3 ways the Mets can upgrade their rotation heading into 2024
NEW YORK — Aaron Nola will not be doing a reverse Zack Wheeler.
The Mets project to be one of the biggest players in the free-agent pitching market, so Aaron Nola’s seven-year contract with the Philadelphia Phillies means two things: It’s one fewer elite starting pitcher to go after, and it means the level of competition in the NL East remains high.
The Mets currently only have six pitchers on their 40-man roster. One of those pitchers, left-hander David Peterson, recently underwent hip surgery and will start the season on the injured list. Expect the Mets to add roughly five pitchers at various levels.
This might be easier if the Mets weren’t eyeing a return to the postseason in 2024. They could take a resetting year and rely on Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana to provide some stability while left-hander Joey Lucchesi and right-hander Tylor Megill strive for growth. But president of baseball operations David Stearns has made it known that the postseason is the goal next year and every year forward as long as he’s around, so there will be no reset.
It’s tough to know how Stearns will operate this winter since he’s never had this kind of budget to work with. It’s also tough to build a sustainable winner while also trying to contend every year. The Mets don’t have the luxury of a loaded farm system. The pitching pipeline isn’t flowing and the club wants to give their top pitching prospects the proper amount of time to develop.
It’s a challenge, but the Mets hope they can solve it. Here are three ways they could revamp the starting rotation.
Option 1: The 2023 plan
Last winter the Mets signed three free-agent pitchers in three different categories, right-hander Kodai Senga, right-hander Justin Verlander and left-hander Jose Quintana. Senga was looking for his first MLB contract after a standout career in Japan, Verlander was a top-tier free agent signed to replace Jacob deGrom and Quintana was a solid depth signing.
So taking that formula, the Mets could sign Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto, left-handed ace Blake Snell and right-hander Adrian Houser. They work the waiver wires and use minor league signings to add depth at Triple-A.
A rotation of Snell, Senga, Yamamoto, Quintana and Houser is pretty deep. That depth allows the Mets to insert Megill as a sixth starter on occasion and use Lucchesi as the swingman out of the bullpen. Trevor Williams played that role for the Mets in 2022 and former manager Buck Showalter often lamented the loss of him last year.
This would require big money. It would also require losing a draft pick next year to sign Snell since the 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner turned down a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres to become a free agent. If the Mets don’t want to spend like last year, then this isn’t the way to go.
Option 2: One big arm, a lot of depth arms
Pick a name from the top-tier grouping of free agents. Whether it’s Yamamoto, Snell or one without a draft pick attached, like former Yankees left-hander Jordan Montgomery. The soon-to-be 31-year-old was an October hero for the Texas Rangers and should be able to ride that momentum to a big contract.
The Mets could go big with one of them and then sign a group of lower-tier depth starters. The priority here would be guys who can take the ball every 5-6 days and eat innings. Right-hander Lucas Giolito fell apart in Anaheim after the trade deadline this season, but he still made 33 starts and has made at least 30 in each of the last three seasons.
Former Mets right-hander Seth Lugo proved that he can handle a starting job. Left-hander Martin Perez is only a year removed from throwing nearly 200 innings.
The Mets could even grab someone like right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who will miss most of next season rehabbing from shoulder surgery, and sign him to a multi-year contract. This would be a move for the future and maybe even give them another arm for the second half of the season.
The five-ace days are long gone. This plan would allow the Mets to allocate resources to upgrades in the outfield, at DH and in the bullpen.
Option 3: A blockbuster
The Mets could make a big trade for a pitcher under team control. David Stearns drafted and developed Corbin Burnes with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Tampa Bay Rays probably won’t be able to hang on to Tyler Glasnow. Would the Cleveland Guardians make Shane Bieber available?
However, it’s highly unlikely the Mets will make a splashy pitching trade this winter. All of these pitchers are rentals, and while a trade-and-sign isn’t out of the realm of possibility, the Mets would still be required to give up organizational talent. I doubt the Mets will want to part with the few blue-chip prospects they have.
Of course, stranger things have happened. Brodie Van Wagenen famously pulled off a blockbuster deal for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz in December 2018. This is a different time and a different regime, but the Mets still haven’t lost their ability to keep everyone guessing as to what will happen next.
