3 predictions that will shape the Lightning’s season

TAMPA — The Lightning might have us right where they want us, with pundits predicting their downfall, setting Tampa Bay up to prove everyone wrong again on the way to another deep playoff chase of the Stanley Cup.

Yes, last season’s first-round playoff exit was disappointing, especially the three home overtime losses that led to the Maple Leafs taking the series. But it was a valuable reminder that it’s not that easy to get to the Cup final in today’s NHL, and if offered the Lightning time to recover mentally and physically after some short offseasons.

Still, national experts are predicting doom in Tampa Bay, some saying this is the year the team actually misses the playoffs. And that was before learning that the Lightning would be without goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy to open the season.

Slow down. The Lightning aren’t done yet.

The success that the team had over the past decade was largely done in the shadows. The Lightning aren’t a Canadian team. They don’t play in a huge hockey market. They go largely ignored nationally — their greatness often questioned — until the eve of the postseason when those who speak loudest suddenly notice Tampa Bay exists on a map.

Here, where we watch the Lightning every game, we know better.

Which leads us to three predictions about the 2023-24 Lightning, who are probably better than even local diehards think.

Lightning will be fine short term without Vasy

Make no mistake, going into the season without the league’s top goaltender could be devastating. But the Lightning have overcome the loss of a top player before. They played a whole regular season without Nikita Kucherov, were without Anthony Cirelli for the first eight weeks last season, and have been through stretches missing Steven Stamkos and Brayden Point. They were fine every time.

Let’s say Vasilevskiy doesn’t return until two months into the season as expected. He will rejoin the team 30 games in, which is more than one-third into the regular-season slate. That’s more than enough time for the Lightning to either put themselves in a favorable playoff position or even fall out of the race. And the past several seasons, the Lightning have done the former, essentially locking up a playoff position by the end of the calendar year.

The Atlantic Division should be a lot more competitive from top to bottom, so there won’t be as many easy points on the schedule. But outside of the first two weeks, the Lightning really don’t have many division games through the first two months. Three of their first four games — all making up the first road trip of the season — and seven of their first 13 games come against division foes. After that the Lightning have just one game (a Nov. 20 home game against Boston) against an Atlantic Division opponent over their next 16 matchups.

Also, just 13 of the Lightning’s first 30 games are against teams that made the playoffs last season. That suggests an easier path to munching points early, but one thing’s for sure: They will have to play better on the road than last season; from the beginning of November into mid-December, 15 of 23 games are away from Amalie Arena.

Whether Jonas Johansson or Matt Tomkins carries the load or the Lightning end up seeking an external option, the team’s early-season success is less about who is in net and more about how the Lightning play in front of the goalie. They leaned on Vasilevskiy to bail them out many times and that ends now. They made some defensive system changes they believe will help, and history says they can thrive.

Anthony Cirelli finally enters national spotlight

Cirelli has been one of the league’s top two-way forwards for a while now, but outside of Tampa Bay, he never quite gets the credit he deserves. The Lightning will need more from him — and he already does a lot, playing second-line center and on both power-play units.

He could see additional time on the top power-play unit, filling Alex Killorn’s spot down low at the net. Cirelli is an easy fit because it involves a lot of important roles: screening the net, digging the puck out from behind the goal while being a facilitator down low, and of course, pouncing on rebounds around the net.

Cirelli has finished in the top five in voting for the Selke Trophy — given to the league’s top defensive forward — twice in the past four seasons. But his lack of big offensive numbers has kept him from winning. Being on the power play will help that because he’ll certainly get more scoring chances. Remember that Killorn’s goal-scoring numbers got a boost when he became a major part of the Lightning’s power play.

Also, Cirelli is healthy. Last season, offseason shoulder surgery shelved him for the first eight weeks of the season, and he struggled to find his footing early on. We see Cirelli’s career-low shooting percentage of 9.9% last season as an anomaly. By the playoffs, he was unquestionably one of the Lightning’s top players. He’s been able to have a normal offseason and is clearly embracing a bigger leadership role as veterans continue to depart.

Consider those factors and there’s enough to believe that Cirelli can jump from a 40-point player to a 60-point producer. And others will take notice.

Waltteri Merela will score 10 NHL goals this season

This is a bold one, but Merela has already made the case that he’s worth going out on a limb for.

He might not make the opening night roster, but Merela has certainly shown he’s worthy of a roster spot. While his NHL arrival might not be immediate, he definitely has worked his way to the top of the short list of forward callups if a hole opens up.

Because he’s playing in North America for the first time, he could be better suited to start the season at AHL Syracuse so he can continue adjusting to smaller rinks and a faster pace. That way he’s a more complete player when he comes to Tampa Bay because once he’s here, the Lightning prefer that he remains for good.

But it shouldn’t take that long. Merela has a winning pedigree after claiming back-to-back championships in Finland’s top pro league. He already has shown a strong work ethic.

He has size and can skate. He can kill penalties. He is a relentless forechecker, which will suit him well in the bottom-six role that he’d likely have initially.

But he can also play in front of the net and outrace opponents, which will earn him scoring opportunities, and maybe even some looks on the power play or in a top-six forward position.

When you consider that, it’s not necessarily a reach to think he could reach double digits in goals. Remember, Ross Colton scored nine goals in 30 games when he received his first taste of the NHL as a midseason callup in 2020-21. Merela could be next.

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