2023 Kentucky Derby week at Churchill Downs: Ed DeRosa's picks, analysis for Champions Day
Wednesday is Champions Day at Churchill Downs. And while that puts us two and three days out from crowning new Kentucky Oaks and Derby winners, it is a great day to remember all the great horses who have raced beneath the Twin Spires.
My personal favorites are 1998 Kentucky Derby winner Real Quiet, 2009 Kentucky Oaks winner Rachel Alexandra, and Firecracker winner Wise Dan, who now has that race named after him. The great thing about horse racing, though, is we can all be champions every day. We’re just one bet away from a big score. Maybe today’s the day!
Here are my picks for each Champions Day race:
Race 1: 4-5-2
Scared off a bit by No. 2 Locally Owned’s morning-line price (8-to-5), so going to look to No. 4 Allege, who has had success going long. He stretches back out for his second start of his 6-year-old season and attracts Tyler Gaffalione. Hoping for some aggression, as these 1 ¼-mile races that aren’t the Kentucky Derby are often won on the front end.
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Race 2 picks: 8-1-10
No. 8 Sonofaship broke on top from a middle post in his previous race then backed up a bit before rallying for second. Gaffalione keeps the mount, making him our pick to sweep the early double. No. 1 Prince of Power was marooned in the outside post last out but did show some improvement second time out and can outrun his odds from the rail.
Race 3 picks: 6-8-7
Popular at the claim box, No. 6 My Redemption makes his first start for trainer Larry Smith, who has had a great 2023 to date. This is a one-turn mile, and the gelding’s last win came around one turn. No. 1 That Khenny looks vulnerable as the morning-line favorite. Those Horseshoe Indianapolis races greatly favor speed.
Race 4 picks: 16-8-13-9
No. 16 Sweet Trouble needs some scratches to draw in, but no doubt this one would factor in her two-turn turf debut after just missing last out following an awkward start and wide voyage. Ships in following bullet work. No. 8 Gloria’s Princess squarely is the filly to beat if there are no scratches.
Race 5 picks: 1-7-2
Speed, the rail and a drop in class should have No. 1 Towing pulling Rafael Bejarano to victory, even off the layoff. No. 7 Lemon Drop Shot will hope someone goes with Towing to set up his kick. Jockey Ramon Vazquez, who pilots Practical Move in the Kentucky Derby, is in to ride.
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Race 6 picks: 9-11-10
Looking to the outside to start the late Pick 5 with No. 9 Proud Foot an intriguing play at 8-to-1 morning-line. The First Samurai mare needs to find a little more than what we saw in the last two races, but she fits among these and the price is right.
Race 7 picks: 2-4-8
Another inside speed pick with No. 2 Zippin Gigi getting the nod to snap a five-race losing streak. He’s been in the mix in each of the last three tries but maybe the long sprint (7 ½ furlongs) will help him stretch that speed. Brian Hernandez Jr. remains loyal.
Race 8 picks: 7-6-4
Hoping the connections of No. 7 Next help us get the morning-line price of 8-to-5, as this is certainly his race to lose on the front end. Twelve furlongs is a big ask off a 6-month layoff, but when that’s your specialty I’m more forgiving. No. 6 Warrant at 10-to-1 merits a look just based on being 8-to-1 in a Grade 1 two back and 3-to-2 last out in a similar stakes.
Race 9 picks: 3-10-8
Some price potential here with No. 3 Sassy Nature looking to go all the way with inside speed. She was overmatched last out, but her Gulfstream tries can win this at a generous 8-to-1 morning-line. No. 10 American Apple was overmatched from the outside last out, but if she can improve in her second start as a 3-year-old then she’s dangerous at 20-to-1 morning-line.
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Race 10 picks: 8-4-7
Giving a big chance to No. 8 Officer Quigley making his first start for Al Stall Jr., who trains for breeder Bruno De Julio. The Vancouver colt is out of a dam who’s already thrown three winners, and he has a mix of fast times and gate works in preparation for this. No. 4 Forever Cool adds blinkers for the drop in class, the latter of which is typically not favorable for trainer Dallas Stewart (who also owns and breeds), but Luis Saez up intrigues.
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This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby 2023 expert picks for Champions' Day at Churchill Downs
