3 questions Blue Jays must answer during MLB offseason in search for more offence
The Blue Jays need to take a long look in the mirror this winter after another early exit from the MLB playoffs.
There is only one benefit to an early playoff exit: gaining a head start on the upcoming MLB offseason. For the Toronto Blue Jays, that will entail a wide-sweeping reflection on where things went wrong during a frustrating 2023 season.
The top priority will be diagnosing an offence that served as the club’s weakest link throughout the regular season and was held to just one run in the two-game wild-card series against the Minnesota Twins.
Toronto’s baseball operations staff will use this time leading up to the World Series to evaluate all facets of the hitting department, leaving no stone unturned in their search. Those findings will then be delivered to the front office for further debate.
Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins must then collectively determine the best course of action to prevent this outcome from repeating in 2024. But what might that be? Is it personnel changes, a refined approach, new lineup additions, or a mixture of all the above?
That’s what the Blue Jays organization must answer between now and the start of free agency. As part of that process, they’ll likely encounter a trio of key questions that, if answered, should uncover the desired solution.
Can a philosophical change solve a lineup that significantly underperformed?
Heading into this past season, the Blue Jays were supposed to remain a top-10 offence in baseball, even after trading away Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Instead, despite rostering several hitters capable of slugging at a high rate, the lineup endured a season-long power outage that bled into the postseason, leading to just one extra-base hit in the two playoff games.
Toronto’s offence featured “three or four players that fell significantly short” of expectations, as Shapiro detailed during Thursday’s end-of-season press conference. As a result, the club finished 13th in the majors in SLG (.417), 16th in home runs (188) and 18th in ISO (.161).
At the forefront of this offensive underperformance was Vladimir Guerrero Jr., George Springer, Alejandro Kirk and Matt Chapman, whose production fell off a cliff following his April explosion.
The Blue Jays need to hit for more power next season. But how do they accomplish that without selling out for home runs? That’s the tricky part. Part of the solution may lie with their batted-ball distribution and quality of contact output.
Despite owning a high-contact and low swing-and-miss profile, one of the reasons this team struggled in the power department was likely because it prioritized using all three fields. That’s an effective strategy for stringing hits together, but not so much for blasting home runs.
A more effective game plan is attacking the pull side of the outfield, where there’s typically a shorter distance for hitters to crush balls over the fence. Toronto ranked 25th in pull percentage (39.9%) and 16th in fly-ball rate (37.7%) in 2023.
Another factor that plagued the offence may have been its reduced hard-contact output, which led the majors in 2022 (44%) but placed 19th this past season (38.7%).
A brief decline was to be expected, considering Hernández (52.7%) and Gurriel (45.3%) finished first and sixth on the team, respectively, in that regard during their final seasons. But few likely could’ve predicted such significant drop-offs from Kirk (6.7% decline) and Danny Jansen (9.7% decline).
For a lineup that seemed unsure about its identity at times, particularly in the playoffs, a shift back to more of a slugging approach undoubtedly needs to occur. This roster wasn’t built to score runs via contact and speed, so it should probably stop acting like it.
Did the hitting department play a role in the power outage and was there a disconnect between players and coaches?
Altering the offensive approach may work but the individuals presenting that directive will be just as vital as the information itself, which brings us to the Blue Jays’ coaching staff.
Part of these next few weeks will be spent deciding whether any changes occur to the hitting department led by Guillermo Martinez, assistant Hunter Mense and strategist Dave Hudgens. They won’t be the only ones in question, though. So, too, will the analytics and game-planning teams.
They are all intertwined with each other. If one or more facets don’t mesh, the situation becomes chaotic and falls apart — a recurring theme of Toronto's 2023 offence.
Based on track records alone, the Blue Jays' offence should’ve hit for more power than it ultimately did. Everyone knew they’d have to score runs differently, but not to the extent of dropping from a top-10 team in home runs to a middle-of-the-pack club in just one season.
Such a dramatic swing suggests one of two things: not everyone was on the same page about the offence’s identity, or unclear messaging was being sent throughout the organization. Or perhaps it was a mixture of both.
It’s also possible that Blue Jays hitters stopped buying what the coaching staff was selling. However, if that’s the case, management may need to consider more drastic personnel changes this winter.
Either way, Toronto’s baseball ops must determine how deep the problem runs, if at all.
How significant do the external additions need to be this winter?
Once those top two matters get settled, it comes down to roster decisions and determining whether the Blue Jays as currently constructed possess a sufficient number of reliable sluggers.
Even if Guerrero, Springer and Kirk positively regress, this lineup will still be without enough middle-of-the-order thump, especially with Chapman entering free agency and unlikely to return, judging by Atkins’ past-tense comments last Saturday.
Losing Chapman — who finished sixth in SLG (.424) among qualified Blue Jays hitters in 2023 — would only add to this power dilemma, let alone the defensive vacancy it would create at the hot corner.
One factor Toronto’s front office has to keep in mind is its youth at the Triple-A level. A full season of Davis Schneider should lead to improved slugging, at least theoretically. As could opportunities for prospects Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez.
That could also impact the type of external additions this franchise targets over the offseason. Amidst a slim free-agent class, particularly for position players, the preference may be to pursue high-impact platoon bats rather than everyday ones to prevent roadblocks from forming.
That could mean acquiring players like Joc Pederson, Joey Gallo or Jeimer Candelario as opposed to All-Stars such as Shohei Ohtani or Cody Bellinger.
Not only would that route be friendlier on Rogers Communications’ wallet, it would also lead to a group of contributors joining the fray rather than the arrival of just one or two. It could also ensure the club’s 26th roster spot isn’t under-utilized for a second consecutive season.
With that search, it’ll be critical not to overcorrect to the point where the Blue Jays sacrifice more defence than they’d prefer in favour of power at the plate, causing an undesired shift toward the 2022 roster’s flawed identity.
