2023 Rookie Running Back Review, Part One: Jahmyr Gibbs Dynasty RB1

With only three games left in the 2023-24 postseason, it’s time to look back at the rookie class and see how it stacked up to previous drafts. I’ll be referring to a player’s production as a percentile (i.e., 74th percentile fantasy output). This is the percentile rank of a player’s rush attempts, rush yards, or fantasy points on a per-game basis compared to all backs drafted on the same day of the draft since the year 2000. This gives us a few lenses to look through while using draft capital to set an expectation. Players needed to appear in five or more games to qualify. This should give some context to how good (or bad) a season was and make it easy to spin things forward to a dynasty and 2024 redraft focus. Be on the lookout for Part Two of the running backs breakdown later this week.

Bijan Robinson, Falcons

Robinson was billed as the next great running back prospect in the vein of Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. To say he failed to live up to the lofty expectations would be an understatement. Plenty of that disappointment stems from Arthur Smith’s mercurial player usage. Robinson only saw 45 percent of the Falcons' carries while splitting time with Tyler Allgeier. Robinson totaled three carries inside the five-yard line all year. Allgeier saw that many goal line carries in Week 1, though he would only end the year with six such carries. Despite playing on an absurdly run-heavy team, Robinson finished the year below the 50th percentile for a first-round rookie in carries per game. He barely crossed the 50th percentile threshold in yards while his strong role through the air allowed him to finish in the 63rd percentile of fantasy production.

What was almost more disappointing than his usage was his efficiency. Robinson wasn’t inefficient by any measure, but he didn’t crush the advanced metrics either. He ranked 18th in yards after contact per attempt, 31st in Pro Football Focus rushing grade, and 12th in Next Gen’s yards over expected per carry. The good news is that a lot will change in Atlanta over the next few months. A new head coach will be hired and they will bring a new scheme plus different (read: more logical) player usage. The Falcons will almost certainly get a new quarterback under center as well. As far as his dynasty outlook is concerned, Robinson’s rookie season was a downturn but not a collapse. The next running back on this list now ranks ahead of Robinson in my dynasty ranking, but I still have Robinson as easily a first-round dynasty pick in startups.

Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions

Gibbs’ ability to earn a substantial role as a rookie was questioned by many and that initially appeared to be playing out on the field. He logged snap shares under 50 percent in two of his first three games and then got hurt in the fourth. When he returned, David Montgomery was banged-up and Gibbs took over the backfield. When the two were healthy late in the season, Gibbs earned the right to see more goal line and early-down work. From Week 9 through the end of the regular season, the rookie averaged 13 carries for 70 yards and .9 touchdowns per game while also catching 3.5 balls for 22 yards per week. Gibbs' rushing metrics still looked modest by the end of his first season, but a 74th percentile fantasy output among first-round backs paints a better picture of how successful his debut was.

Gibbs also bested Robinson in rushing yards over expected per carry, yards after contact per attempt, and PFF rushing grade. The only downside is that Montgomery is under contract for two more years and has played well as a member of the Lions. The backfield split in Detroit will undoubtedly continue into 2024. However, Gibbs has had no issues putting up points in the current iteration of the Lions’ offense and will be a league winner if Montgomery ever misses time. That combination of floor and ceiling has him as the RB1 overall in my dynasty rankings.

Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks

Charbonnet opened the year as purely a backup, seeing most of his work on passing downs. Ken Walker eventually got hurt, putting Charbonnet in a position to dominate the Seattle backfield and break out. He did the first of those two things but only managed 13 PPR points per game from Week 11 to Week 13.

Charbonnet finished below the 50th percentile in yards, carries, and fantasy points for a second or third-round rookie. He was a solid runner but didn’t pop in any advanced metrics. The UCLA alum also struggled in yards per route run. He’s a good backup, but it’s hard to see him forcing the issue for more touches unless he takes another step. Even then, he will only be a committee back alongside Walker. Charbonnet has massive spike week potential and will likely make good on that promise at least a few times over the next two years. On the other hand, you can say that about plenty of backups, and most of them won’t cost you as much to acquire in dynasty leagues.

Kendre Miller, Saints

Miller was banged up and never earned the trust of his team as a rookie. He finished the year with just 41 carries for 156 yards and a single touchdown. He ranks just below the 30th percentile in carries and yards per game for a Day Two pick. Jamaal Williams is a cut candidate—though the team would have to designate him as a post-June 1st cut to get any savings—and Alvin Kamara will turn 29 in the summer. Miller could enter his second year as the clear backup to a veteran who may be out of the way at the end of the 2024 season.

Among all Day Two running backs since 2018, Miller sits directly between Alexander Mattison and AJ Dillon in terms of fantasy production per game as a rookie. He ranks similarly in attempts and yards. Even second and third-round rookies who don’t do much in their debut are likely to increase in value in the following seasons. However, the names just below these three on the list are:

• Darrynton Evans

• Trey Sermon

• Ke'Shawn Vaughn

• Tyrion Davis-Price

Miller barely cleared a bar that separates players who didn’t make any noise in their careers from those who did. He’s worth making an effort to buy low on, but I wouldn’t go crazy when trying to land him.

Tyjae Spears, Titans

It wasn’t a surprise to see Spears playing early in his career. He was a second-round pick with elite hands and the Titans have typically used a back other than Derrick Henry on passing downs. It was, however, a surprise to see him used this much. Spears played exactly as many offensive snaps as Henry. He logged 152 touches for 838 yards and three scores. As expected, Spears was a strong receiver, earning the 15th-best mark in yards per route run and the eighth-highest Pro Football Focus receiving grade. He graded out well in PFF’s rushing metrics as well.

Spears finished his rookie season below the 40th percentile in rush attempts and yards for a Day Two back but boosted his fantasy output over the 50th percentile via his receiving work. With Henry blocking his path to more touches, that feels like a massive win. Henry is expected to walk in free agency, paving the way for Spears to earn an elite role in his second season. I expect the hype for him in dynasty circles to take off in the offseason.