2024 NFL Scouting Combine: Running Backs and Wide Receivers Recap
In the days leading up to the 2024 NFL Scouting Combine, I took to the writing streets to touch on some fantasy-relevant players (QB/RB/WR/TE) to keep an eye on the following week.
2024 NFL Scouting Combine: Quarterbacks and Tight Ends to Watch
2024 NFL Scouting Combine: Running Backs and Wide Receivers to Watch
With the combine now behind us, it's time to go back and recap some of the performances we saw and what it could mean for these prospects as they prepare for the 2024 NFL Draft.
Admittedly, I'm not one who buys into the combine predicting future NFL success. However, we also know how well a player tests can prove more impactful for some than others. Elite tight ends are often proven to be some of the best athletes in the game, while subpar athletes at the position tend to make less of an impact — at least as far as fantasy points are concerned.
For those unfamiliar with Relative Athletic Score (RAS), it's "a metric that can easily and intuitively gauge a player's athletic abilities relative to the position they play," according to Kent Lee Platte, the owner of RAS.football. Check out his site and follow him on social media @MathBomb if you want to learn more. It's safe to say that in recent years, Platte's RAS has become a staple in the football analyst community — particularly online.
Below is a look at how third-round tight end Travis Kelce tested at the 2013 NFL Scouting Combine and the elite RAS he posted.
In this article, I will discuss the running back and wide receiver performances. Please also be sure to read my last article, where I recap the quarterback and tight end workouts.
NOTE: Stats and information courtesy of PFF.com, RotoViz.com, and SportsReference.com.
Running Backs
Blake Corum, Michigan
Things couldn't have gone much better for Blake Corum at the combine. The four-year Michigan back ran an acceptable 4.53 40-yard dash and was above average in explosiveness testing.
Corum proved elite in the three-cone and short shuttle drills, finishing in the top three amongst backs in his class while historically ranking in the upper percentile. His 27 reps on the bench press were also top-notch.
The biggest concern for Corum will be his size and the decline we saw in his performance from 2021 through 2023. His yards per carry, yards per carry, YCO/ATT, missed tackles forced rate, and breakaway rush percentages all dropped during those seasons, and he was hit with a season-ending knee injury late into the 2022 season.
However, the athleticism displayed at the combine checked a critical box for the former Wolverine. His years of production in the Big Ten coupled with his combine performance could be enough for a team to use a high Day 2 pick on him.
Jaylen Wright, Tennessee
As expected, Tennessee's Jaylen Wright blew away the combine. The former Feldman Freak blew away the competition with a 4.38 40-yard dash while also posting an 86th-percentile vertical jump and a 98th-percentile broad jump per MockDraftable.com, and boasts a RAS of 9.82.
A true early-declare who spent just three seasons at Tennessee, Wright made the most of his lone season as the Volunteers' starter, rushing for 136-1010-4 (7.4 YPC) while also ranking third amongst FBS running backs (min. 100 carries) in YCO/ATT at 4.35 Wright also forced a missed tackle on 31.6 percent of his carries in 2023 — another elite mark.
Wright also caught 22 passes for 141 scoreless yards last season and could become a legitimate receiving threat at the pro level. Wright's age, elite athleticism, and 2023 breakout continue to make him an enticing prospect for me.
Audric Estimé, Notre Dame
Audric Estimé checked in at 5-foot-11, 221 pounds, looking like every bit the bruiser we thought he was. His 4.71 40-yard dash is an immediate red flag on his profile. Estimé rebounded with elite performances in the vertical and broad jumps and carries an RAS of 8.13, but the 40 time is undoubtedly concerning.
Looking at the RotoViz Prospect Workout Explorer, which comps players with similar size and workout metrics to one another, Estimé is comped to only two players who averaged 10.0 plus fantasy points per game through their first three seasons (James Robinson and Joique Bell) and has mostly underwhelming comps when considering size/speed.
As mentioned before, the combine is only one piece of the puzzle when it comes to predicting future NFL success. The Prospect Workout Explorer doesn't take into consideration Estimé's last two years of production, his career 4.05 YCO/ATT, or the fact he forced a missed tackle on 28.5 percent of his carries.
It also doesn't know that Estimé caught all 26 of his college targets in his career and averaged an impressive 10.7 YPR. Estimé's combine was mildly concerning. I'm in no way out on him as a prospect, but the slow 40 is something to keep in mind.
Braelon Allen, Wisconsin
Nobody will be concerned about Braelon Allen's size at the next level. The former Badger, who will play all of the 2024 season as a 20-year-old running back, checked in at 6-foot-1, 235 pounds, and impressed 26 reps on the bench press. Allen avoided running the 40-yard dash, but his vertical and broad jumps both fell below the 40th percentile for running backs.
His 9-1/4 inch hands also ranked in the 47th percentile for running backs.
There were already concerns that Allen wouldn't test well, and even without a 40-yard dash time, that's all but been confirmed. Unless he surprises with a much-improved Pro Day, Allen will enter the draft as a below-average athlete at the running back position who also saw a two-year decline in production after an impressive breakout in 2021 as a 17-year-old freshman.
The optics surrounding Allen could be better, but his size will be a draw for teams.
MarShawn Lloyd, USC
USC's MarShawn Lloyd had the kind of combine we would have liked to see from Audric Estimé. At 5-foot-8, 220 pounds, Lloyd blazed a 4.46 40-yard dash and had passable numbers in the vertical and broad jumps. Small hands will be a red flag for Lloyd, whose 8-3/4 inch hands are 14th percentile for the running back position, but teams will be more inclined to chase his size, athleticism, and production rather than fade him for small hands.
Like Jaylen Wright, Lloyd is another three-year player who saw his best season come in 2023 and slowly improved over every season. In his final season, Lloyd totaled 1,048 yards from scrimmage and nine touchdowns while averaging an explosive 8.2 yards per touch.
Lloyd's combine performance may have resulted in some teams moving him up draft boards, likely locking him in as a solid Day 2 pick.
Isaiah Davis, South Dakota State
South Dakota State's Isaiah Davis is an FCS producer who needed a solid combine to stand out in this year's class. Davis measured in at an even six feet and weighed 218 pounds. With a 4.57 40 time and overall RAS of 8.72 RAS, Davis' combine certainly didn't hurt his draft stock, but where he'll go in the draft is still anyone's guess.
A four-year producer at South Dakota State, Davis rushed for 677-4552-50 for his career and averaged an impressive 4.26 YCO/ATT while forcing a missed tackle on 30.3 percent of his carries.
His numbers are eerily similar to fellow South Dakota State running back Pierre Strong (627-4525-40), but a solid combine didn't stop Strong from going in the fourth round. Since then, he's been traded from the Patriots to the Browns and has struggled to earn playing time in the NFL.
Strong was also the far better athlete.
It goes without saying that I love Davis' numbers. My hope is that at least one NFL team is as high on him as I am.
Wide Receivers
Xavier Worthy, Texas
Let's go ahead and get this one out of the way.
Texas' Xavier Worthy walked away from last week's NFL Combine, boasting himself as the fastest man in its history. His 4.21 40-yard dash broke the record of 4.22 set by Washington's John Ross in 2017.
The breaking of Ross' record quickly resulted in analysts reminding everyone that raw speed doesn't necessarily translate to NFL success. If you didn't know that, now you do.
Some even went as far as comparing Worthy to Ross, who, from a size/athleticism perspective, looks very similar.
Note: The 4.22 40-time shown on Worthy's RAS does not accurately reflect the 4.21 time he was officially credited with at the combine.
While it's easy to look at Worthy and compare him to Ross and immediately rule him out as a potentially good NFL player, a few things should be mentioned.
Before getting into things, I want to point out that I'm not trying to sell Ross' NFL career as something it wasn't. He struggled mightily as a pro and hasn't taken an NFL snap since 2021. That said, he also entered the league with a lengthy injury history dating back to his days at Washington. The fine folks at DraftSharks.com provide us with a quick look at what Ross had already been through before he ever took an NFL snap.
Worthy's most significant injuries while at Texas, again, per DraftSharks, were what appeared to be a minor ankle injury last season and a fractured finger in 2022.
In addition to the stark difference in injury history, Worthy also broke out at Texas as a true freshman with a breakout age of 18.6. Ross's breakout at Washington came in his sophomore season. His breakout age of 20.1 is nearly two full years more than Worthy's.
The fine folks at RotoViz have written several pieces on breakout age and its predictability power for wide receiver prospects. If you're interested in learning more about breakout age, I'd encourage you to check out the two articles below.
How Should We Measure College Breakouts? The Wrong Read, No. 55 — Blair Andrews
Improvements to Breakout Age Make it Even More Effective in Locating Wide Receiver Gems — Matt Spencer
From a breakout age perspective, Worthy and Ross aren't even worth mentioning in the same conversation—in my humble opinion.
Sticking with RotoViz, their Box Score Scout tool offers statistical comparisons for a player's collegiate career. It has become one of my go-to resources for gauging incoming players. When applying second-round draft capital to Worth in the box score scout, Worthy's five closest comps reveal players we are more than familiar with.
Of the players shown above, only two had a breakout year before their 20th birthday. Unsurprisingly, both are Worthy's two closest comps — Rondale Moore and DeSean Jackson. If you expand the statistical comps to show the closest 10 players, John Ross still doesn't make the list, but burners like Mike Wallace and K.J. Hamler come in right behind Jalin Hyatt.
Worthy is a true early declare who totaled 198 receptions for 2,767 yards and 26 touchdowns during his three years at Texas. Among 129 receivers in the last three draft classes, Worthy's 0.279 YPRR ranks 27th, while his 7.2 YAC/REC is good for 19th. For what it's worth, Ross had a TPRR of 0.306 and a YAC/REC of 6.8 for his career, but again, the later breakout and injury history still makes him a difficult comp for me.
Whether or not Worthy hits at the NFL level is anyone's guess, but his college profile and early breakout suggest he's a player who could enjoy a successful NFL career if he holds up.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Like several top quarterback prospects, Marvin Harrison Jr. opted out of the combine workouts and will instead complete a full workout at Ohio State’s Pro Day, which is scheduled for March 20th.
Harrison checked in at 6-foot-3, 209 pounds, which was what we expected to see but had surprisingly short arms. His arm length ranked in the 46th percentile for wide receivers, while his wingspan fell in the 58th percentile. His draft stock won't take a hit, and people won't change their projections because of his short arm measurements, but there's no denying it caught the attention of analysts during combine week.
Malik Nabers, LSU
Like Harrison, LSU's Malik Nabers will also save his workout for his school's Pro Day. Unlike Harrison, Nabers opted to skip the measurement portion of the combine as well, making LSU's Pro Day, which is scheduled for March 27th, one to watch. Nabers and quarterback Jayden Daniels will both go through a full slate of measurements and workouts at their Pro Day.
Rome Odunze, Washington
Regarded by many as the WR3 of this year's class, Washington's Rome Odunze turned in an impressive 4.45 40-time at nearly 6-foot-3, 212 pounds, and also turned in vertical and shuttle numbers that were 85th-percentile or better.
With elite size and athleticism, Odunze did more than solidify his case for being a top pick in next month's draft. Odunze averaged a respectable 5.2 YAC/REC for his career and caught 52.7 percent of his 55 contested targets for his career. Wherever he lands, Odunze will make one quarterback/offensive coordinator more than happy as a high-end WR2 early in his career.
There are a handful of landing spots where it wouldn't be surprising to see Odunze earn WR1 snaps/targets.
Brian Thomas, LSU
Jayden Daniel's incredible 2023 Heisman campaign featured not one but two potential first-round picks at receiver. While Malik Nabers is a lock to go in the first, Brian Thomas continues to build his case.
Thomas broke out for 68-1177-17 in his third and final season at LSU, averaging a blistering 17.3 YPR and a 13.9 ADOT. Amongst Power Five receivers who saw at least 20 deep targets last season, Thomas' 68.2 percent catch ranked led the pack — as did his 12 touchdowns on said targets. His 670 receiving yards were second only to Rome Odunze.
Thomas measured just below 6-foot-3, but weighed in at 209 pounds and proved to be an elite athlete in every test — as shown above.
He remains one of my favorite receivers to stack in early best ball drafts, as his mid-to-late first-round draft capital may place him in a top-10 NFL offense. It's no secret that the Bills, Ravens, and Chiefs could all use at least one more high-end receiver.
Troy Franklin, Oregon
Draft analysts immediately became concerned when Troy Franklin weighed in at 176 pounds despite his 6-foot-2 height. The former Duck's 4.41 40-time and 39-inch vertical were both high marks, but his slender frame will be of concern to some.
We saw the same concerns for DeVonta Smith when the Heisman Trophy winner weighed in at 170 pounds, hear his name called as the WR3 in the 2021 NFL Draft when the Eagles selected him with the 10th overall pick. Through three NFL seasons, Smith has totaled 240-3178-19 and has had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons after totaling 916 yards as a rookie. Durability at the NFL game was a major concern for Smith, who has missed one regular season game in his career.
Franklin proved to be one of the nation's top deep threats last season, totaling 81 catches for 1,383 yards and 14 touchdowns while hauling in 56 percent of his 25 deep targets. In 2022, Franklin caught 60 percent of the 15 deep targets he saw.
His slender frame is a concern, but as the league continues to welcome stereotypically undersized receivers, it shouldn't be enough to move teams off of him. Jameson Williams (6'1/179) still managed to go to the Lions with the No. 12 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft, and the games he's missed have not been due to his size or lack thereof.
Johnny Wilson, Florida State
Considered by some to be a candidate to make the switch to tight end at the pro level, Florida State's Johnny Wilson plans to try his hand at receiver to start his career.
One of the tallest receivers to ever enter the league, Wilson measured in at 6-foot-3, 231 pounds, and still managed to run a 4.52 40-yard dash while excelling in the vertical and broad jump drills.
Already one of the more intriguing prospects in this year's class, Wilson's athleticism makes him all the more interesting for evaluation. His 3.36 YPRR and 20.9 YPR in 2022 led all Power Five receivers (min. 50 targets), although it's worth noting both numbers took a hit in 2023 — with his YPR falling to 15.0 and his YPRR settling in at 2.42.
Regardless, Wilson could hear his name called on Day 2 and would make for a fun receiver that an offense could use to exploit size mismatches.
Isaiah Williams, Illinois
I mentioned Isaiah Williams as a player to watch ahead of the combine after falling in love with the shiftiness he displayed during his days at Illinois. Be sure to check back on that article, where I included a YouTube link to some of his career highlights.
A former quarterback turned wide receiver in 2021, Williams is still relatively new to the receiver position but was an immediate contributor after the switch.
His elusiveness showed up at the combine when he posted a solid 6.75 three-cone time, and his 38-inch vertical was also good to see. With that said, at 5-foot-9, 182 pounds, we would have liked to see something better than the 4.63 40-time he posted. It's not a death blow to his draft stock, but for a player already expected to go on Day 3, going outside of the first four rounds could prove problematic for his long-term fantasy outlook.
Perhaps even more problematic for Williams is that he averaged an ADOT of just 6.9 for his career. Of the 129 receivers in the last three receiver draft classes, only fellow 2024 draft prospect Malachi Corley has a lower career ADOT (6.8). Williams may be looking at an uphill climb toward playing time early in his career.
