traded their 2017 first-round pick (No. 27 overall), their 2017 third-round pick, and their 2018 first-rounder to move up to the No. 10 spot held by the Buffalo Bills. Of course, like the trade for Watson, it worked out but every team isn't lucky. There are other examples, but you all get the point by now, and simply put, there often is a significant price to pay for a franchise signal-caller. The Jags don't have to go down that road if they don't want, especially when considering they are a 1-15 team that needs all the help they can get. That brings me to my next point...

The Jags need more than just a great QB to fix their issues

JACKSONVILLE, FL - NOVEMBER 18: A Jacksonville Jaguars helmet is seen at TIAA Bank Field on November 18, 2018 in Jacksonville, Florida. (Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The Jags only won one game in 2020, so it's safe to say they need more than just a quarterback. That would also indicate that they need all of their three first-round picks within the next two years, even when considering the fact that draft picks aren't guaranteed to translate. With Watson as their quarterback last season, the Texans were 4-12 and that's a reflection of where the Jags might be with him after they give up the assets it would take (see the potential cost here). In other words, it's a chance they may not improve significantly despite how talented Watson is and the available cap space they have. Simply put, losing various early round picks and defensive starters isn't worth the potential to win three, four, five, or even six more games. Instead, a price tag like that needs to get them into the postseason, immediately -- and there is a chance that it wouldn't.

Deshaun Watson may not want to play for the Jags

Sep 10, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) and Jacksonville Jaguars cornerback Jalen Ramsey (20) exchange jerseys after the game at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Any trade sending Watson to another team will have to go through him. He has a no trade clause in his contract, but it appears the clause can be waived by him if he found a destination he likes. That said, the Jags could be on the list of organizations he doesn't want to play for. While owner Shad Khan has removed Tom Coughlin and the issues he brought from the organization, the fact remains that he's still gone 35-105 as an owner, and it's possible that Watson might even want to go to a better franchise. In addition, Watson's agent, David Mulugheta, also represents Jalen Ramsey and honored his request to get out of Jacksonville -- and that's not to knock Mulugheta for simply doing his job, or to say he won’t do business with the Jags. However, this is important because Ramsey was vocal about leaving Jacksonville. That issue alone makes it a hard pitch for Mulugheta to suggest Jacksonville to an established star bigger than Ramsey, even if Mulugheta himself believes things are better in Duval.

As division rivals, it's hard to bail the Texans out if their dysfunction -- even for Watson

Jan 12, 2020; Kansas City, MO, USA; Houston Texans Cal McNair greets the players before the game against the Kansas City Chiefs in a AFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

While the future could be significantly brighter in Duval, Jags fans will be the first to tell someone they know a dysfunctional franchise when they see one. Presently, that's how the Texans can be defined. That said, why help them out of their current situation? Any deal to get Watson would likely need to include the first overall pick, which means the Jags would give the Texans, their divisional rivals, a clear path to Lawrence. In that case, they would have Watson, but would have to deal with him twice a year, or maybe more down the road. So, why not just take Lawrence, watch Watson get shipped out of Houston, and prosper? Many will argue that Watson would give the Jags a proven player and there is no denying that. However, if Lawrence is who most people believe, he's worth the gamble of passing on Watson and just letting the Texans crumble. It's hard to say what the future holds for Watson, but it's also hard to see this ending well for the Texans. The Jags are one of the few teams who could make this a happy ending for Houston, that might be too big of a price in the Jags' eyes with Lawrence waiting to be snagged — even for Watson.